Monday, September 08, 2008

Hurricane Ike: September 8 Update B

He has continued west today over Cuba - taking him south of the
track/center of cone that was forecast yesterday, which is what I thought
might happen. He has also decreased to a cat 1 and has winds of 80mph (cat
1 range: 74-95 mph), central pressure 965mb. His location is around 21.4N,
79.7W and he is heading W at 14mph. This slightly southern track takes him
south of Cuba and over warm water again, but he may not intensify *too*
much because he continues to interact with land. It really depends how far
west he continues. The forecast now calls for him to take a WNW motion
overnight, and back over Cuba.

There is a high pressure system holding firm over the northern and eastern
Gulf. The forecast tracks have all shifted southwards as well and are now
heading towards Texas. This is not unreasonable at the moment, because he
is moving along the southern edge of that high pressure.

I don't have too much time right now (apologies), but I will try and get
to this tomorrow evening - I'll only have time for one update tomorrow.
What we are looking for between now and then is his WNW turn.

More tomorrow ... and I'll try to discuss the Gulf intensity possibilities
then, and may have a better idea (guess! ;)) of landfall in a few days

(I can't type now anyway as I have my fingers crossed for Andrew Murray in
the US Open... :) )


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These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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