Here we go. A real storm. Yay! (Maybe.) (For now anyway.) (And if it stays in the Atlantic.) (I'd like to apologise for the writer of this entry for using too many parenthesis. The writer has been sacked.) (We now) (have a) (new writer.) (Who has also just been sacked and we're going back to the original). (A la classic Monty Python. ;-)).
Yesterday our Atlantic Blobette was upgraded to a Tropical Depression, meaning it had a closed circulation and winds of less than 39 mph. The forecast has it upgrading to a Tropical Storm later today (Danielle), and I don't see anything that will stop that progression.
It's currently somewhere around 11.8N, 33.1W, moving WNW at 8mph. Central pressure is 1008mb and wind speed is 35mph. I think it will continue on a general WNW path for now.
Sea surface water temperatures are warm enough to sustain a storm, at 28-30 deg C, with waters of 26.5 deg C in the upper 50m of the water column. Wind shear is on the lower end of the spectrum and looks like it will remain low for the next few days. There is some dry air, mixed with Saharan Dust, north of the system, but it's far away enough from the center that I don't think it will inhibit convection continuing to develop slowly. The one thing about this Depression that I haven't seen in the others we've had this year is that the vorticity (circulation) is already quite strong in the lowest half of the troposphere, but also extends up to the top of the troposphere (albeit weakly). If this continues to hold steady or improve, this has a good chance of being a hurricane.
Now I hope you are sitting for this as it will come as a bit of a shock to my long-time readers ... but I agree with the NHC forecast at the moment for both track and intensity! :-) (don't worry, i'm sure at some point this year I'll recover and become my cantankerous old self ;-)).
Enjoy your Sunday!
More later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 22, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
Atlantic Blobette: August 20, Update A
Just in time for the weekend (typical)... there's a rather large and not well defined blobette way out there, around 10N, 25-30W, in the eastern Atlantic. This one, unlike some of the previous jejune 'storms' we've had, looks like it may develop if it can pull itself together (geographically speaking) instead of being spread out over such a large area. It has some 'eastern promise'! ;-) And finally! I've been waiting to use 'jejune' in a sentence. Oh happy day! :-)
There is some nice vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere (say in the lower 5-7km), and there's quite a bit of convection in the mix already. Wind shear is low and there doesn't appear to be too much dry or dust-filled air in the immediate vicinity, so we'll see how this one progresses. It's very early days at the moment so no point thinking about the track really, other than it's going to be moving generally westward for a few days.
I'll watch it, but won't send another update unless I can weave in another cool word or er... I suppose if something interesting happens to this blobette. So probably tomorrow! ;-)
Ciao for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
There is some nice vorticity (circulation) in the lowest half of the troposphere (say in the lower 5-7km), and there's quite a bit of convection in the mix already. Wind shear is low and there doesn't appear to be too much dry or dust-filled air in the immediate vicinity, so we'll see how this one progresses. It's very early days at the moment so no point thinking about the track really, other than it's going to be moving generally westward for a few days.
I'll watch it, but won't send another update unless I can weave in another cool word or er... I suppose if something interesting happens to this blobette. So probably tomorrow! ;-)
Ciao for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Northern Gulf Blob formerly known as TD5: August 17, Update A
The "center of circulation" of this not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob made "landfall" in the Louisiana/Mississippi area earlier today. As it moved over land, just like any other not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob it lost some of the associated convection, but the circulation remained strong. However, in the last few hours convective activity has increased again and the circulation is still strong in the lowest half of the troposphere. The NHC have removed this as anything of interest, which is fine as this not-a-Tropical-Depression-blob is now inland. I'll still keep an eye on it until the vorticity (circulation) dies down. But this will be my last entry on this unless it makes yet another come-back - maybe off the US east coast or something, just for a change of scenery. ;-)
I think I have a backlog of things to chat about (thanks to assorted conversations), so I'll probably be writing bits between all these storms. Upcoming blurbs will include things like "Oh my, what a busy Hurricane Season we're having!", "A talk about boys...er I mean buoys", and er... I forgot the third topic already, so you might have just lucked out. ;-)
That's all for today though.
Night night and tally ho! ;-)
J.
p.s.... I just remembered the third thing: "Gone Out with the Wind: A story about outflow, convergence and divergence in tropical storms". You guys are in for so much fun! (bwaa haa haa - yes, that is my evil laugh she says, rubbing her hands together in glee).
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I think I have a backlog of things to chat about (thanks to assorted conversations), so I'll probably be writing bits between all these storms. Upcoming blurbs will include things like "Oh my, what a busy Hurricane Season we're having!", "A talk about boys...er I mean buoys", and er... I forgot the third topic already, so you might have just lucked out. ;-)
That's all for today though.
Night night and tally ho! ;-)
J.
p.s.... I just remembered the third thing: "Gone Out with the Wind: A story about outflow, convergence and divergence in tropical storms". You guys are in for so much fun! (bwaa haa haa - yes, that is my evil laugh she says, rubbing her hands together in glee).
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 16, 2010
Northern Gulf Blob formerly known as TD5: August 16, Update A
Huh. I'm pretty sure that by the official definition of 'Tropical Depression', this blob is a Tropical Depression (TD). When I say "official definition", I don't mean *my* official definition which, of course, is always correct (in my world anyway). ;-) I mean the actual official official definition of a Tropical Depression - a closed circulation with winds below 39 mph.
