Friday, September 05, 2008

TS Hanna, Hurricane Ike, TS Josephine: Sept 5 Update A

I don't have much time so I'm going to have to put Josephine on hold again
for today (sorry Jo). She's out there, she's a weak TS with winds of 45
mph, heading WNW at 10mph, central pressue 1002mb, etc etc.

More importantly - Hanna!!

Looking at the latest pressure fields, it looks like the high pressure has
expanded westward and now covers North Carolina. Unless that retreats
eastward, it looks like she's heading towards S. Carolina - everyone from
Jax./FL to N. Carolina should be ready (I expect you already are!).

She weakened over night and looks quite ragged now - convection diminished
quite a bit, but she is approaching the Gulf Stream waters so if she's
going to regain anything, that's where it will happen. She'll definitely
pick up moisture there - so dust off your wellies and brollies :).

The 2am advisory had her going NW at 18 mph, located at 27.2N, 77.2 W,
with winds of 65mph. Satellite winds at the moment (about 4.20am EDT) are
showing max. 40 knot winds (~45 mph) (multiply knots by 1.15 to get mph),
which is considerably weaker.

I won't be able to check in until tomorrow - so be safe.

Next: Ike. Grrr.
He was still a good looking cat 4 storm with winds at the 11pm advisory of
135 mph (central pressure 945mb) (cat 4 range: 131-155mph). It looks like
he is experiencing some wind shear though, and it also looks like he has
decreased in intensity to something like a cat 3 (range: 111-130mph) - I
suppose it could be a cycle he's going through. He's heading west at
14mph, and is located now (about 4.30am EDT) at 23.6N, 61W.

Today is the day he is forecast to make that W-SW turn towards the
southern Bahamas/Hispaniola region. It is difficult for me to make an
assessment on that because the pressure fields I have are too coarse in
resolution that far out. I'll just have to see what has happened when I
next get a chance (tomorrow).

Right... have to go. I'll be back when I can. Be good.
Toodle pip,

Blogs archived at:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


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Jyo said...

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