Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike: September 13 Update A

Ike made landfall in Galveston at around 2-2.30am as a strong cat 2 storm
with winds nearing 110mph. He is now inland at 30.5N, 95.3W, but is still
a fairly good looking cat 1 hurricane with maximum winds near 90mph,
central pressure 962 mb (cat 1 range: 74-95mph), and he has a lot of
convective activity. Hurricane force winds extend out 125 miles from the

Currently he is moving N at 18mph. The forecast track calls for him to
move in a NNE direction later today.

Water levels peaked at over 12 ft in Galveston, of which the storm surge
was 10 ft above normal. Higher up the TX coast, Sabine Pass recorded a
surge of 12 ft, taking the water level there to 14 ft. These levels are
receding now. Fortunately the feared 20 -25 ft surge does not appear to
have happened, but it is still bad enough to cause serious damage.

The last I saw, an estimated 23,000 people remained in Galveston. In
addition to the Island being flooded, it looks like there are a number of
fires in houses and other places. I'm sure we will be glued to the news
coming out of there during the weekend.

I'll send out another update later as he continues to weaken. He has a lot
of rain with him, so it will be mostly a water-event for those inland.


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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