Saturday, September 13, 2008

Hurricane Ike: September 12 Update C

Ike will make landfall soon, and yet another disaster is looming from this
storm! The storm surge is now 10ft above predicted levels and rising -
from Galveston all the way into the western LA coast. Low tide is over,
and so water levels will also begin to increase from the normal tides as
well. Eugh.

Locations in TX south of Galveston, such as Corpus Christi, are
experiencing about 4 feet of storm surge and strong convective activity -
in fact that entire section of coastline, and possibly as far inland as
Austin (including Houston of course) looks like it is experiencing hefty
rains and thunderstorms.

He has winds of near 110 mph (952 mb central pressure), making him a
strong cat 2 storm (96-110 mph wind range), and really at this point there
is very little difference between him and a very weak cat 3. But, as you
know, the damage will be primarily from the water, not the wind.

Moving NW at 12 mph, at 11pm (EDT) he was about 45 miles SSE of Galveston
with his center officially located at that time at 28.7N, 94.5W. On this
trajectory, this puts the city directly in the eye, or in the worst side
of the storm with winds pushing the water onto the island. However, in the
hour or so since then, it looks like the leading edge of his eye (which is
quite broad) will make landfall in Galveston within the next 30 mins - 1

On top of the surge, there are the damaging and strong waves to consider.
I really hope people evacuated as they were told. I know there's a sea
wall there, but I've already seen pictures of the water coming over the

I'll send another update out in the morning.
Be safe out there!

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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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