Wednesday, September 03, 2008

TS Hanna, Ike and Josephine: September 3 Update A

You know what I forgot to add to my welcome blurb to the newbies
yesterday? The most important part! ... "Welcome... and Enjoy :) "

In an effort not to out-do each other, all three of our little friends
out there are about the same in intensity (officially anyway).

She is still enjoying her time just north of Hispaniola. For now it is
no longer raining over Haiti - I can only imagine the mess there though
- but rain continues on her eastern side over the Dominican Republic, PR
and the VIs (look up, you'll see it, let me know if it's enough for you
:)). She's experiencing wind shear from the west, so convection on the
east is to be expected. Winds are officially at 60mph (central pressure
996mb), making her a mid-size TS (TS range: 39-73mph), but looking at
the QuickScat satellite data it looks like her winds are about 45-50 mph
to me. We'll see what the 11am advisory says. She looks very ragged, so
I can't quite make out the center of circulation and I'll go with the
official one at 20.3N, 71.8W. She's supposedly moving eastward at 5mph,
but who the heck knows? I think she's just on a *peregrination* between
those islands. Hmmm... dilemma... should I tell you what that means or
let you look it up? I think I'll let you look it up :) (I've never used
that one in sentence before either, so I hope it's correct - I know
you'll let me know). Thanks to P. S. for sending that one in. Water
temperatures, as I thought, have decreased underneath and are now about
27-28 deg C... although the area under the convective activity is warmer
at 30 plus deg. C. Until she starts to move, the long-term forecast is
uncertain. They have landfall on Sat. now in S. Carolina, but she needs
to get moving first before I'm going to make a call on the track. The
high pressure to the north of her has lifted, but her eastward movement
suggests she is moving around a low pressure now (counter-clockwise
movement around a low pressure in the northern hemisphere).

He's at about 20.6N, 50.6W and is moving WNW at 18mph. I expect that
direction to continue for at least another day as he is on the southern
edge of a high pressure system in the Atlantic (clockwise movement
around a high pressure in the northern hemisphere). The forecast calls
for the high to expand westward, which will take him farther west as
well - the high has indeed expanded a bit westward. I'm don't have
information on how far that expansion will continue. He slowly
intensified yesterday and winds are now 65mph, making him a
mid-to-strong TS, central pressure 996mb. Wind shear is weak, and water
temperatures are also low(ish) at 27 deg C, so I think he'll stay as a
TS for another day at least.

She's at 13.7N, and about 28 W, and is also moving WNW at 13 mph and has
winds of 60mph (central pressure 1000mb). She has slowly intensified
since yesterday, as we expected, but I'm not sure she will grow too much
more. There is wind shear to her north and water temps are 27 deg C.
She's also moving around that high pressure system in the Atlantic, so
continuing on her WNW path seems likely. I think she has a greater
chance of entering the Caribbean or clipping the north-eastern edge, so
you guys in the VIs - keep an eye on her (once the rain has stopped from
Hanna of course). Not too much more to say about her yet.

Well... I'm er leaving the state again. I know, I know... at least one
of you is getting very suspicious that I keep leaving when there's a
storm anywhere near Florida. It's just coincidence. Really. How was I to
know we'd have tropical storms during the peak portion of the Hurricane
Season? ;) I'm really not running away - you know I'd tell you if I was
going to do that! I will try and update as often as I can, but they
might be infrequent. So it's over the the NHC & NWS (and any other
sources you have).

Stay Safe!

Toodle pip,

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


Vince Arcuri said...

Great info! I'll plan my showings on your accurate forecasts.
- Vince

Jyo said...

Thanks...just so you know, I'm not always right though! Best bet is those with the most info at their fingertips - the NHC. And within 24 hours of landfall, they are much better than me for sure!