It clearly has a closed circulation, as seen in satellite images and also as found by a plane that was sent to investigate the system this afternoon (from the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER"). Winds from surface buoy observations in the area are at a maximum of 21 mph. Drawing upon my vast scientific knowledge, I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that 21 is less than 39! ;-) I reckon it's a TD.
The vorticity (circulation) is pretty good in the lowest half of the atmosphere. The convection now extends into Texas, even though the center of circulation is just south of Alabama. It looks like it is moving WNW, towards the Mississippi/Louisiana area.
There are three things that are keeping this blob on the weaker end of the spectrum: it is interacting with land, the warm water is very shallow, and there is some decent wind shear, which means the convection is mostly to the south and west of the center of circulation. So, even though I think this is a TD, I am not sure it will get to Tropical Storm status (winds greater than 39 mph) because of these factors.
If you suffer from sea-sickness, I don't recommend going out on the Gulf any time soon. Waters have been a bit on the 'oh yeah, that's what I had for lunch' side in the Gulf, with reports of 9 ft plus seas (thanks for the note Gene S.). It might be good for you surfers - but I expect your surf-dar already told you that and you are all out there and not reading this anyway! :-) Water levels along the coast aren't too high - about 1ft above normal in the Mississippi area.
That's all I got... until tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
It clearly has a closed circulation, as seen in satellite images and also as found by a plane that was sent to investigate the system this afternoon (from the NHC: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FOUND A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER"). Winds from surface buoy observations in the area are at a maximum of 21 mph. Drawing upon my vast scientific knowledge, I can tell you with 99.99% certainty that 21 is less than 39! ;-) I reckon it's a TD.
The vorticity (circulation) is pretty good in the lowest half of the atmosphere. The convection now extends into Texas, even though the center of circulation is just south of Alabama. It looks like it is moving WNW, towards the Mississippi/Louisiana area.
There are three things that are keeping this blob on the weaker end of the spectrum: it is interacting with land, the warm water is very shallow, and there is some decent wind shear, which means the convection is mostly to the south and west of the center of circulation. So, even though I think this is a TD, I am not sure it will get to Tropical Storm status (winds greater than 39 mph) because of these factors.
If you suffer from sea-sickness, I don't recommend going out on the Gulf any time soon. Waters have been a bit on the 'oh yeah, that's what I had for lunch' side in the Gulf, with reports of 9 ft plus seas (thanks for the note Gene S.). It might be good for you surfers - but I expect your surf-dar already told you that and you are all out there and not reading this anyway! :-) Water levels along the coast aren't too high - about 1ft above normal in the Mississippi area.
That's all I got... until tomorrow!
Ciao,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 15, 2010
The northern Gulf Blob formerly known as Tropical Depression 5: August 15, Update A
You know sometimes there is a glitch in The Matrix? In ancient times it was also known as 'Deja Vu'? Well, we've got one! The phrase "I'm not dead yet" (Monty Python) springs to mind yet again - this time with Tropical Depression 5.
I know, I know, we thought we'd seen the last of this one about four days ago. Well apparently that was just to lull us into a false sense of security. Although it did go over land (southern US states) ... it's back. There's a lot of convection that has flared up as the remnants of this depression moved in a southwestward direction and back towards the Gulf. The convection is currently over Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, with some over Florida and Georgia. Circulation (vorticity) is pretty strong for a storm that's coming *off* the land - it's got a nice structure in the lowest half of the troposphere (up to about 5km above the earth's surface). In the last few hours, the portion of the storm that is over water began to look like a real tropical storm, as opposed to a blob. It has some nice outflow in the southern flanks. (I'll have to explain this outflow business one day, but it be bed time here so that can wait).
Looking at the closest buoys (e.g. from NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, the buoy at Orange Beach, Alabama: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012), the highest wind speeds that I can see at the moment are only around 24 mph, so it's not yet a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), but I think it could certainly be re-classified as a Tropical Depression. If it is, I'll have a proper look at all the stuff (wind shear etc). For now, this is just a heads up (although if you are in the rainy bits, you might want to stick your head down until you get to a drier spot ;-) ).
I don't think this will get very strong because it is also interacting with land, but if it continues to move offshore then there's a chance for some intensification. However, despite it's current 'weak' state there are some *very* strong thunderstorms in this system - both on and off-shore - which will bring a lot of rain, strong gusts of wind, lightning etc. I hope all of you in in the Gulf (and southern) states have your rain hats, brollies, wellington boots, and canoes ready...
That's it for today from this side of the pond. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I know, I know, we thought we'd seen the last of this one about four days ago. Well apparently that was just to lull us into a false sense of security. Although it did go over land (southern US states) ... it's back. There's a lot of convection that has flared up as the remnants of this depression moved in a southwestward direction and back towards the Gulf. The convection is currently over Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana, with some over Florida and Georgia. Circulation (vorticity) is pretty strong for a storm that's coming *off* the land - it's got a nice structure in the lowest half of the troposphere (up to about 5km above the earth's surface). In the last few hours, the portion of the storm that is over water began to look like a real tropical storm, as opposed to a blob. It has some nice outflow in the southern flanks. (I'll have to explain this outflow business one day, but it be bed time here so that can wait).
Looking at the closest buoys (e.g. from NOAA's National Data Buoy Center, the buoy at Orange Beach, Alabama: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42012), the highest wind speeds that I can see at the moment are only around 24 mph, so it's not yet a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph), but I think it could certainly be re-classified as a Tropical Depression. If it is, I'll have a proper look at all the stuff (wind shear etc). For now, this is just a heads up (although if you are in the rainy bits, you might want to stick your head down until you get to a drier spot ;-) ).
