Thursday, September 11, 2008

Hurricane Ike and the Blobette: September 11 Update C

Just a quick note: The latest pressure fields show landfall most likely in
the north TX - west LA area.

As far as I can tell, the highest surge so far has been at Shell Beach
(LA), with 7ft above normal. This is partly because of the topography of
the area, which allows water to pile up there. It looks like that has just
about reached a maximum though. Galveston is at just over 2ft above
normal. Corpus Christi is at just under 2ft above normal.

Ike has patches of dry air within the main convection bands, so he is not
a very 'solid' looking storm (for want of a better word). I suspect he is
still a cat 2. It looks like the NHC has backed off a bit on their cat 3
forecast - it is forecast to happen now closer to landfall. I don't think
it will happen if he continues as he is because he will be interacting
with land long before then, and it looks like wind shear may even be
picking up soon.

I may be hallucinating, but it also looks like he is losing weight and
getting a bit slimmer. As he moves away from the Loop Current area the
moisture and heat energy being supplied by that ocean source is
diminishing. His current center of circulation is somewhere around 26.2N,
90.2W (there is no clear eye).

On a slightly different quick note...remember the
blobette-formally-known-as-Josephine? Someone asked me today what happened
to her... well, her remnants are lurking just north of the Caribbean/east
of the Turks/Caicos/Bahamas. Although there is not much circulation in
this system, there is some rain activity and winds are Tropical Storm
force. It is not officially a TS until there is some closed circulation
though - it is just some stormy/squally weather. The NHC has it marked as
less than 20% chance of developing. *If* it develops, I would just
continue with 'Josephine', but I don't know what the formal Ms. Hurricane
Manners guidebook says in this situation. :)

Time for a nice nap now... Stay Safe out west!

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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