Tropical Storm Laura: September 30 Update A

I disagree. There, got that out of the way right at the beginning. :)

Once upon a time, they used to say that a Tropical Storm had to have the
most convection near it's center versus at some distance from the center
... I wonder when that idea dropped off the radar? (puns always intended).
Maybe that was in the old days when we didn't have the same technology we
have today. You know, ye olde days... back when the Ipod was first
invented.

Actually, I think having some convection in the first place was a good
indication of stormy weather. But that's just me. Apparently clouds and
light drizzle with blustery winds are enough for some.

Laura got moved from being a Subtropical to a Tropical Storm today,
despite moving northwards over increasingly cooler waters of 24-25 deg C,
and she is about to jump to being Extratropical soon apparently. She has
very little convection and is basically a swirling mass of air centered at
about 42.3N, 48.5W and heading N at 14 mph. Maximum winds are near 60mph
(central pressure 996mb), making her a medium-sized windy storm.

She's staying out in the Atlantic and unless something beyond belief
happens in the next 24 hours (like we lose $1.2 quadrillion or something)
this will be my last entry on "Subtropical Storm Laura".

Toodles,
J.

P.S. In the US a Quadrillion is a thousand trillion (not to be confused
with a quadrillion in the UK/rest of the world). You never know when that
will come in handy.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical
storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are
making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management
and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Subtropical Storm Laura: September 29 Update A

Before Laura, here's a report from our  Halifax re "Hurricane" Kyle from yesterday:
"Blustery winds and some rain in Halifax. Much more west of here. We'll head that way today and have a look."

The blobette turned into Subtropical Storm Laura - a compromise between a TS and an Extratropical Storm. It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more named storms in the past few years.

At least once a year I get asked what the difference is between Tropical Storms, Subtropical Storms and Extratropical Storms. For those who want to know, I cut and pasted an explanation from previous years below (so at least it looks like I've been very diligent and wrote a lot for this entry ;) ).

She's centered at 37.2N, 47.3W, in the central North Atlantic and she's moving WNW at 8mph. Maximum winds are near 60mph, making her a mid-sized storm (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 993 mb. This WNW motion means she is (and will remain) over cooler waters of 25-26 deg C. She's moving around a high pressure system that is over the eastern Atlantic, so I agree with the official forecast track - she'll move WNW for a while, then N, then NNE etc. A pattern we see with all storms. There is pretty good circulation and a bit of convection, but most of it is just clouds, not to much in the way of thunderstorms (or even rain). The clouds are wrapping around the center, but are not near it - she looks like a big comma at the moment.

A quick overview of storm systems (from http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2007/06/official-start-of-hurricane-season-june.html):
An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle suprise!)  and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also called low pressure systems.They are usually associated with fronts which are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front) or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air. As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although 'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both extratropical and tropical systems.  For example, imagine an extratropical storm moving over warmer water.  Now the storm begins to get some energy from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a subtropical depression. Subtropical Storm Laura was formed from an extratropical low pressure system/front.

I'll try and send out another update tomorrow... but I can't guarantee it. :)
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/ ------------------------------- DISCLAIMER: These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know. -------------------------------------------               

 

Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 28 Update B

TS Kyle:

Finally, I agree with the NHC. Phew!

In the 11pm advisory, they downgraded Kyle to a Tropical Storm, despite
him having had very little convection for most of the day. In fact, he's
not actually a tropical storm, but an extratropical storm (and should have
been classified as such a while ago). The NHC also say he is not a
tropical cyclone anymore so the 11pm was their last advisory on this
system.

Winds are still in the tropical storm range, estimated to be near 70mph,
and central pressure is 986mb. He is located near 44.8N, 65.9W and is
heading generally N at 26 mph, and will get to New Brunswick in about 2-3
hours.

This is most likely my last update on this system. One in which I very
much disagreed with the official word (in case you hadn't cottoned on by
now) but that's o.k. (other than we have one extra "hurricane" this season
when we shouldn't have - but who pays attention to numbers regarding
seasonal activity anyway, huh?).

The Blobette:
And in keeping with the effort to make sure we have the right number of
storms and hurricanes that were predicted at the start of the season,
Mother Nature is teasing us with another blobette out there (and I suspect
I may be disagreeing with the NHC again soon).

So here we go... For a start, this one is not even a tropical system! as
they so nicely point out in the NHC write-up:
"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
CENTER OF A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN"

This blobette is somewhere around 37N, 46W and is over water temperatures
(25-27 deg C). It has got some rotation, but not much convection right
now. This one is moving westward, and I will concede that it could
develop if it moves southward over warmer waters - in fact, any real
convection in this system is on the southern side where the water is a
little warmer. The current projected path is W or WNW - both of which keep
it over this temperature water or cooler. So, if this does develop, then
it is developing primarily because of atmospheric dynamics, not because of
the underlying ocean effects. It could be an extratropical storm - which
can also have rotation like we see with this system. And, believe it or
not, convection also develops in the extratropics where water temperatures
are cooler. I know. I grew up in the UK. Rain is our normal summertime
weather. And wintertime weather (although for some variety we get snow
then as well) ;).

That's all for today. More fun and games from the extratropics tomorrow...
at this rate I'm going to have to change the name of my blog!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Kyle: September 28 Update A

I heard from an intrepid reporter currently in the Halifax, Canada area
and heading towards New Brunswick. Just like Kyle. Oops.

The theme for this storm is: half-baked. He has no convection in the
southern half of the system, it's all to the north and it has decreased in
the last few hours (although there is still some thundery activity there).
I can't quite determine where the center of circulation is because he's
not very well formed at all, due to *very* strong wind shear. The NHC have
it at 40.4N, 67.7W, heading NNE at 24 mph.

They say his winds are near 80mph (estimated central pressure 991mb) with
hurricane force winds extending out 70 miles from his center. I disagree.
At the 5am discussion, this is what the NHC said:

"THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD
COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS
TO ESTIMATE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT."

1 knot = 1.15mph. So doing that *very* complicated calcuation, I get winds
of just over 74 mph. Although the planes report the finest information in
a storm, they actually still have to estimate what the wind speed is at
the surface because they can't get data from that far down. And as the
resolution of instruments is not very high, I would still maintain this is
a TS.

Then at the 11am discussion, this is what the NHC said:
"EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE
STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT
DATA...IN PARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z."

12Z was at 8am. Dvorak estimates are based on satellite information to
estimate the wind speed. So a handful of measurements *estimated* from the
planes only *could* have been as high as 75 knots. Looking at buoy
measurements in the area, at the moment those that are closest to the
center are clocking wind speeds of 41 knots (47mph at 41N, 66.5W), 20
knots (23 mph at 40.5N, 69.5W), 18knots (20.7 mph at 42.3N, 66W)

Let's talk about ocean temperatures shall we? He's now over water
temperatures of 23-25 deg C, and about to head into even colder waters of
20-23 deg C. Not a very good source of energy for any storm.

Wind shear - I already mentioned this was strong.

I can't believe they have him classified as a hurricane. I expect them to
downgrade at the next advisory. I'll send out another update later.

Stay safe in Canada...enjoy your vacation ... what's the weather like? ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Kyle: September 27 Update A

I think some of you can guess what I'm about to say in this update...

<minor rant alert>

The NHC upgraded Kyle to a hurricane at the 5pm advisory and I Totally
Disagree with this!

Based on data from a plane, they say he has winds of near 75 mph (cat 1
range: 74-90 mph) and a central pressure in the 995-999mb range! The
center of circulation is still very much to one side (southwest) of most
of convective activity because there is some very very strong wind shear
from the southwest (vertical wind shear ranging between 23-40 mph!). He is
also over colder water - 25-26 deg C. Really, I'm not at all convinced
about this hurricane designation. And I am not alone... even the NHC (yes,
the same NHC) is not totally convinced:

"THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE
INCREASE IN THE FORWARD MOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION."

