Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Tropical Storms Hanna and Ike, TD 10: September 2 Update A

Tropical Storm-tourist season continues with Hanna, who is apparently
enjoying her visit to the Turks & Caicos and southern Bahamas because she
hasn't moved much.

Intensity: She weakened overnight because the wind shear is still pretty
good, she is beginning to interact with Haiti (see below), and she's been
loitering (mischieviously of course ;)) over the same area of water, so it
must be a tad cooler by now. Max. winds are 70 mph, central pressure

Track: Centered at 21.2N, 73.1W, she is officially "moving" W at a
whopping 2mph (ooh aaah). The forecast center of cone takes her to South
Carolina by Friday. Making this track a reality depends on a number of
things - but I'll speculate on that later in the day. For now, to me it
looks like she is moving WSW or even possibly due S towards Haiti, but she
is not well organized so it's difficult to tell where the center of
circulation is versus the main area of convection. She is trying to get
around that high pressure system I mentioned in the last update, so a
S-WSW motion would not be suprising.

Haiti doesn't need any more rain, but unfortunately Hanna is dumping lots
of it there and there's a danger of landslides (yet again).

He's still a fairly weak TS with 50mph winds, central pressure 1005mb.
Although there is low wind shear, he continues to be surrounded by dry air
and water temps are 27 deg C, so as I said yesterday, slow
intensification. This is in agreement with the NHC.

Officially he is around 19N, 43W, moving W at 15 mph. From satellite
imagery it looks like he's now at about 19.2N, 43.7W and is actually
moving more WNW - so he's a little north of the forecast track. He's
moving clockwise around a high pressure system out in the Atlantic and
will continue moving W or WNW for now.

TD 10:
So much for not writing about the Blob until it makes a move. I'm sure it
was reading this and made a move as soon as I hit send! Sneaky little
thing. Anyway, it's now officially Tropical Depression 10 and is just
south of the Cape Verde Islands, centered at 12.4N, 23.9W, out in the
eastern Atlantic. By the way, all of these Atlantic storms are called Cape
Verde Storms, named after those islands because that's the approximate
generation region. Winds are near 15mph, central pressure 1007mb and
there is good circulation in the lower troposphere. The wind shear is
moderate, and water temperatures are 26-28 deg C, so like Ike (hee hee) I
expect slow intensification. Also like Ike (hee hee again :) ), this one
is following the southern edge of a high pressure system in the Atlantic
and is moving W at 16 mph, and will continue in that W to WNW direction.

I'll be sending an update out later.

Toodle pip for now,

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

No comments: