Saturday, September 06, 2008

TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike, TD Josephine: September 6 Update A

She did increase in intensity in the Gulf Stream region, but not quite to
hurricane strength, and is mostly a rain event. She made landfall near the
South/North Carolina border at about 3.20am today with winds below 70mph,
making her a strong TS at landfall (TS range: 39-73mph). Her location is
at about 34.4N, 78.3W and she is moving NNE at 22mph. They expect a NE
turn today, taking her along the coast. I would agree with this track.
Max. wind speeds have decreased to 60 mph and it's unlikely it will
increase because she will continue to interact with land, even if she is
skimming the coast. For those of you north of N. Carolina, if you want
more information send me a note – but by the time she gets to MD/NJ/NY or
even MA, I expect it to be mostly rain. Hope you weren't planning a
sunbathing trip to the beach this weekend! (but surfing is probably good
:) ).

If you want to follow her progress, and where and when it is raining, you
can look at the radar. Go to, click on one of the
blue dots on the map that are the locations of the radar. My favorite
version is to look at the movie loops (which may take some time to load on
your machine). To see those, on the left side you will see 'Short Range
Images', 'Reflectivity', 'Composites', and next to that 'Loop'. Click on
'Loop'. Or you can click on the 'Loop' under 'Long Range Images' for a
bigger picture. Have a play. Check it out.

First of all, whoever it is in the Bahamas who said that they have never
been hit by a tropical storm, please can you stand up, look east, then go
and hide. Thank you very much. And if you don't get any effects from Ike,
please can you move to Haiti? They could use your amazing storm-deflecting

Ike is a weak cat 3 storm with winds of 115 mph (wind range: 110-130mph),
central pressure 962mb, and curse him, he is moving W-SW. Grrr. Double
Grrr. Actually, I'll even go so far as to say Triple Grrr. The death
count in Haiti is now over 500 from being hit by three storms in three
weeks! Can you imagine how exhausted they must be? What a disaster. They
really don't need more rain from another one, but alas the clouds are
already moving in. He is heading towards the southern Bahamas and Turks &
Caicos, and is currently located at 22.4N, 67.1W.

Looks like the VIs won't get much rain from him – he's a little too north.
Maybe a bit breezy though.

I still do not have fine enough resolution in the pressure field but the
forecast track takes him WSW towards Cuba. In this case, his intensity
depends very much on how much he interacts with Cuba. The surrounding
water around Cuba is very warm – over 30 deg C. Hanna did cool the waters
in the southern Bahamas – down to 25-27 deg C in some areas, which is
good. Also, at the moment it looks like wind shear will increase for a
short time ahead of him, before he gets to Cuba, so although the official
forecast calls for re-intensification to a cat 4, there's a chance he will
remain a cat 3.

I have been watching the computer models, and the GFDL has been doing
really well this year with their 3-day forecast tracks. Whatever
adjustments they made since last year, good job! They have been
consistently out-performing most of the others. I will still watch and
compare of course.

So, after ignoring her for days, it looks like she's given up for now and
is a Tropical Depression again now. She is moving WNW at 9mph, max winds
near 30mph, located at 16.8N, 36.9W. Poor kid, she just couldn't take the
wind shear. It doesn't look like she will re-intensify, so this is my last
entry on Josephine – the easiest storm this year (except that first one
which shouldn't even have been named!). I'll continue to keep an eye on
this blobette though.

Later … but no gators otherwise we'll get back to that whole 'my football
team is better' thing from a few weeks ago… ;)

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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