(this is after a discussion on possibly dodgy wind data/estimates).

I know they are erring on the side of caution because that is their job,
but as you may have heard me say before, I object to labeling storms
incorrectly because they become season statistics - "we had x number of
hurricanes this season blah blah blah" (blah blah blah = technical jargon
in case you were wondering). Harumph.

<end of minor rant> (for now).

His center is somewhere near 35N, 69W and he has really picked up forward
speed (as the NHC kindly mentioned) and is moving approximately northward
at a very rapid 23 mph. It is not very easy to see where his center is
because he is not a very well formed system (yet another indication of his
TS status).

The forecast track calls for him to make landfall as a Tropical Storm in
the northern Maine/Canada region early on Monday morning. This is
more-or-less o.k. - I think there's a chance he will pass a little closer
to the US New England coastline, making landfall in Maine.

We'll see what he (and the NHC) decide to do tomorrow.

Until tomorrow,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Kyle: September 26 Update A

He's been zooming along a N-NNW trajectory at about 13mph for most of
the day and is currently located near 27.6N, 68.7W. Maximum winds are
near 60 mph, central pressure 1003mb (from a plane), making him a
mid-sized TS (range: 39-73mph). There is wind shear from the west, so
all the convective activity remains on the eastern side - he's a very
lopsided looking storm really.

Bermuda has Tropical Storm warnings in place, but it looks like he will
pass west of the island tomorrow and the winds will be at the weaker end
of that spectrum, so it should really only be a blustery sort of day
tomorrow (said Winnie the Pooh :) ) with possibly some raindrops
(because they are on the eastern side of the storm). Not sure it'll be a
good day for golfing.

The forecast calls for him to become a hurricane by Sunday morning. I'm
not sure this will happen unless wind shear decreases and there is less
dry air in the system. It doesn't look like the shear will decrease too
much. He'll also be over cooler water by then.

If you live in the Boston/Cape Cod area, it looks like it'll be a bit
windy up there early next week.

That's it for today. Have a lovely Friday evening.
(hurray hurray :) )
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Kyle and the Blobette: September 25 (really this time) Update A

Umm yes... well noted for those who mentioned I had the date wrong in
the last update. I knew that. I was just er... testing you. Yeah, that's
right. Just testing. Anyhoo... here's the real Sept. 25 update A. :)

Tropical Storm Kyle:
Finally... after days and days of lurking mischievously in the northern
Caribbean, the Blob is now officially a Tropical Storm Kyle after plane
went into the system and found that elusive closed circulation. His
center is around 23.5N, 68.3W and he is moving generally northward
(maybe a bit NEward) at 8mph. He's a very weak system with maximum
sustained winds near 45 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and a central pressure
of 1001mb. Sea surface temperatures are a lovely 27 - 28 deg C, so
enough to sustain him. The forecast track takes him northward, passing
between Bermuda and the US. I think it might pass a little closer to
Bermuda than the track shows at the moment - but that's a day or so away
yet.

Having said all that, he doesn't look like much at all on the satellite
images. Yes, there is closed circulation, but that's been there for days
(in my opinion he should have been named a Tropical Depression a while
ago), and the center is easily visible because there is a lot of dry air
- so you can see it and the surround wisps of clouds. All the convective
activity (which is quite strong) is confined to the northeast quadrant
of the storm. If the center and the convective activity eventually get
their act together then he'd have a chance to develop, but until that
happens, I don't see him getting much stronger. In fact, there's less
going on here than there is in the Blobette...and speaking of....

The Blobette:
Let's get the important stuff out of the way first. Thanks to all the
responses to my update yesterday.
First, for those in the thick of things, here's part of a note I got
from our reporter in Wilmington (NC) this morning ... (isn't it nice to
have more strategically placed reporters than the BBC World Service ;) )

"Windy all night long with some rain, though not the "up to 1 inch" that
I heard we might get. Through this evening the Weather Channel has
increased the possible rain to "up to 2 inches". We'll see. It was
actually so windy last night that the cover on our quail pin blew off.
Poor birdies. They were hunkered down in a corner this morning. <Name
removed to protect the innocent> replaced the cover - he wore a rain
jacket on the off chance that a rain drop would hit him. <Comment
removed to protect the innocent ;) >"

And did you know that "it takes about 4 quail eggs to equal 1 chicken
egg" ? ... the things you learn with these updates! (thanks J.D. :) )

And from A. F. we have a Haiku (who knew there were so many poets out
there?):
Blobette and Her Blob
One Tragic--Other a Slob
How People Will Sob

So, er.. back to business... about the Blobette (remember, the real
reason we are here?): It's centered about 100 miles SE of the SC/NC
border, and is moving WNW at 10 mph. It is much better looking than
Kyle, and as with him, you can clearly see the circulation in the low,
wispy clouds but there's not as much convection - maybe just a bit of
rain (keep that rain jacket handy). Lots of dry air. Very unlikely to
develop much.

Guess you'll be getting another update tomorrow (unless something
amazing happens this evening).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blobette and the Blob: September 25 Update A

Now that we are approaching the last couple of months of the 'Atlantic
hurricane season' we can expect storms to sprout up in the western
Atlantic/ Caribbean/ Gulf. And indeed, there have been some interesting
sparks. I've been watching and waiting all day to see what would happen
... not much development tropically, although the economy is still
experiencing some stormy weather, and we do have another 6 or so weeks
before the peak of the political season. :)

The Blobette:
There's an area of circulation that grew a wee bit today, off the east
coast of the US. If you are anywhere from Florida to N. Carolina and it's
been a bit blustery, this Blobette is connected. Although the circulation
is centered SE of Wilmington (North Carolina - for those who were
wondering) at around 32.5N, 74.7W , it is part of a broader region of
vorticity (circulation) that spans most of the SE US coast. There was some
convection in the system this morning but during the day it has been
entraining dry air, so really all we have is some windy weather. There is
a chance this could change as the system is centered close to the Gulf
Stream, but that dry air is quite prevalent at the moment. It looks like
the center is moving WNW (ish) and into cooler water. They are sending in
planes quite frequently (or so it seems) to make sure it doesn't do
something sneaky like develop when no-one is watching (because we know
that never happens). With such vigilance, I think I'll just sit back, have
a cup of tea and keep an eye on it for now (just the one eye mind you). I
hope you surfers are having a jolly good time out there :)

The Blob:
Whilst I'm here I might as well give you an update on the Blob that was
dumping rain on the VIs/PR/Hispaniola region in the northern Caribbean a
couple of days ago. This has weakened - there is still some low-level
vorticity (circulation) in the atmosphere and some winds, but convection
has decreased considerably... and it looks like a er well... a Blob
actually :). It is now north of the islands and appears to be drifting
into the Atlantic.

"For never was a story of more slobs
Than this of the Blobette and her Blob"

Hmm... not *quite* Shakespeare. I'll just go and work on that line a bit
more shall I?

If there's any development I'll send out an update.
Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

The Blob: September 22 Update A

Just under 10 days with nary a blob or blobette in sight! I almost
forgot we were still in hurricane season. :)

So, as you may have heard, there's a blob out there. It's been dumping a
lot of rain on the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico - lots of flash
floods. This is part of a note I got from our soggy reporter in St.
Thomas yesterday evening: "As of 10pm there is no wind but plenty of
slow rain all last two days with heavy rain hitting here around 8pm this
night and still coming...........we will be flooded out all over the
island no doubt.....St. Thomas will no doubt suffer flash flooding as
will Puerto Rico which causes massive erosion into the
sea...........system is really slow moving right now........send mask
and snorkel!!"

Mask and snorkel is in the post.

I agreed with the NHC analysis of no circulation with this system until
yesterday. Today it looks like there is some very low atmosphere
circulation northwest of the main rainfall region. The heaviest
convective activity is just south of PR/VIs, although they are still
getting quite a few buckets of rainfall. There is some wind shear from
the northwest, which is why the convection is not in the same location
as the vorticity, which is the technical term for circulation.