I don't think this will get very strong because it is also interacting with land, but if it continues to move offshore then there's a chance for some intensification. However, despite it's current 'weak' state there are some *very* strong thunderstorms in this system - both on and off-shore - which will bring a lot of rain, strong gusts of wind, lightning etc. I hope all of you in in the Gulf (and southern) states have your rain hats, brollies, wellington boots, and canoes ready...
That's it for today from this side of the pond. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
Night!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tropical Depression 5: August 11, Update B
Hee hee... I am computer-less for a day and the tropical depression dissipates. I love it. That's how they should all behave - wouldn't that be great? I'd be on holiday all the time in that case! ;-)
Tropical Depression 5, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, never really got it's act together and remained a big blobby mess. There was (and still is) some convection, as people various states around the Gulf experienced today (and will continue to tonight and tomorrow), but the area of circulation (vorticity) remained too diffuse to be a storm so I'm really pleased that it's been downgraded back to a Low. Water levels are still higher than normal along the coast - like 2ft above normal at Cedar Key and 1ft above normal at Pensacola and Dauphin Island. The NHC issued their last advisory on this at 4pm CDT (5pm EST), with a nominal central location of 28.3N, 87.6W, central pressure of 1009mb, moving NW at 12mph with winds of 30mph.
No more to say on this one folks and all else looks quiet for now. Yay!
Until the next one (umm... i think Sept. 9 seems like a good day for that, don't you?)... be good! ;-)
Toodle pippy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression 5, the Gulf of Mexico Blob, never really got it's act together and remained a big blobby mess. There was (and still is) some convection, as people various states around the Gulf experienced today (and will continue to tonight and tomorrow), but the area of circulation (vorticity) remained too diffuse to be a storm so I'm really pleased that it's been downgraded back to a Low. Water levels are still higher than normal along the coast - like 2ft above normal at Cedar Key and 1ft above normal at Pensacola and Dauphin Island. The NHC issued their last advisory on this at 4pm CDT (5pm EST), with a nominal central location of 28.3N, 87.6W, central pressure of 1009mb, moving NW at 12mph with winds of 30mph.
No more to say on this one folks and all else looks quiet for now. Yay!
Until the next one (umm... i think Sept. 9 seems like a good day for that, don't you?)... be good! ;-)
Toodle pippy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression 5: August 11, Update A
This is, at the moment, a very poor excuse for an official tropical depression! Convection is really minimal (although that might pick up during the day of course), and the circulation is so diffuse that it's more like a front than I usually see in tropical depressions or storms. I don't see this becoming much of a storm.
Officially, as of the 5am advisory, the center is at 26.8N, 85.1W, but it's so poorly formed that the center could be anywhere in that area and as far north as 28N. Central pressure is 1008mb, which is still pretty high. It's moving NW at 10mph, and the wind speed has been kept to 35mph, but I suspect it's less than that. Observations from a USF/College of Marine Science buoy (http://comps.marine.usf.edu/index?view=station&id=C12) located at 27.5N, 83.7W showed 21.7 mph winds about 2-3 hours ago, with an increasing trend in wind speed.
There is little wind shear, which will allow the storm to develop. But counteracting that, it is surrounded by dry air and although sea surface temperatures are a slightly toasty 30+ deg C, the warm water is a very shallow layer. Maybe it'll get up to Tropical Storm status at some point, maybe not.
The water level at Naples leveled out at 1ft above normal, St. Pete is just under a foot above normal but also looks like it leveled out, Cedar Key is still rising, but just under 1 foot, Appalachicola is at just over 1ft, and Pensacola looked like it peaked at 1ft and is holding steady (kinda) at the moment.
The forecast track is still currently towards the Mississippi delta, but to me, it looks like it will make land-fall east of there... maybe even on the Florida Panhandle. It's tricky to tell because it's a messy little blob. The Gulf has definitely had worse fronts pass through!
From J.D. in Pinellas an on-the-ground weather report: "It's been swirly girly in Pinellas County all day. Felt very tropical something growing." Thanks! :-)
This will be a two-update day I reckon. Lucky you! ;-) But first, it's off to the shops for me and then for a lurverly coastal walk (i do like holidays! :-) The sun even came out to play again. Yes, in England. It's been sunny here for months on end... i'm getting quite a tan! ;-)).
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Officially, as of the 5am advisory, the center is at 26.8N, 85.1W, but it's so poorly formed that the center could be anywhere in that area and as far north as 28N. Central pressure is 1008mb, which is still pretty high. It's moving NW at 10mph, and the wind speed has been kept to 35mph, but I suspect it's less than that. Observations from a USF/College of Marine Science buoy (http://comps.marine.usf.edu/index?view=station&id=C12) located at 27.5N, 83.7W showed 21.7 mph winds about 2-3 hours ago, with an increasing trend in wind speed.
There is little wind shear, which will allow the storm to develop. But counteracting that, it is surrounded by dry air and although sea surface temperatures are a slightly toasty 30+ deg C, the warm water is a very shallow layer. Maybe it'll get up to Tropical Storm status at some point, maybe not.
