Sunday, September 07, 2008

Hurricane Ike: September 7 Update B


Hurray... they officially declared him a cat 3. This is lovely because he
has not yet got to Cuba and it looks like he is still weakening. As I
wrote earlier, his appearance, especially his convection, continues to be
a little ragged around the edges even though he still has a nice eye. I
agree with this cat 3 intensity assessment. The latest plane found winds
of 120 mph (central pressure 945 mb), making him a mid-sized cat 3 storm
(cat 3 range: 111-130 mph). It is unlikely that he will re-intensify as he
gets closer to Cuba, but if he follows a path along the island as
indicated in the official forecasts, then there's a good chance he will
emerge from Cuba and into the Gulf as a Tropical Storm, despite very
little wind shear.

Located at 21.1N, 74.6W, he is moving in a general westward direction
(WSW/WNW) at 14 mph. I still think he will go a little south of the center
of the cone track - maybe once he is over Cuba. We'll find out in the next
day or so, won't we?

The 4-5 day forecast track is still uncertain, as is the intensity.

All else is quiet(ish) on the eastern front...

Someone asked me where "Toodle pip" (farewell) comes from. Being the font
of knowledge regarding British things, I did what most people do these
days and carefully entered it into Google ;). Apparently it's one of those
things that just materialised into the British lingo. There are plenty of
theories out there, but most of it is speculation. I thought it came from
"Toodle-Ooo", which may have come from the French "A tout a l'heure", but
no one is sure. Oh well, c'est la vie... I've been using it for yonks

So... Toodle Pip,

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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