From the pressure fields it is too soon to be able to tell where this
will go, however the computer models at the moment show that it will
head north and stay in the Atlantic, away from the eastern US.

It is not yet officially a Tropical Depression. However, with the
developing circulation and convection, and winds (from satellite)
already over 30 knots (1 knot = 1.15 mph) or 34.5mph, I think it might
actually already be a Tropical Depression. Water temperatures in that
area are over 29 deg C, so certainly warm enough to maintain heavy
convection.

The next named storm by the way is Kyle. I'll send out an update when it
becomes a TD (or TS).

Ciao for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storm Ike: September 13 Update B

He's been deteriorating all day, and is now a weak Tropical Storm with
winds close to 40 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), central pressure 980 mb. He
is still barely in Texas with his center at 33.3N, 94.8W, but he is
moving, as forecast, NNE at 21 mph and will be in Arkansas as a Tropical
Depression in a few hours. There is some rain with this system still, and
the possibility of tornadoes in that area.

I have heard of a lot of damage, but so far not many deaths from this
storm, which, is much better than expected. There is a 15-16 ft seawall
around parts of Galveston which helped, but my Galveston expert (thanks
C.M.) tells me it is only on the eastern side of the island. The western
side is, essentially, a sand-bar. I heard a rumour earlier that that is
the end at which most of the Search and Rescue efforts are on-going. I
also read that about 17 buildings in Galveston have been completely
destroyed, and I'm sure you've all seen photos of the damage across the
entire region, including Houston.

Big Bad Ike (about 900 miles in diameter at one point) caused a lot of
damage (I'm refraining from any jokes here here because I'm *trying* to be
tasteful... for a change), not only in the US but to our neighbours in the
Caribbean - Cuba and Haiti especially. I'm glad he's done although we'll
be hearing about him for days to come. If you have family and friends
caught up in this, I hope they are all safe and well. I do expect the
powers that be to pull Ike from the rota of names as well.

This is my last update on Ike (I can hear you cheering you know). The last
break in updates was after Fay. I can barely remember that one whole
entire day of nothing - and yet it was only August 24!

On slightly a different note, I got told off last year by some of you for
not telling you when I'll be on the telly. So, in case I get found out
again (apparently some of you watch tv?!?), I'm on this Monday - Fox 13,
12.30-1pm, Cathy Fountain show, talking about Ike (this is why I know you
will be hearing about him for days to come). I highly recommend you unplug
your tv sets during that time to prevent them from spontaneously
combusting.

Next update will be if something else develops, or if there's something of
interest that you might be... well... interested in I suppose :).

Toodle pip for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 13 Update A

Ike made landfall in Galveston at around 2-2.30am as a strong cat 2 storm
with winds nearing 110mph. He is now inland at 30.5N, 95.3W, but is still
a fairly good looking cat 1 hurricane with maximum winds near 90mph,
central pressure 962 mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), and he has a lot of
convective activity. Hurricane force winds extend out 125 miles from the
center.

Currently he is moving N at 18mph. The forecast track calls for him to
move in a NNE direction later today.

Water levels peaked at over 12 ft in Galveston, of which the storm surge
was 10 ft above normal. Higher up the TX coast, Sabine Pass recorded a
surge of 12 ft, taking the water level there to 14 ft. These levels are
receding now. Fortunately the feared 20 -25 ft surge does not appear to
have happened, but it is still bad enough to cause serious damage.

The last I saw, an estimated 23,000 people remained in Galveston. In
addition to the Island being flooded, it looks like there are a number of
fires in houses and other places. I'm sure we will be glued to the news
coming out of there during the weekend.

I'll send out another update later as he continues to weaken. He has a lot
of rain with him, so it will be mostly a water-event for those inland.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 12 Update C

Ike will make landfall soon, and yet another disaster is looming from this
storm! The storm surge is now 10ft above predicted levels and rising -
from Galveston all the way into the western LA coast. Low tide is over,
and so water levels will also begin to increase from the normal tides as
well. Eugh.

Locations in TX south of Galveston, such as Corpus Christi, are
experiencing about 4 feet of storm surge and strong convective activity -
in fact that entire section of coastline, and possibly as far inland as
Austin (including Houston of course) looks like it is experiencing hefty
rains and thunderstorms.

He has winds of near 110 mph (952 mb central pressure), making him a
strong cat 2 storm (96-110 mph wind range), and really at this point there
is very little difference between him and a very weak cat 3. But, as you
know, the damage will be primarily from the water, not the wind.

Moving NW at 12 mph, at 11pm (EDT) he was about 45 miles SSE of Galveston
with his center officially located at that time at 28.7N, 94.5W. On this
trajectory, this puts the city directly in the eye, or in the worst side
of the storm with winds pushing the water onto the island. However, in the
hour or so since then, it looks like the leading edge of his eye (which is
quite broad) will make landfall in Galveston within the next 30 mins - 1
hour.

On top of the surge, there are the damaging and strong waves to consider.
I really hope people evacuated as they were told. I know there's a sea
wall there, but I've already seen pictures of the water coming over the
top.

I'll send another update out in the morning.
Be safe out there!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 12 Update B

After a day of very strong convection and very cold clouds in the Gulf,
Ike has been interacting with the LA/TX coast for the past few hours and
cloud tops have begun to warm up again, which means convection has
decreased and signals a (very slowly) weakening storm. It may not seem
like much consolation to those along that coastline, because there is
still quite a lot of heavy rain, thunderstorms, and possible tornadoes,
and winds are at Tropical Storm levels (39-73 mph), around 45 mph at the
moment, and will obviously get stronger as the storm gets closer.

Wind speed max. is still 105 mph (central pressure 955mb), keeping him
at the cat 2 level (range: 96-110 mph), and he is moving generally NW
towards the Galveston area at 12 mph - he's about 135 miles SE of the
city. The 'eye' is very broad, so the official center is at 27.7N, 93.5W.

Storm surge at the moment is between 6-8 feet in the Galveston area, and
peaked at just over 9 ft in parts of LA. The only bit of good news I
suppose is that the high tide is over and so the predicted tides are now
decreasing, so total water levels will not increase as rapidly for the
next few hours. However, 8-10 feet of water is pretty darn tootin' bad!

Really not much more to say for now... just watching and waiting with
bated breath like everyone else. I might send out another update later
this evening with conditions in that area.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 12 Update A

If you are in Galveston, evacuate now - your Emergency Managers, the NWS
and the NHC are looking out for your safety. The NWS issued an
unprecedentedly strong statement last night, saying:
"All neighbourhoods and possibly entire coastal communities will be
inundated during the period of the peak storm tide" and "Persons not
heeding evacuation orders in single family one- or two-storey homes will
face certain death."

This was issued because apparently some residents are not evacuating.
They are expecting a very large storm surge.

A technical note about storm surge before I get to Ike. I've heard that
some news media are reporting a '6 to 7 foot storm surge' already in
Galveston. This number is not the storm surge, but it is the water
level, which is the tide (which is taken into consideration in the
normal, predicted water level) PLUS the storm surge. Unfortunately,
Galveston is, at the moment, facing a fairly high tide as well, so the
normal water level is about 2 ft above mean sea level anyway. The
normal, predicted tides will subside in about 12 hours to close to 0 ft.
Technically, the storm surge at the moment is about 4 to 5 feet above
normal. End of technical note.

Ike is currently centered somewhere around 26.9N, 92.2W and is moving
WNW at 13 mph. Galveston is about 230 miles NE of the storm. The
forecast is for him to turn to the NW later today. At this speed, he
will get to the coast in about 17-18 hours, so in the early hours of
tomorrow morning. The bad side of the storm (for Galveston) is the north
side because winds will continue to push water up against the coast. The
best scenario at this point is that he takes a slightly more northward
turn and pass north of Galveston. However, within 24 hours of landfall
the NHC and computer models are usually pretty good, and they are all
heading to or just south of Galveston.