The water level at Naples leveled out at 1ft above normal, St. Pete is just under a foot above normal but also looks like it leveled out, Cedar Key is still rising, but just under 1 foot, Appalachicola is at just over 1ft, and Pensacola looked like it peaked at 1ft and is holding steady (kinda) at the moment.
The forecast track is still currently towards the Mississippi delta, but to me, it looks like it will make land-fall east of there... maybe even on the Florida Panhandle. It's tricky to tell because it's a messy little blob. The Gulf has definitely had worse fronts pass through!
From J.D. in Pinellas an on-the-ground weather report: "It's been swirly girly in Pinellas County all day. Felt very tropical something growing." Thanks! :-)
This will be a two-update day I reckon. Lucky you! ;-) But first, it's off to the shops for me and then for a lurverly coastal walk (i do like holidays! :-) The sun even came out to play again. Yes, in England. It's been sunny here for months on end... i'm getting quite a tan! ;-)).
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Atlantic Blobette and Tropical Depression 5: August 10, Update A
Atlantic Blobette:
Yet again, not much change in this system. It's just there. Hanging out, chatting with the fishes at around 25N, 52W. Some convection (not much), some low level atmospheric circulation (not much). It's just there. Until it does something interesting, this is my last update on this blobette.
Tropical Depression 5:
Yesterday this was the Gulf of Mexico Blob but circulation has improved even though convection has decreased. A plane was sent into the system and identified closed circulation so this has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. The center is at about 26N, 84.1W, with a central pressure of 1007mb. Winds are 35mph. The bulk of the rain and thundery weather is in the southern part of this system and coincides with the area of the deepest warm water (i.e. the Loop Current - see science alert in http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/07/tropical-depression-bonnie-july-23.html for ocean currents info). Even then, the rain is less severe than the stuff that passed across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday (or was it the day before).
Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are high - over 30 deg C. It's moving NW at 6pm, and the forecast track at the moment takes it straight to the mouth of the Mississippi on Thursday... I haven't yet had a chance to see my usual pressure fields etc. Hopefully tomorrow.
One thing to watch out for is rising water levels along the coast of Florida and then eventually parts of the northern Gulf. As winds circulate in a counter-clockwise direction in a tropical storm in the northern hemisphere, they will push water up against the coast. To check water levels, go to http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ (there's a link on the left side of my blog page too), click on 'State Maps' on the left, click on the state you are interested in (e.g. Florida), click on the location there are observations (e.g. Naples) and you'll get a figure that shows the observed water level (red), the predicted water level (blue and based on tides), and the difference (green). So, for example, at the moment water level is 1ft above normal in Naples and is approaching that at Pensacola.
Right... it be waaay past sleepy time where I am!
Until tomorrow, zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Yet again, not much change in this system. It's just there. Hanging out, chatting with the fishes at around 25N, 52W. Some convection (not much), some low level atmospheric circulation (not much). It's just there. Until it does something interesting, this is my last update on this blobette.
Tropical Depression 5:
Yesterday this was the Gulf of Mexico Blob but circulation has improved even though convection has decreased. A plane was sent into the system and identified closed circulation so this has been upgraded to a Tropical Depression. The center is at about 26N, 84.1W, with a central pressure of 1007mb. Winds are 35mph. The bulk of the rain and thundery weather is in the southern part of this system and coincides with the area of the deepest warm water (i.e. the Loop Current - see science alert in http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/07/tropical-depression-bonnie-july-23.html for ocean currents info). Even then, the rain is less severe than the stuff that passed across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday (or was it the day before).
Wind shear is low and sea surface temperatures are high - over 30 deg C. It's moving NW at 6pm, and the forecast track at the moment takes it straight to the mouth of the Mississippi on Thursday... I haven't yet had a chance to see my usual pressure fields etc. Hopefully tomorrow.
One thing to watch out for is rising water levels along the coast of Florida and then eventually parts of the northern Gulf. As winds circulate in a counter-clockwise direction in a tropical storm in the northern hemisphere, they will push water up against the coast. To check water levels, go to http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/ (there's a link on the left side of my blog page too), click on 'State Maps' on the left, click on the state you are interested in (e.g. Florida), click on the location there are observations (e.g. Naples) and you'll get a figure that shows the observed water level (red), the predicted water level (blue and based on tides), and the difference (green). So, for example, at the moment water level is 1ft above normal in Naples and is approaching that at Pensacola.
Right... it be waaay past sleepy time where I am!
Until tomorrow, zzzzzzzzzzzz........
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, August 09, 2010
Atlantic Blobette and Gulf of Mexico Blob: August 9, Update A
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much to report since yesterday really. There is still some low level circulation, which you can clearly see for yourselves in the visible satellite images. I wrote about how to access those a couple of days ago - drop me a line if you didn't remember every word I wrote (and why don't you??? ;-) ) or you can't be bothered to look at previous entries (me neither). It's somewhere around 24N, 50W and moving WNW at 10-15 mph, but convection is really low - I think there's maybe 4-5 rain drops in there somewhere. It's surrounded by dry air (dust).
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This blob was the strong convection over Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday. There's a tad bit of circulation in this system at the moment, centered somewhere over the SW Florida coast (near Naples/Ft. Myers I'm guessing), but there's no convection at that location. The convection extends in a curved line from the northern Gulf coast down towards Cuba and then around and back up to the Bahamas (Florida has her shields set to 80% apparently). It seems unlikely that this will develop into a full blown tropical storm given that it's so close to assorted land masses, but southern Florida is a little umm... different... from other land masses. ;-)
Let's see... ah yes, another very important point I must address. I got a comment doubting Billy Crystal's presence in The Princess Bride. Wielding my super-magical powers (cough...Google...cough), I think he is there as Miracle Max. That was the funny little guy with a wife, and they lived in a tree or something and something then something else... anyway, he's in there, but just wearing a lot of make-up so he's easy to miss. ;-)
That's all for now.
