TS Fay: August 19 Update A

O.k... so you knew I wasn't really going to sleep in, didn't you? Not with
a storm out there!

Fay made landfall around 5am ish on the SW FL coast at Cape Romano, just
south of Naples. She didn't intensify and is still a mid-to-strong TS with
winds of 60mph, even though her central pressure is 988mb. She does have a
lot of convective activity so this will be a rain event for Florida, and
closer to the center there looks like there are some very strong
thunderstorms and the occasional tornado.

Track: She made the NNE turn over night and is currently moving NNE at
9mph. The forecast has her crossing the state and exiting into the
Atlantic in the Cape Canavaral area, and then recurving back to make a
third Florida landfall (apparently she's really got it in for Florida).
I'll get the latest pressure maps at around 10.30 hopefully and will send
out an update some time later today, but at the moment I pretty much agree
with the crossing the state portion. I haven't yet seen why they have her
recurving back. In any case, she'll be much weaker by then.

Intensity: The NHC also has her remaining a TS across the entire state.
This I'm not so sure about. I know she's going to pass close to Lake
Okechobee, a large water body, but I'm not sure that will be enough to
sustain this intensity. Every hurricane that has crossed this state - even
those that cross quickly and take a shorter path - lose intensity and are
usually one or two categories less by the time the exit the other side.

Storm Surge: The forecast calls for water levels to be 3-5 feet above
normal in SW Florida in locations where the winds are blowing in-land. At
the moment Naples is showing about 1 foot above normal, and may rise a bit
more. They also say 2-4 feet above normal in the Keys - the observations
there show a max of about 1 foot and the water levels are now dropping.
There aren't any forecsts on water levels for the east coast yet, but
where there are obs on the east coast, water levels are not yet over 1
foot above normal. Those are the ones I expect to rise if at all.

For those of you who live in the Tampa Bay area and are not here and have
contacted me to ask what is going on... at the moment we have cloud cover.
I expect rain, possibly heavy rain, in a few hours as she moves NNE and
therefore a bit closer, but that's about it. I think we've had worse daily
thunderstorms. I'll add more later today (I don't expect to lose power at
all, but if I do... oh well, I've got ice cream that *must* be eaten :) ).
Pinellas lifted its mandatory evacuation orders for mobile home and zone A
residents, but schools are still closed.

Finally, yes I know there's another blob out there in the Atlantic. It's
trying to get strong but hasn't quite suceeded. If it does, the track
won't be too far removed from the one Fay took - at least as far as the
Caribbean is concerned. I won't mention this blob again unless he
develops. The next name will be Gustav. Phew... another fairly easy one to
spell.

Stay safe my peeps! :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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