He has intensified slightly, and now has winds of 105 mph, even though
his central pressure is a bit higher at 956 mb. This makes him a cat 2
still (range: 96 - 110 mph), but is very close to a cat 3.
Interestingly, the strongest winds are not near the eye at all - they
are approx. 60 miles from the center. Convection has improved quite a
bit in the central parts of the storm, but is still ragged around the
edges and he is still experiencing some wind shear from the north.

A short historical note: Galveston is notorious for having had the
deadliest natural disaster in US history. On Sept. 8, 1900 a cat 4 storm
(that's the estimate anyway) made landfall in Galveston. About 8,000
people perished. This disaster was the impetus for improving Galveston's
defenses against the sea (by building a sea wall for example), and is
the basis for Erik Larson's book: "Isaac's Storm" - should you wish to
read more about that disaster. End of historical note.

More later,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike and the Blobette: September 11 Update C

Ike:
Just a quick note: The latest pressure fields show landfall most likely in
the north TX - west LA area.

As far as I can tell, the highest surge so far has been at Shell Beach
(LA), with 7ft above normal. This is partly because of the topography of
the area, which allows water to pile up there. It looks like that has just
about reached a maximum though. Galveston is at just over 2ft above
normal. Corpus Christi is at just under 2ft above normal.

Ike has patches of dry air within the main convection bands, so he is not
a very 'solid' looking storm (for want of a better word). I suspect he is
still a cat 2. It looks like the NHC has backed off a bit on their cat 3
forecast - it is forecast to happen now closer to landfall. I don't think
it will happen if he continues as he is because he will be interacting
with land long before then, and it looks like wind shear may even be
picking up soon.

I may be hallucinating, but it also looks like he is losing weight and
getting a bit slimmer. As he moves away from the Loop Current area the
moisture and heat energy being supplied by that ocean source is
diminishing. His current center of circulation is somewhere around 26.2N,
90.2W (there is no clear eye).

Blobette:
On a slightly different quick note...remember the
blobette-formally-known-as-Josephine? Someone asked me today what happened
to her... well, her remnants are lurking just north of the Caribbean/east
of the Turks/Caicos/Bahamas. Although there is not much circulation in
this system, there is some rain activity and winds are Tropical Storm
force. It is not officially a TS until there is some closed circulation
though - it is just some stormy/squally weather. The NHC has it marked as
less than 20% chance of developing. *If* it develops, I would just
continue with 'Josephine', but I don't know what the formal Ms. Hurricane
Manners guidebook says in this situation. :)

Time for a nice nap now... Stay Safe out west!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 11 Update B

From the 5pm (EDT) advisory, Ike's center is somewhere around 26 N,
89.4 W, although there is no clearly visible eye. He has an estimated
central pressure of 950 mb (from aircraft data) and officially he is
heading WNW at 10mph. They said he made a NW 'jog' earlier today, but it
looks like he's still heading more NW than WNW to me, and they have
adjusted the track to reflect a slight northward shift in the 5pm
advisory (taking him to Galveston now) - so the official WNW heading
does not quite match up.

He is a bit of a gargantuan storm in area, but not in intensity - it
looks like he is covering almost 2/3 of the Gulf! But he does not appear
to be greater than a cat 2 with winds still near 100 mph. The cold cloud
tops have decreased (for now) and his convection is not evenly
distributed in all quadrants. It looks like wind shear from the
northwest is the main culprit for his ragged, asymmetric appearance in
the Infra-red images (the satellite images that show convective
activity), plus there is some dry air that is helping to keep him from
developing on the west side. Most of the cloudiness is to his east and
south - this part is still over the Loop Current (see
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/09/hurricane-ike-september-9-update.html
for Loop Current explanation) - where the warm water is very deep as well.

I talked about cold cloud tops a while ago and I'm *sure* everyone who
was reading back then remembers word-for-word what I wrote ;), but for
the new readers this is why cloud top temperature is important (adapted
from Bertha, July 9 Update C from web blog): Warm cloud tops means that
the tops of her clouds are not as high up in the troposphere (the lowest
section of our atmosphere) as they could be.The troposphere is
characterized by cooler air temperatures the higher up you go (think of
how it gets colder the higher up a mountain you are). So the higher the
clouds, the colder their tops, and that's an indication of some very
very strong (or deep) convective activity (large thunderstorms etc). If
you look at a color infrared image of a hurricane (there are some in the
"satellite" link on left side of the NHS webpage), the coldest clouds
tops are indicated by red.

I also wrote a little 'Satellite Imagery Primer' earlier this season.
For part one read this entry:
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-4-update-b.html.
If that hasn't bored you ;) then for part deux, read this entry:
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2008/08/ts-edouard-august-5-update.html.

Back to Ike. It is still difficult to asses his exact landfall location
I'm afraid. I will send out another update later today if there is any
better indication, but at the moment it could still be anywhere along
the Texas coast (north of say South Bird Island) to Louisiana near the
Texas border - so keep an eye on the entire cone, not just the center
track. Storm surge (see previous entry for monitoring this yourselves)
along the eastern and northeastern side of the Gulf has diminished, but
it is about 6 ft above normal in Shell Beach, LA, and still rising.
Meanwhile...in Texas, we have storm surge at the moment of about 2 ft
above normal water levels in the Galveston and NE Texas area, and just
over 1 ft above normal in the Corpus Christi area.

If you are reading this and are in Corpus Christi, Houston, and esp.
Galveston - stop reading and go and get ready and pay attention to your
Emergency Managers! If you have any specific questions, drop me a line.

If there's anything new to report, I'll send out another update later.
Otherwise tomorrow my friends.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 11 Update A

I know, I know, I didn't send out an update yesterday. My bad. I was
doing far more fun and interesting things like sitting in different
planes, on different airport tarmacs for hours on end (not at the same
time of course :) ). When are they going to get around to developing
teleportation? Just think of all the advantages - no time lost in
travel, save on fuel costs, save the environment, unlimited baggage
transfer capabilities, airlines could save even more money by not having
to provide food or beverages, security should be easier, the list goes
on... but with today's technology, 22 hours later...and I'm back
(although I'm not sure which time zone I'm back into).

I did have a quick look at Ike last night, but he behaved as I expected
yesterday so the update could wait: He did intensify as he crossed the
Loop Current, and remains a Cat 2 with winds of 100mph (cat 2 range:
94-110mph). He has not intensified further since he left that area and
has remained a cat 2 with winds near 100mph for well over 12 hours.
Interestingly, his central pressure is only 945 mb, which is quite low
for a cat 2 storm. The NHC had this to say at the 5am discussion:
"IKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS.
DROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS
STILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED CENTRAL
PRESSURE. THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO A
BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE. "

In the 11am discussion they say that the wind structure is still
unusual, and that although winds higher in the atmosphere and in some
areas of the storm are strong, they have not recently seen winds as high
as 100mph at the surface. This continues to highlight the complicated
nature of these storms, and that we cannot fully understand them yet,
let alone forecast them with great accuracy.

The NHC maintain that he will be a cat 3 at landfall on Saturday morning
in Texas, but I am still not 100% he will get to a cat 3 stage. There
are at least three factors that will stop him from intensifying too much:
1. As I said a couple of days ago, although surface temperatures are
warm (about 29 deg C), the warm waters are shallower with depth.
2. There is a bit of wind shear from the North/North-west direction.
Although it is not much, it appears to be affecting him at his current
strength.
3. As he gets closer, he will begin to interact more with land. In fact,
he is a very broad storm - hurricane force winds extend out 115 miles
from the center (which is at 25.5N, 88.4W), and everyone from Cuba to LA
are experiencing effects - primarily in the storm surge at the moment.