Toodles!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Not too much to report since yesterday really. There is still some low level circulation, which you can clearly see for yourselves in the visible satellite images. I wrote about how to access those a couple of days ago - drop me a line if you didn't remember every word I wrote (and why don't you??? ;-) ) or you can't be bothered to look at previous entries (me neither). It's somewhere around 24N, 50W and moving WNW at 10-15 mph, but convection is really low - I think there's maybe 4-5 rain drops in there somewhere. It's surrounded by dry air (dust).
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This blob was the strong convection over Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba yesterday. There's a tad bit of circulation in this system at the moment, centered somewhere over the SW Florida coast (near Naples/Ft. Myers I'm guessing), but there's no convection at that location. The convection extends in a curved line from the northern Gulf coast down towards Cuba and then around and back up to the Bahamas (Florida has her shields set to 80% apparently). It seems unlikely that this will develop into a full blown tropical storm given that it's so close to assorted land masses, but southern Florida is a little umm... different... from other land masses. ;-)
Let's see... ah yes, another very important point I must address. I got a comment doubting Billy Crystal's presence in The Princess Bride. Wielding my super-magical powers (cough...Google...cough), I think he is there as Miracle Max. That was the funny little guy with a wife, and they lived in a tree or something and something then something else... anyway, he's in there, but just wearing a lot of make-up so he's easy to miss. ;-)
That's all for now.
Toodles!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 08, 2010
Tropical Depression Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 8, Update A
Tropical Depression Colin:
The NHC downgraded him to a tropical depression earlier today, and in their 5pm advisory they said that he had dissipated and that was their last advisory on the system. While I agree with the downgrade to tropical depression, I think I need to clarify what they mean by 'dissipated' - which to most people suggests he's vanished, but this is weather-speak jargon. Essentially, it means that he's now just an area of low pressure, so he has still got convection (thunderstorms and rain) but no closed circulation... so for those on Bermuda, in some senses "He's only mostly dead" as Billy Crystal said in The Princess Bride (sent to me by Dede W.) ;-)
It looks to me like he still has some decent circulation in the lowest part of the atmosphere, and as I said, there is still some convection. I've been getting updates from Steve B. on Bermuda who said it was stormy at various points during the day - that would be because of the isolated thunderstorms moving over Bermuda as part of the tropical storm low. Actually, it looks like parts of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba had even more severe thunderstorms today than Bermuda!
For you guys in Bermuda, I'm not sure the rain is over yet. Although the 'center' according to the NHC is at 32.9N, 65.5W, he's not very organized so that's just to give us an idea of location. However the convection is still mostly south of you (moving northwards), and it looks like it is re-building so you might have a "bit more" rain... hope you have your rain-hats and wellie boots ready!
From the NHC: Central pressure is estimated to be 1015mb (not low pressure at all!) and he's moving N at 12 mph with winds of 30mph.
This is probably my last update on TS Colin as well, unless he tries for yet another round!
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much change in status since yesterday in this one... it still has circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is building. It's somewhere around 24N, 46W, moving in a NW direction. There is dry air surrounding this system and some inhibiting wind shear, so the convection is northeast of the center, but it looks like it has closed circulation to me. I think this might be a Tropical Depression already. Maybe tomorrow the NHC will "Make it so!" (Capt. Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek NG). ;-)
Until the morrow,
Ciao!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
The NHC downgraded him to a tropical depression earlier today, and in their 5pm advisory they said that he had dissipated and that was their last advisory on the system. While I agree with the downgrade to tropical depression, I think I need to clarify what they mean by 'dissipated' - which to most people suggests he's vanished, but this is weather-speak jargon. Essentially, it means that he's now just an area of low pressure, so he has still got convection (thunderstorms and rain) but no closed circulation... so for those on Bermuda, in some senses "He's only mostly dead" as Billy Crystal said in The Princess Bride (sent to me by Dede W.) ;-)
It looks to me like he still has some decent circulation in the lowest part of the atmosphere, and as I said, there is still some convection. I've been getting updates from Steve B. on Bermuda who said it was stormy at various points during the day - that would be because of the isolated thunderstorms moving over Bermuda as part of the tropical storm low. Actually, it looks like parts of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba had even more severe thunderstorms today than Bermuda!
For you guys in Bermuda, I'm not sure the rain is over yet. Although the 'center' according to the NHC is at 32.9N, 65.5W, he's not very organized so that's just to give us an idea of location. However the convection is still mostly south of you (moving northwards), and it looks like it is re-building so you might have a "bit more" rain... hope you have your rain-hats and wellie boots ready!
From the NHC: Central pressure is estimated to be 1015mb (not low pressure at all!) and he's moving N at 12 mph with winds of 30mph.
This is probably my last update on TS Colin as well, unless he tries for yet another round!
