Tuesday, September 02, 2008

Tropical Storms Hanna, Ike and Josephine: September 2 Update B

Crikey! It's come to my attention that a there are A LOT of new people
reading these updates. So for you newbies, here are some ground rules:
1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and
tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that fits those
three words). It is just what I think.
2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.
3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometime 4.
If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to
write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.
4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python.
5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please
do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you.
;) I've talked about a lot of things already, but I can cut and paste
from previous entries as well as the next person so if I say something
or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.
6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek,
which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm,
irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately
they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended -
like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece
of chocolate or a drink instead.
7. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to
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http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane (my mail
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words are all there though.)
8. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your
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9. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting
is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all
out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay
attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and
your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because
they have the most up-to-date information!!
10. I have a British sense of humoUr... did I mention that one already?

Now the actual Update.

I think we'll have to cut the caffeine for Mother Nature. She's had too
much... we now have three Tropical Storms: Hanna (sans Barbera), Ike
(sans Tina), and Josephine (sans Napoleon).

As I suspected, she's been 'drifting' southwards during the day - and a
bit eastward too. Until she becomes unstuck, it's still a complicated to
forecast the track and the timing of that track. Having looked at the
latest pressure maps though, it looks like the high is shifting
northwards and away ...so I expect her to start moving West and then
West-Northwest, then NW in the next 24 or so hours. She's very ragged in
appearance, so it is difficult to find her center of circulation and
I'll go with the official one at around 20.6N, 72.9W. Max winds are near
70 mph (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), making her a strong TS (central
pressure 985 mb). Although she still has some pretty decent wind shear,
there's a good chance she will become a cat 1 within 24 hours, assuming
she begins to move WNW-NW and away from land (and by land I mean
Hispaniola, not the Bahamas etc) and over water temperatures that are a
balmy 30 deg C. The NHC forecast calls for a slower strengthening than
that based on the wind shear she has ahead of her (and that would be
just fine with me).

At 11am he was at around 18.9N, 45 W and was speeding westward at 18
mph. I'm not 100% sure I agree with that direction. It looks like he is
moving NW to me, so he is now at about 19.5N, 45.3W or so. I agree that
the winds are about 60mph (1002 mb central pressure), making him a
mid-sized TS. He is currently moving along the southern edge of a high
pressure system in the Atlantic, so I think he'll continue NW for a
while longer, then get back on a westward track - maybe tomorrow. The
forecast calls for this high pressure to expand westward, so his three
day forecast track takes him to the er... southern Bahamas/Hispaniola
region as well. We might need to send them some more umbrellas. He'll
continue his slow intensification today.

TD 10 became TS Josephine at the 11am advisory. She is way way out East
at around 13.2N, 25.3W and is officially moving W at 15 mph (although
WNW would be more accurate). Winds are 40mph (central pressure 1005 mb)
- there was a typo in my previous update, I meant to write that TD 10
had winds of 35 mph not 15 mph, so 40mph is not a big jump! She is
following Ike's footsteps and is also moving along the southern edge of
the high pressure system in the Atlantic, so she will continue generally
westward for a few days yet and she will also gradually intensify.

I think that's it for today folks, unless there's a big change to report.
Until the morrow...

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.


Anonymous said...

Thank you for the refreshing diversion.I caught the article about you in the St. Pete Times. Reading NOAA/NHC is akin to chewing sawdust.

Monty Python brought my husband and I together 30 years ago right here in St. Pete. Always glad to connect with a fan.

Here is a link to an already existing "Hurricane" Hannah for your amusement. Perhaps you can work him in.


Jyo said...

Cool, thanks! Hurray for Monty Python :) I will check out the wiki page next... welcome :)