As a reminder (or maybe its something new), if you want to look at how
high water levels are getting near you, go to the Tides Online page:
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/geographic.html. Click on 'State Maps'
on the left panel, and then click on the state you are interested in and
then on the location of interest. Texas is marked with 'TX', in case you
were wondering ;). The blue line is the predicted normal water level,
the red are the actual observations, and the green line on the plots
gives you the difference between the expected value and the observations
- i.e. the 'above normal' water level. Because a storm is a low pressure
system, in the northern hemisphere the winds move around it in a
counter-clockwise direction. So water levels on the north/eastern side
of the storm will be above normal because the winds are pushing water
towards the shore, but water levels on the western side will be below
normal.

There are parts of FL, AL, MS, and LA that have had, or are experiencing
over 2 ft of storm surge already. For example, Dauphin Island, AL has
over 2ft above normal water levels at the moment. In TX (Texas)
Galveston Pier currently has about 1 foot above normal, and rising. I
mention Galveston (casually) because that makes a good segue into where
Ike is going (subtle, huh? :))... Texas is still the likely candidate
for landfall, but it is unclear which part of Texas. The forecast center
of cone track takes Ike just south of Galveston, but the pressure maps
show anywhere from the Texas Mexico border to LA as a possibility at the
moment. So, do not focus on the center of that cone! He is moving WNW at
10mph.

More later...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 9 Update A

Dearie me, you are a suspicious bunch aren't you? ;) I know I may have
used the words "Gotta run" more than once re Ike (slip of the keyboard),
and it may look a *little* dodgy that I left the country as he headed
towards the FL-neck of the woods, but do you think I'd miss a storm
(unless it's a cat 4 or 5, in which case I would definitely run away if I
could and tell you all as well). :)

Ike began his WNW hike and made landfall over Cuba again, alas following
very closely in Gustav's footsteps, which is awful. He has been over Cuba
for a number of hours now, and is still over land (barely). I haven't seen
anything more than Tropical Storm level winds in the satellite data in the
last few hours, and it doesn't look like the plane or ground data is
showing more than TS level winds either, but the NHC are keeping his winds
at 'near 75mph' (central pressure 970 mb) making him a cat 1 (range: 39-73
mph) because there is a fuzzy eye-like feature and he will soon head over
water and begin to intensify. I am pretty sure he is a TS at the moment
though.

His center is at 22.7N, 83.5W, and he is heading in a general Westward
direction - WNW at 12 mph. There is very little rainfall in the western
section of the storm. I see that the Keys and parts of southern Florida
are getting some of the outer bands though. Circulation is very good in
this system though.

He will shortly be entering the Gulf. The Texas coast still looks like the
place he'll head towards. The forecast calls for landfall there on Sat. am
as a cat 2 storm.

As he crosses the Gulf (waters > 29 deg C), he has to cross the Loop
Current. This is part of an ocean current system that extends from the
Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico, "Loops" around and then back out
through the Straits of Florida, where it becomes the Florida Current (we
are very good at naming things ;)), and then continues up the east coast
of the US as the Gulf Stream. The Loop Current in the Gulf fluctuates in
location over a number of months, and at the moment it is not very far
north (unlike 2005 when Katrina and Rita passed over it). The significance
of the Loop Current is that warm waters are very deep, which provide a
nice source of energy for a storm as it passes overhead.

So, for Ike, although the Loop Current is not very far north in the Gulf,
it is in his forecast path. Also, the wind shear is low and will be low
whilst he is in the southern Gulf. Both of these factors will help
intensification. I can see him becoming a cat 1, possibly a cat 2 in the
Gulf. However, in the western Gulf, although surface waters are warm, they
are not as deep. At the moment it looks like wind shear is not very strong
there either, but that could change by Thursday/Friday, but it looks
unlikely at the moment that he will intensify further once he gets into
the western Gulf (unless he pulls one of those rapid intensification
thingies (technical term ;))).

I won't be able to send an update until late tomorrow, by which time he
will really be at Hurricane strength again (in my opinion) and in the
Gulf.

And this is a very small world by the way. I bumped into G. M. from St.
Pete (US) over here (in the UK) - I'm not sure who was more suprised! At
least he could give me the latest hurricane information because I had not
had time to look at that point. :)

That's all from this side of the pond...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 8 Update B

He has continued west today over Cuba - taking him south of the
track/center of cone that was forecast yesterday, which is what I thought
might happen. He has also decreased to a cat 1 and has winds of 80mph (cat
1 range: 74-95 mph), central pressure 965mb. His location is around 21.4N,
79.7W and he is heading W at 14mph. This slightly southern track takes him
south of Cuba and over warm water again, but he may not intensify *too*
much because he continues to interact with land. It really depends how far
west he continues. The forecast now calls for him to take a WNW motion
overnight, and back over Cuba.

There is a high pressure system holding firm over the northern and eastern
Gulf. The forecast tracks have all shifted southwards as well and are now
heading towards Texas. This is not unreasonable at the moment, because he
is moving along the southern edge of that high pressure.

I don't have too much time right now (apologies), but I will try and get
to this tomorrow evening - I'll only have time for one update tomorrow.
What we are looking for between now and then is his WNW turn.

More tomorrow ... and I'll try to discuss the Gulf intensity possibilities
then, and may have a better idea (guess! ;)) of landfall in a few days
too.

(I can't type now anyway as I have my fingers crossed for Andrew Murray in
the US Open... :) )

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 8 Update A

Ike made landfall in Cuba at around 9.50pm (EDT) last night as a cat 3,
but is now (around 5.30am EDT) a cat 2 with winds of 105 mph, central
pressure 952mb. This makes him a mid-to-strong cat 2 (wind range:
96-110mph). His center of circulation is at 21.2N, 77.3W, but there is no
longer a clear eye. He will continue to weaken today as he interacts with
Cuba.

The forecast keeps him as a hurricane during his passage over Cuba and
into the Gulf tomorrow afternoon. This may happen depending on his
interactions with surrounding water, and in that case he will be a very
weak cat 1 as he enters the Gulf. I think it likely he will be a Tropical
Storm before he emerges from Cuba - there is a lot of dry air around the
system and his convection is already at a minimum in the southwest
quadrant (very little rain).

Today we are looking for him to begin moving WNW. He is currently moving W
at 15mph.

I'll discuss the Gulf scenarios later.

Gotta run.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike: September 7 Update B

Ike:

Hurray... they officially declared him a cat 3. This is lovely because he
has not yet got to Cuba and it looks like he is still weakening. As I
wrote earlier, his appearance, especially his convection, continues to be
a little ragged around the edges even though he still has a nice eye. I
agree with this cat 3 intensity assessment. The latest plane found winds
of 120 mph (central pressure 945 mb), making him a mid-sized cat 3 storm
(cat 3 range: 111-130 mph). It is unlikely that he will re-intensify as he
gets closer to Cuba, but if he follows a path along the island as
indicated in the official forecasts, then there's a good chance he will
emerge from Cuba and into the Gulf as a Tropical Storm, despite very
little wind shear.

Located at 21.1N, 74.6W, he is moving in a general westward direction
(WSW/WNW) at 14 mph. I still think he will go a little south of the center
of the cone track - maybe once he is over Cuba. We'll find out in the next
day or so, won't we?

The 4-5 day forecast track is still uncertain, as is the intensity.

All else is quiet(ish) on the eastern front...

Someone asked me where "Toodle pip" (farewell) comes from. Being the font
of knowledge regarding British things, I did what most people do these
days and carefully entered it into Google ;). Apparently it's one of those
things that just materialised into the British lingo. There are plenty of
theories out there, but most of it is speculation. I thought it came from
"Toodle-Ooo", which may have come from the French "A tout a l'heure", but
no one is sure. Oh well, c'est la vie... I've been using it for yonks
<grin>.