Atlantic Blobette:
Not too much change in status since yesterday in this one... it still has circulation in the lowest half of the troposphere, but convection is building. It's somewhere around 24N, 46W, moving in a NW direction. There is dry air surrounding this system and some inhibiting wind shear, so the convection is northeast of the center, but it looks like it has closed circulation to me. I think this might be a Tropical Depression already. Maybe tomorrow the NHC will "Make it so!" (Capt. Jean-Luc Picard, Star Trek NG). ;-)
Until the morrow,
Ciao!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, August 07, 2010
Tropical Storm Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 7, Update A
Tropical Storm Colin:
Colin has decided that hanging around all day in the same general vicinity (gaining conviction and convection) is hard work and he'd like some rum-based cocktails for refreshment, so he's now making a move towards Bermuda. He is currently centered at about 29.4N, 65.7W, and is moving NNE at 7pm.
He's a very weak Tropical Storm, with winds barely at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 1012mb. Actually, with a pressure that high and winds that low I'd say he's not really a tropical storm but an ex-TS again... however I'll go with the NHC on this one for now. Despite the low wind and general disorganization he did pick up on the convection front, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. That's to be expected because wind shear is low and he's been hovering over waters of 28-29 deg C. Circulation is still strong in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it looks like it's weakening.
A late afternoon note from Steve in Bermuda: the <storm> has arrived. was having a lovely afternoon sketching palm trees. wind is okay but swivling rain. it's a downer.
The forecast track has the center passing close to Bermuda, with the highest chance being to the west of the island, but I think there's a chance he's going to pass to the east. Regardless, he'll be close enough to only need a short straw in his drink (and maybe a few dozen umbrellas ;-)). The difference between going to the west or to the east, even slightly, is important though because of the direction the winds will hit the island and also because the really heavy rain is (at the moment) mostly to the east of the center. The rain and thunderstorms, not the wind, will be the bigger player when he passes by.
More when he's visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
Atlantic Blobette:
Well this one decided to get it's act together in a rush - at least as far as circulation goes. There is now a better defined area of circulation, but it really is in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere. It's centered somewhere in the (very broad) vicinity of 20N, 40W... which is a nice and northern latitude - already north of the Caribbean. So there's a good chance that if this develops it may stay in the Atlantic (or follow Colin!). Although there is some circulation, the satellite images (see yesterday's blog entry on satellite imagery and how to look for yourselves) don't show much in the way of rain or thunderstorms... just some clouds. It's moving WNW at 15mph.
That's all from this side of the churning waters of the Atlantic for now.
Bye-ee!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Colin has decided that hanging around all day in the same general vicinity (gaining conviction and convection) is hard work and he'd like some rum-based cocktails for refreshment, so he's now making a move towards Bermuda. He is currently centered at about 29.4N, 65.7W, and is moving NNE at 7pm.
He's a very weak Tropical Storm, with winds barely at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph) and central pressure estimated to be 1012mb. Actually, with a pressure that high and winds that low I'd say he's not really a tropical storm but an ex-TS again... however I'll go with the NHC on this one for now. Despite the low wind and general disorganization he did pick up on the convection front, with the strongest showers and thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. That's to be expected because wind shear is low and he's been hovering over waters of 28-29 deg C. Circulation is still strong in the lowest levels of the atmosphere, but it looks like it's weakening.
A late afternoon note from Steve in Bermuda: the <storm> has arrived. was having a lovely afternoon sketching palm trees. wind is okay but swivling rain. it's a downer.
The forecast track has the center passing close to Bermuda, with the highest chance being to the west of the island, but I think there's a chance he's going to pass to the east. Regardless, he'll be close enough to only need a short straw in his drink (and maybe a few dozen umbrellas ;-)). The difference between going to the west or to the east, even slightly, is important though because of the direction the winds will hit the island and also because the really heavy rain is (at the moment) mostly to the east of the center. The rain and thunderstorms, not the wind, will be the bigger player when he passes by.
More when he's visiting Bermuda tomorrow.
Atlantic Blobette:
Well this one decided to get it's act together in a rush - at least as far as circulation goes. There is now a better defined area of circulation, but it really is in the lowest couple of kilometers of the atmosphere. It's centered somewhere in the (very broad) vicinity of 20N, 40W... which is a nice and northern latitude - already north of the Caribbean. So there's a good chance that if this develops it may stay in the Atlantic (or follow Colin!). Although there is some circulation, the satellite images (see yesterday's blog entry on satellite imagery and how to look for yourselves) don't show much in the way of rain or thunderstorms... just some clouds. It's moving WNW at 15mph.
That's all from this side of the churning waters of the Atlantic for now.
Bye-ee!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Friday, August 06, 2010
TS Colin and the Atlantic Blobette: August 6, Update B
TS Colin:
Poor Colin... he's barely a Tropical Storm actually - although circulation is good, there is hardly any convection. Come on Colin, if you want to be a Tropical Storm with conviction, you gotta have convection! I got a note (or three) from Steve B. in Bermuda, who said it had started to get breezy about 5 hours ago... surfs up! ;-) It looks like he (Colin, not Steve) will pass to the east of Bermuda. Even if the eye goes directly over it, what little convection there is will be to the east.
Currently he's at 28.3N, 66.6W (!), and moving N at 9mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb.
