TS Hanna and Hurricane Ike: September 6 Update B

Hanna:
She is now a weak TS (central pressure 994 mb) with max. winds of 50 mph
(TS range: 39-73 mph) and is moving NE at 28 mph. Currently centered
somewhere around 39N, 75W, she is really just a bit breezy and cloudy
(they are two of the seven dwarfs aren't they? ;)) – there's not much rain
showing on the satellite images. I got this message from a fearless
reporter in Maryland:

"Ho-hum, Hanna in College Park, MD at 15h10 ... rainy and okay windy, no big
deal ... :>"

Hanna will continue to weaken and move NE along the forecast track.

This will be my last entry on TS Hanna. We have bigger things to discuss…

Ike:
A plane flew into the system this afternoon and found winds of 135 mph
(central pressure 949 mb), making him a weak, but dangerous, cat 4 (wind
range: 131-155mph). The eye is not very clear though, and it does look
like the cloud tops are a little warmer than they were when the 5pm
advisory came out, so he might actually be a very strong cat 3. He is
still experiencing some wind shear from the north/north west, and it looks
like he is interacting a little with Hispaniola. But really, what's a few
mph when you have winds of that magnitude? As the information is from a
plane, I'll go with that accurate in situ data.

He is moving towards the Turks & Caicos/Southern Bahamas in a WSW
direction at 15mph. Haiti has not had much rain so far, just clouds.
However, as he gets closer and moves past I expect they will get some.

The forecast track continues to take him WSW and then W towards Cuba. If
he stays on that track, he will interact quite considerably with Cuba,
which should reduce his intensity. He is still too far out and my pressure
field information is still not at a fine enough resolution to make a call
on the track, so I will go with the official one – seems reasonable to me.

Now, the 4-5 day forecast. I want to emphasize the message the NHC has
been sending out consistently for the past few advisories: there is
ENORMOUS uncertainty in the 4-5 day forecast.

So, it would be prudent for everyone in ALL the gulf states to be prepared
(or at least make plans to be prepared). Currently, the weakness in the
pressure field is in the northern Gulf (LA to NW FL), but as you know,
these pressure fields change on a daily basis. It is about 2 days too soon
to tell. It is also too soon to be able to make an assessment on the
intensity as he gets into the Gulf. We'll just have to wait and see what
happens tomorrow and Monday morning.

That's all for today folks. Night night from this side of the 'pond',
where, by the way, within 36 hours of my arrival here we had TS force
winds (50 mph) and massive flooding in assorted parts of the country. It's
just like being in the tropics! Except a tad cooler. And not as humid. And
with fewer snakes and alligators... :)

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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