So... Toodle Pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Hurricane Ike and the Blobette: September 7 Update A

Looks like we are back to potential movie titles in the subject header -
or possibly a band name? :)

Ike:

He is an almost-good-looking storm… he has a lovely eye but looks a little
ragged around the edges. Maybe he drank too much last night?

Although convection increased overnight, it has decreased a bit for now
(again). Alas, Haiti has been getting some more bucket-fulls of rain. From
plane passes, official maximum winds continue at 135 mph (central pressure
948 mb), so he is still a weak cat 4 (cat 4 range: 131-155mph). Surface
water temperatures are over 28 deg C, with waters warmer than 26 deg C in
the upper 50-60m. The significance of the depth of warm waters is that as
a storm passes over, it churns up water from under the surface. If that
water is warm, then the storm can continue to have a fuel source. If those
waters are cold, then it can begin to starve itself – depending on
atmospheric conditions as well of course. Water temperatures of 26 deg C
over the upper 50-60 m are not trivial, but they are not as deep as other
parts of the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico.

Officially, they say he is heading just south of west (I'd call that
WSW-ish) at 15 mph. He is crossing the Turks & Caicos and is currently at
21.1N, 72.2W, with Cuba as his next port of call. The forecast track is
along the axis of Cuba – perhaps a bit to the north. The forecast calls
for a more westward motion, but at the moment, to me it looks like he will
continue WSW or even SW for today. Waters around Cuba in all directions
are over 28 deg C, and over 30 in some places. Regardless of which side of
Cuba he skirts, they will have problems… so ideally, the best track is
right along the center of the island – that will result in the fastest
reduction in intensity.

The Blobette-Formerly-Known-as-Josephine:
As they say in Monty Python: "I'm not dead yet" ;) She continues to have
some circulation, and this morning convection started to blossom again.
She is still undergoing strong wind shear, but it looks like that will
begin to die down in a day or two. Water temperatures are over 27 deg C.
So, although she is still a tropical depression, it's best to keep an eye
on her as well. Currently, she's somewhere around 18N, 40W.

I'll check in again later today.
Ciao,
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Hanna and Hurricane Ike: September 6 Update B

Hanna:
She is now a weak TS (central pressure 994 mb) with max. winds of 50 mph
(TS range: 39-73 mph) and is moving NE at 28 mph. Currently centered
somewhere around 39N, 75W, she is really just a bit breezy and cloudy
(they are two of the seven dwarfs aren't they? ;)) – there's not much rain
showing on the satellite images. I got this message from a fearless
reporter in Maryland:

"Ho-hum, Hanna in College Park, MD at 15h10 ... rainy and okay windy, no big
deal ... :>"

Hanna will continue to weaken and move NE along the forecast track.

This will be my last entry on TS Hanna. We have bigger things to discuss…

Ike:
A plane flew into the system this afternoon and found winds of 135 mph
(central pressure 949 mb), making him a weak, but dangerous, cat 4 (wind
range: 131-155mph). The eye is not very clear though, and it does look
like the cloud tops are a little warmer than they were when the 5pm
advisory came out, so he might actually be a very strong cat 3. He is
still experiencing some wind shear from the north/north west, and it looks
like he is interacting a little with Hispaniola. But really, what's a few
mph when you have winds of that magnitude? As the information is from a
plane, I'll go with that accurate in situ data.

He is moving towards the Turks & Caicos/Southern Bahamas in a WSW
direction at 15mph. Haiti has not had much rain so far, just clouds.
However, as he gets closer and moves past I expect they will get some.

The forecast track continues to take him WSW and then W towards Cuba. If
he stays on that track, he will interact quite considerably with Cuba,
which should reduce his intensity. He is still too far out and my pressure
field information is still not at a fine enough resolution to make a call
on the track, so I will go with the official one – seems reasonable to me.

Now, the 4-5 day forecast. I want to emphasize the message the NHC has
been sending out consistently for the past few advisories: there is
ENORMOUS uncertainty in the 4-5 day forecast.

So, it would be prudent for everyone in ALL the gulf states to be prepared
(or at least make plans to be prepared). Currently, the weakness in the
pressure field is in the northern Gulf (LA to NW FL), but as you know,
these pressure fields change on a daily basis. It is about 2 days too soon
to tell. It is also too soon to be able to make an assessment on the
intensity as he gets into the Gulf. We'll just have to wait and see what
happens tomorrow and Monday morning.

That's all for today folks. Night night from this side of the 'pond',
where, by the way, within 36 hours of my arrival here we had TS force
winds (50 mph) and massive flooding in assorted parts of the country. It's
just like being in the tropics! Except a tad cooler. And not as humid. And
with fewer snakes and alligators... :)

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike, TD Josephine: September 6 Update A

Hanna:
She did increase in intensity in the Gulf Stream region, but not quite to
hurricane strength, and is mostly a rain event. She made landfall near the
South/North Carolina border at about 3.20am today with winds below 70mph,
making her a strong TS at landfall (TS range: 39-73mph). Her location is
at about 34.4N, 78.3W and she is moving NNE at 22mph. They expect a NE
turn today, taking her along the coast. I would agree with this track.
Max. wind speeds have decreased to 60 mph and it's unlikely it will
increase because she will continue to interact with land, even if she is
skimming the coast. For those of you north of N. Carolina, if you want
more information send me a note – but by the time she gets to MD/NJ/NY or
even MA, I expect it to be mostly rain. Hope you weren't planning a
sunbathing trip to the beach this weekend! (but surfing is probably good
:) ).

If you want to follow her progress, and where and when it is raining, you
can look at the radar. Go to http://radar.weather.gov, click on one of the
blue dots on the map that are the locations of the radar. My favorite
version is to look at the movie loops (which may take some time to load on
your machine). To see those, on the left side you will see 'Short Range
Images', 'Reflectivity', 'Composites', and next to that 'Loop'. Click on
'Loop'. Or you can click on the 'Loop' under 'Long Range Images' for a
bigger picture. Have a play. Check it out.

Ike:
First of all, whoever it is in the Bahamas who said that they have never
been hit by a tropical storm, please can you stand up, look east, then go
and hide. Thank you very much. And if you don't get any effects from Ike,
please can you move to Haiti? They could use your amazing storm-deflecting
superpowers.

Ike is a weak cat 3 storm with winds of 115 mph (wind range: 110-130mph),
central pressure 962mb, and curse him, he is moving W-SW. Grrr. Double
Grrr. Actually, I'll even go so far as to say Triple Grrr. The death
count in Haiti is now over 500 from being hit by three storms in three
weeks! Can you imagine how exhausted they must be? What a disaster. They
really don't need more rain from another one, but alas the clouds are
already moving in. He is heading towards the southern Bahamas and Turks &
Caicos, and is currently located at 22.4N, 67.1W.

Looks like the VIs won't get much rain from him – he's a little too north.
Maybe a bit breezy though.

I still do not have fine enough resolution in the pressure field but the
forecast track takes him WSW towards Cuba. In this case, his intensity
depends very much on how much he interacts with Cuba. The surrounding
water around Cuba is very warm – over 30 deg C. Hanna did cool the waters
in the southern Bahamas – down to 25-27 deg C in some areas, which is
good. Also, at the moment it looks like wind shear will increase for a
short time ahead of him, before he gets to Cuba, so although the official
forecast calls for re-intensification to a cat 4, there's a chance he will
remain a cat 3.

I have been watching the computer models, and the GFDL has been doing
really well this year with their 3-day forecast tracks. Whatever
adjustments they made since last year, good job! They have been
consistently out-performing most of the others. I will still watch and
compare of course.

Josephine:
So, after ignoring her for days, it looks like she's given up for now and
is a Tropical Depression again now. She is moving WNW at 9mph, max winds
near 30mph, located at 16.8N, 36.9W. Poor kid, she just couldn't take the
wind shear. It doesn't look like she will re-intensify, so this is my last
entry on Josephine – the easiest storm this year (except that first one
which shouldn't even have been named!). I'll continue to keep an eye on
this blobette though.