Satellite Imagery:
If you would like to see him swirling and twirling away in the Atlantic for yourself you can look at satellite images or movies. Go to the NHC site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml and scroll down to where it says 'Atlantic Views'. Under that it says 'GOES-East', and under that it says 'Atlantic Wide Views' or 'Western Atlantic' or 'Caribbean' etc. Under any of these, you can pick an image or a movie (Java or Flash). Visible gives you the visible image in black and white, so at night it's not as clear as during the day. Water Vapor (at the bottom of each list) gives you water vapor. The other one I use most frequently is IR AVN (2nd one down on the list), which is the infrared image with colours added on. These colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud. It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere, so we can tell from cloud top temperature how strong the convection is. The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures (other than a dark gray), and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. These generally correspond to how much convection is occuring - the redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and yellow areas are mostly clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (in the red/dark gray areas).
For Colin, I suggest looking at the Western Atlantic set of images. There is also usually a close up of a system that is of interest. These are near the top of this page and are labelled Atlantic Floater 1 (Colin), 2 etc.
Once you have a movie open, there are a series of tabs at the top. You can play with those, but they include things like latitude/longitude grids, sea surface temperature, and the forecast track of the storm. At the bottom is the time the image was taken. Have a play! Then you can follow other storms as they develop. How fun is that? You, too, could spend entire evenings sitting at home watching satellite image movies of storms developing. Just like me. Er... I mean I do other fun things too...really... ;-)
The Atlantic Blobette:
Looking at the Atlantic Wide imagery, you can see this 'little' blobette is still way out there in the Atlantic - somewhere around the 30-40W range, between 10-20N. If you look at the IR AVN images you will notice that although there are a lot of clouds at the moment there aren't many that are yellow, orange or red... they are mostly blue and white, which means it's just cloudy with not a lot of rain or thunderstorms. There's some low level circulation, but it's slap bang in the middle of a massive layer of dust blowing off the Sahara, which is drying out the atmosphere and inhibiting convection. I'll keep an eye on this because 'tis the season (ho ho ho), but for now it's just a bunch of clouds (with very little rain) and not a lot of convection.
That's it from me on the storm front for today. But to change the subject with absolutely no segueway whatsoever, Will L. sent me this amusing article from The Irish Times about tourism. It made me chuckle, so I thought it might make you chuckle too...
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2010/0806/1224276300586.html
Enjoy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Poor Colin... he's barely a Tropical Storm actually - although circulation is good, there is hardly any convection. Come on Colin, if you want to be a Tropical Storm with conviction, you gotta have convection! I got a note (or three) from Steve B. in Bermuda, who said it had started to get breezy about 5 hours ago... surfs up! ;-) It looks like he (Colin, not Steve) will pass to the east of Bermuda. Even if the eye goes directly over it, what little convection there is will be to the east.
Currently he's at 28.3N, 66.6W (!), and moving N at 9mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1009mb.
Satellite Imagery:
If you would like to see him swirling and twirling away in the Atlantic for yourself you can look at satellite images or movies. Go to the NHC site: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.shtml and scroll down to where it says 'Atlantic Views'. Under that it says 'GOES-East', and under that it says 'Atlantic Wide Views' or 'Western Atlantic' or 'Caribbean' etc. Under any of these, you can pick an image or a movie (Java or Flash). Visible gives you the visible image in black and white, so at night it's not as clear as during the day. Water Vapor (at the bottom of each list) gives you water vapor. The other one I use most frequently is IR AVN (2nd one down on the list), which is the infrared image with colours added on. These colours represent how high the clouds reach into the atmosphere because they are based on the temperature at the top of the cloud. It gets colder the higher you get in the troposphere, so we can tell from cloud top temperature how strong the convection is. The red colours are very big high clouds with the coldest temperatures (other than a dark gray), and blues and whites are lower, warmer clouds. These generally correspond to how much convection is occuring - the redder the cloud colour, the more active the convection. My general rule of thumb (having seen these images and lived under them at the same time) is that blue and yellow areas are mostly clouds, with some rain in the yellow areas. But as you get to the orange and red, you get thunderstorms and possible tornadoes (in the red/dark gray areas).
For Colin, I suggest looking at the Western Atlantic set of images. There is also usually a close up of a system that is of interest. These are near the top of this page and are labelled Atlantic Floater 1 (Colin), 2 etc.
Once you have a movie open, there are a series of tabs at the top. You can play with those, but they include things like latitude/longitude grids, sea surface temperature, and the forecast track of the storm. At the bottom is the time the image was taken. Have a play! Then you can follow other storms as they develop. How fun is that? You, too, could spend entire evenings sitting at home watching satellite image movies of storms developing. Just like me. Er... I mean I do other fun things too...really... ;-)
The Atlantic Blobette:
Looking at the Atlantic Wide imagery, you can see this 'little' blobette is still way out there in the Atlantic - somewhere around the 30-40W range, between 10-20N. If you look at the IR AVN images you will notice that although there are a lot of clouds at the moment there aren't many that are yellow, orange or red... they are mostly blue and white, which means it's just cloudy with not a lot of rain or thunderstorms. There's some low level circulation, but it's slap bang in the middle of a massive layer of dust blowing off the Sahara, which is drying out the atmosphere and inhibiting convection. I'll keep an eye on this because 'tis the season (ho ho ho), but for now it's just a bunch of clouds (with very little rain) and not a lot of convection.
That's it from me on the storm front for today. But to change the subject with absolutely no segueway whatsoever, Will L. sent me this amusing article from The Irish Times about tourism. It made me chuckle, so I thought it might make you chuckle too...