Later … but no gators otherwise we'll get back to that whole 'my football
team is better' thing from a few weeks ago… ;)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike, TS Josephine: Sept 5 Update A

I don't have much time so I'm going to have to put Josephine on hold again
for today (sorry Jo). She's out there, she's a weak TS with winds of 45
mph, heading WNW at 10mph, central pressue 1002mb, etc etc.

More importantly - Hanna!!

Looking at the latest pressure fields, it looks like the high pressure has
expanded westward and now covers North Carolina. Unless that retreats
eastward, it looks like she's heading towards S. Carolina - everyone from
Jax./FL to N. Carolina should be ready (I expect you already are!).

She weakened over night and looks quite ragged now - convection diminished
quite a bit, but she is approaching the Gulf Stream waters so if she's
going to regain anything, that's where it will happen. She'll definitely
pick up moisture there - so dust off your wellies and brollies :).

The 2am advisory had her going NW at 18 mph, located at 27.2N, 77.2 W,
with winds of 65mph. Satellite winds at the moment (about 4.20am EDT) are
showing max. 40 knot winds (~45 mph) (multiply knots by 1.15 to get mph),
which is considerably weaker.

I won't be able to check in until tomorrow - so be safe.

Next: Ike. Grrr.
He was still a good looking cat 4 storm with winds at the 11pm advisory of
135 mph (central pressure 945mb) (cat 4 range: 131-155mph). It looks like
he is experiencing some wind shear though, and it also looks like he has
decreased in intensity to something like a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) - I
suppose it could be a cycle he's going through. He's heading west at
14mph, and is located now (about 4.30am EDT) at 23.6N, 61W.

Today is the day he is forecast to make that W-SW turn towards the
southern Bahamas/Hispaniola region. It is difficult for me to make an
assessment on that because the pressure fields I have are too coarse in
resolution that far out. I'll just have to see what has happened when I
next get a chance (tomorrow).

Right... have to go. I'll be back when I can. Be good.
Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike, and TS Josephine: Sept. 4 Update A

Greetings from the UK, which is where I am now. I should just do a travel
blog as well at this rate!! I don't have much time cos my 'pooter battery
is low...

Hanna:
She finally made a move and isn't as confused any more. Well done Hanna.
Currently at about 25.1N, 74.2W, she's moving NW at 14mph. Winds are 65
mph (central pressure 984 mb), making her a strong TS (range: 39-73mph).
There is some wind shear and dry air, so intensification will be slow -
most likely as she gets closer to the Gulf Stream. Finally, I agree with
the track now... North Carolina get ready. There's a chance she will only
skirt the outer banks, but it's too soon to say. She's moving along the
western side of the high pressure system that Ike and Josephine are kinda
following in the Atlantic as well. How far over NC she gets will depend on
how far west that high expands.

Ike:
You know... I had an inkling that as soon as I turned my back he would
pull one of those rapid intensification stunts. Next time I think that's
going to happen, I'm just going to say it instead of umming and aahing
about it. So... he's a cat 4. Hmmm. That's big. Fortunately he is still
out there. The models are divided over which way he will go - some call
for a faster forward speed which will take him west and then southwest
towards the Bahamas, others take him a bit farther north in latitude. At
the moment I'm inclined to agree with the ones that keep him going WNW-NW,
not W-WSW. I'm not sure he's headed for the Bahamas - but everyone should
be ready of course because he's a hurricane over warm waters. Currently
centered at about 23.2N, 57W, moving WNW 16mph. Winds are 140 mph! central
pressure 938mb.

Josephine:
Little Jo...(my favorite character from Little Women :) )... I'll have to
talk about her tomorrow. Run out of power....

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Hanna, Ike and Josephine: September 3 Update A

You know what I forgot to add to my welcome blurb to the newbies
yesterday? The most important part! ... "Welcome... and Enjoy :) "

In an effort not to out-do each other, all three of our little friends
out there are about the same in intensity (officially anyway).

Hanna:
She is still enjoying her time just north of Hispaniola. For now it is
no longer raining over Haiti - I can only imagine the mess there though
- but rain continues on her eastern side over the Dominican Republic, PR
and the VIs (look up, you'll see it, let me know if it's enough for you
:)). She's experiencing wind shear from the west, so convection on the
east is to be expected. Winds are officially at 60mph (central pressure
996mb), making her a mid-size TS (TS range: 39-73mph), but looking at
the QuickScat satellite data it looks like her winds are about 45-50 mph
to me. We'll see what the 11am advisory says. She looks very ragged, so
I can't quite make out the center of circulation and I'll go with the
official one at 20.3N, 71.8W. She's supposedly moving eastward at 5mph,
but who the heck knows? I think she's just on a *peregrination* between
those islands. Hmmm... dilemma... should I tell you what that means or
let you look it up? I think I'll let you look it up :) (I've never used
that one in sentence before either, so I hope it's correct - I know
you'll let me know). Thanks to P. S. for sending that one in. Water
temperatures, as I thought, have decreased underneath and are now about
27-28 deg C... although the area under the convective activity is warmer
at 30 plus deg. C. Until she starts to move, the long-term forecast is
uncertain. They have landfall on Sat. now in S. Carolina, but she needs
to get moving first before I'm going to make a call on the track. The
high pressure to the north of her has lifted, but her eastward movement
suggests she is moving around a low pressure now (counter-clockwise
movement around a low pressure in the northern hemisphere).

Ike:
He's at about 20.6N, 50.6W and is moving WNW at 18mph. I expect that
direction to continue for at least another day as he is on the southern
edge of a high pressure system in the Atlantic (clockwise movement
around a high pressure in the northern hemisphere). The forecast calls
for the high to expand westward, which will take him farther west as
well - the high has indeed expanded a bit westward. I'm don't have
information on how far that expansion will continue. He slowly
intensified yesterday and winds are now 65mph, making him a
mid-to-strong TS, central pressure 996mb. Wind shear is weak, and water
temperatures are also low(ish) at 27 deg C, so I think he'll stay as a
TS for another day at least.

Josephine:
She's at 13.7N, and about 28 W, and is also moving WNW at 13 mph and has
winds of 60mph (central pressure 1000mb). She has slowly intensified
since yesterday, as we expected, but I'm not sure she will grow too much
more. There is wind shear to her north and water temps are 27 deg C.
She's also moving around that high pressure system in the Atlantic, so
continuing on her WNW path seems likely. I think she has a greater
chance of entering the Caribbean or clipping the north-eastern edge, so
you guys in the VIs - keep an eye on her (once the rain has stopped from
Hanna of course). Not too much more to say about her yet.

Well... I'm er leaving the state again. I know, I know... at least one
of you is getting very suspicious that I keep leaving when there's a
storm anywhere near Florida. It's just coincidence. Really. How was I to
know we'd have tropical storms during the peak portion of the Hurricane
Season? ;) I'm really not running away - you know I'd tell you if I was
going to do that! I will try and update as often as I can, but they
might be infrequent. So it's over the the NHC & NWS (and any other
sources you have).

Stay Safe!

Toodle pip,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine: September 2 Update B

Crikey! It's come to my attention that a there are A LOT of new people
reading these updates. So for you newbies, here are some ground rules:
1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and
tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that fits those
three words). It is just what I think.
2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.
3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime 4.
If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to
write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.
4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python.
5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please
do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you.
;) I've talked about a lot of things already, but I can cut and paste
from previous entries as well as the next person so if I say something
or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.
6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek,
which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm,
irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately
they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended -
like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece
of chocolate or a drink instead.
7. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to
get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane (my mail
server and blog site are not compatible or something, so the blog
doesn't look as pretty as other blogs might do - sorry about that! the
words are all there though.)
8. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your
in-boxes and would prefer to get it via the web go here...
http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).
9. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting
is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all
out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay
attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and
your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because
they have the most up-to-date information!!
10. I have a British sense of humoUr... did I mention that one already?

Now the actual Update.

I think we'll have to cut the caffeine for Mother Nature. She's had too
much... we now have three Tropical Storms: Hanna (sans Barbera), Ike
(sans Tina), and Josephine (sans Napoleon).

Hanna:
As I suspected, she's been 'drifting' southwards during the day - and a
bit eastward too. Until she becomes unstuck, it's still a complicated to
forecast the track and the timing of that track. Having looked at the
latest pressure maps though, it looks like the high is shifting
northwards and away ...so I expect her to start moving West and then
West-Northwest, then NW in the next 24 or so hours. She's very ragged in
appearance, so it is difficult to find her center of circulation and
I'll go with the official one at around 20.6N, 72.9W. Max winds are near
70 mph (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), making her a strong TS (central
pressure 985 mb). Although she still has some pretty decent wind shear,
there's a good chance she will become a cat 1 within 24 hours, assuming
she begins to move WNW-NW and away from land (and by land I mean
Hispaniola, not the Bahamas etc) and over water temperatures that are a
balmy 30 deg C. The NHC forecast calls for a slower strengthening than
that based on the wind shear she has ahead of her (and that would be
just fine with me).

Ike:
At 11am he was at around 18.9N, 45 W and was speeding westward at 18
mph. I'm not 100% sure I agree with that direction. It looks like he is
moving NW to me, so he is now at about 19.5N, 45.3W or so. I agree that
the winds are about 60mph (1002 mb central pressure), making him a
mid-sized TS. He is currently moving along the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic, so I think he'll continue NW for a
while longer, then get back on a westward track - maybe tomorrow. The
forecast calls for this high pressure to expand westward, so his three
day forecast track takes him to the er... southern Bahamas/Hispaniola
region as well. We might need to send them some more umbrellas. He'll
continue his slow intensification today.

Josephine:
TD 10 became TS Josephine at the 11am advisory. She is way way out East
at around 13.2N, 25.3W and is officially moving W at 15 mph (although
WNW would be more accurate). Winds are 40mph (central pressure 1005 mb)
- there was a typo in my previous update, I meant to write that TD 10
had winds of 35 mph not 15 mph, so 40mph is not a big jump! She is
following Ike's footsteps and is also moving along the southern edge of
the high pressure system in the Atlantic, so she will continue generally
westward for a few days yet and she will also gradually intensify.

I think that's it for today folks, unless there's a big change to report.
Until the morrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

Tropical Storms Hanna and Ike, TD 10: September 2 Update A

Tropical Storm-tourist season continues with Hanna, who is apparently
enjoying her visit to the Turks & Caicos and southern Bahamas because she
hasn't moved much.

Hanna:
Intensity: She weakened overnight because the wind shear is still pretty
good, she is beginning to interact with Haiti (see below), and she's been
loitering (mischieviously of course ;)) over the same area of water, so it
must be a tad cooler by now. Max. winds are 70 mph, central pressure
987mb.

Track: Centered at 21.2N, 73.1W, she is officially "moving" W at a
whopping 2mph (ooh aaah). The forecast center of cone takes her to South
Carolina by Friday. Making this track a reality depends on a number of
things - but I'll speculate on that later in the day. For now, to me it
looks like she is moving WSW or even possibly due S towards Haiti, but she
is not well organized so it's difficult to tell where the center of
circulation is versus the main area of convection. She is trying to get
around that high pressure system I mentioned in the last update, so a
S-WSW motion would not be suprising.

Haiti doesn't need any more rain, but unfortunately Hanna is dumping lots
of it there and there's a danger of landslides (yet again).

Ike:
He's still a fairly weak TS with 50mph winds, central pressure 1005mb.
Although there is low wind shear, he continues to be surrounded by dry air
and water temps are 27 deg C, so as I said yesterday, slow
intensification. This is in agreement with the NHC.

Officially he is around 19N, 43W, moving W at 15 mph. From satellite
imagery it looks like he's now at about 19.2N, 43.7W and is actually
moving more WNW - so he's a little north of the forecast track. He's
moving clockwise around a high pressure system out in the Atlantic and
will continue moving W or WNW for now.

TD 10:
So much for not writing about the Blob until it makes a move. I'm sure it
was reading this and made a move as soon as I hit send! Sneaky little
thing. Anyway, it's now officially Tropical Depression 10 and is just
south of the Cape Verde Islands, centered at 12.4N, 23.9W, out in the
eastern Atlantic. By the way, all of these Atlantic storms are called Cape
Verde Storms, named after those islands because that's the approximate
generation region. Winds are near 15mph, central pressure 1007mb and
there is good circulation in the lower troposphere. The wind shear is
moderate, and water temperatures are 26-28 deg C, so like Ike (hee hee) I
expect slow intensification. Also like Ike (hee hee again :) ), this one
is following the southern edge of a high pressure system in the Atlantic
and is moving W at 16 mph, and will continue in that W to WNW direction.

I'll be sending an update out later.

Toodle pip for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------

TS Gustav, Hurricane Hanna, TS Ike and the Blob: September 1 Update A

Well I'm back on planet Earth now and have seen snippets of news during
the day and we'll get to that but I wanted to thank everyone for the
overwhelming response on the newspaper article.

It looks like we have business to discuss. And lots of it!

Gustav:
As you all know made landfall this morning in Louisiana, west of New
Orleans, officially as a very strong cat 2 with winds just under 110 mph
(cat 2 range: 96-110mph) - esentially a border-line cat 2/cat 3 storm. I
think we are all watching with baited breath on how the levees are holding
up around New Orleans. The last I heard, although things are not good in
the LA/MS area, the levees were o.k.

He is now inland, at 31.1N, 92.7W, heading NW at about 13mph across LA
towards TX. He's decreased to a TS with winds near 60mph, central pressure
978mb. He'll be a Tropical Depression by Weds.

I expect they will pull the name Gustav from the list because he caused
about 90 deaths in the Caribbean and from what I've read so far, 7 in the
US.

This is my last entry on this storm as we have a few others out there to
look at now...

Hanna:
Here's our next problem child. She is a weak-to-moderate cat 1 storm with
winds of 80 mph, central pressure 978mb. Centered at 21.8N, 72.5W, she's
come to a bit of a stop. That's because she is bumping up against the same
high pressure system that Gustav is following, but he's on the other side.
It basically covers the south-eastern US and extends down to Cuba. As this
high begins to shift, she will be able to move, but for now she's causing
havoc (rains, winds etc) over the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas.
Until she starts moving and that high shifts, her exact track is tricky -
she could clip Florida at the moment before moving along the east coast of
the US, but there are a number of other possible scenarios. I'll try and
discuss some of those tomorrow. As I said with Fay, storms that move
slowly or stop are trickier to forecast than your usual beasties.

Water temperatures are over 30 deg C, and she is also over water that is
warm with depth - 26 deg C or higher over the upper 100m. This is one
reason she has increased in intensity, despite fairly strong wind shear
from the north. I am not sure she will increase much more though - at
least not for a couple of days.

Tropical Storm Ike:
This was one of the blobs that I mentioned a few days ago - one that had a
high chance of developing and everyone was watching it as it left Africa.
Well he became a TS this afternoon with winds near 50mph, central pressure
1000mb (TS range: 39-73 mph). He is moving West at a nice 14 mph and is
currently located at 18N, 41.6W. They forecast that he'll become a
hurricane on Wednesday. He is moving west along the southern edge of a
high pressure system in the Atlantic (remember, clockwise motion around
high pressure in the northern hemisphere). Water temperatures are 27-28
deg C, but moderate wind shear and he is surrounded by drier air so
there's a chance he will intensify but very slowly tomorrow.

The Blob:
There's an area of good circulation that is just off the coast of Africa
that may develop further. But I'll wait until it becomes a TD/TS before
mentioning this again. Next name up is Josephine.

Until tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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