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/features/2010/0806/1224276300586.html
Enjoy!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Colin: August 6, Update A
The immortal phrase "I'm not dead yet" (Monty Python) springs to mind for some reason. ;-)
So... the Tropical Storm Formerly Known As 'The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin' IS BACK! (I can see why Colin thought he'd try for a remake of Terminator. After all, this is a summer of macho-men movies with The A-Team and that other one with all those 80s and90s 'action' actors in it that I'm obviously not going to see.)
This time he really does look like a Tropical Storm (well he did yesterday and the day before), so I won't mumble or grumble anymore about a wasted name. He was steadily improving in looks for the last couple of days, with pretty strong circulation in the lowest little bit (say lowest 2-3 km) of the troposphere (the name for the lowest 10-16km of our atmosphere)... but that has now extended and the circulation looks strong from about 6-7km down to the surface.
He was upgraded back to a TS yesterday evening, and is currently centered at 26.4N, 67.3W, moving NNW at 14mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb with maximum wind speeds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's not very well put together - the center of circulation is easily seen in satellite images and what little convection there is, is entirely to the east because of wind shear. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be too much in the way of convection so although he is forecast to remain a tropical storm for the next few days (he passes Bermuda tomorrow). Unless he does some body-building exercises I'm not sure I'd classify him as such for much longer.
If there are any tales from Bermuda, I'll let y'all know. They are probably out on a research cruise ship at sea.... ;-)
More later amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So... the Tropical Storm Formerly Known As 'The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin' IS BACK! (I can see why Colin thought he'd try for a remake of Terminator. After all, this is a summer of macho-men movies with The A-Team and that other one with all those 80s and90s 'action' actors in it that I'm obviously not going to see.)
This time he really does look like a Tropical Storm (well he did yesterday and the day before), so I won't mumble or grumble anymore about a wasted name. He was steadily improving in looks for the last couple of days, with pretty strong circulation in the lowest little bit (say lowest 2-3 km) of the troposphere (the name for the lowest 10-16km of our atmosphere)... but that has now extended and the circulation looks strong from about 6-7km down to the surface.
He was upgraded back to a TS yesterday evening, and is currently centered at 26.4N, 67.3W, moving NNW at 14mph. Central pressure is estimated to be 1007mb with maximum wind speeds of 50mph (TS range: 39-73mph). He's not very well put together - the center of circulation is easily seen in satellite images and what little convection there is, is entirely to the east because of wind shear. At the moment, there doesn't seem to be too much in the way of convection so although he is forecast to remain a tropical storm for the next few days (he passes Bermuda tomorrow). Unless he does some body-building exercises I'm not sure I'd classify him as such for much longer.
If there are any tales from Bermuda, I'll let y'all know. They are probably out on a research cruise ship at sea.... ;-)
More later amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, August 03, 2010
The Tropical Storm Formerly Known As Colin: August 3, Update A
Blink and you missed it! Tropical Storm Colin is now ex-Tropical Storm Colin. I had all these Colin jokes planned... oh well, I'll have to save them for next time (in 6 years when the name comes round again). :-)
I don't know why they bothered giving him a name because he didn't really look like a tropical storm for much more than two minutes. He remained a dinky little thing for the duration. Too much dry air and dust just didn't let that convection get beyond a certain point, despite the high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. We've had more severe daily thunderstorms! There was some circulation, but it remained confined to the lower part of the troposphere and was already weakening when they declared him a named storm. The forecast track was, indeed, moved southward as I thought it might be in my last update because he was on a more westward trajectory. Now he's back to being a Tropical Depression and what a waste of a named storm! This one shouldn't really count when they do the tally at the end of the year! (mumble grumble).
"He" is currently at about 15.8N, 53.8W, moving WNW at a rapid 35mph (meaning he's not a tropical storm at all, but part of a low frontal system). Central pressure is estimated to be around 1006mb. The winds are still just about tropical storm force at 40 mph (TS lower limit is 39mph), but that's just an estimate based on remote satellite data. Circulation is still weakening.
This is my last entry on this blob, unless he decides to try again for that reality thingy. Next name is Danielle. Ooh... one of my favourite movies has a character called Danielle. :-)
Adieu for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I don't know why they bothered giving him a name because he didn't really look like a tropical storm for much more than two minutes. He remained a dinky little thing for the duration. Too much dry air and dust just didn't let that convection get beyond a certain point, despite the high sea surface temperatures and weak wind shear. We've had more severe daily thunderstorms! There was some circulation, but it remained confined to the lower part of the troposphere and was already weakening when they declared him a named storm. The forecast track was, indeed, moved southward as I thought it might be in my last update because he was on a more westward trajectory. Now he's back to being a Tropical Depression and what a waste of a named storm! This one shouldn't really count when they do the tally at the end of the year! (mumble grumble).
"He" is currently at about 15.8N, 53.8W, moving WNW at a rapid 35mph (meaning he's not a tropical storm at all, but part of a low frontal system). Central pressure is estimated to be around 1006mb. The winds are still just about tropical storm force at 40 mph (TS lower limit is 39mph), but that's just an estimate based on remote satellite data. Circulation is still weakening.
This is my last entry on this blob, unless he decides to try again for that reality thingy. Next name is Danielle. Ooh... one of my favourite movies has a character called Danielle. :-)
Adieu for now,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, August 02, 2010
Tropical Depression 4: August 2, Update A
This is a dinky little blob, isn't it? It's still struggling with reality, even though it got upgraded to a Tropical Depression. And speaking of reality... John L. gets a prize for finding my er... deliberate grammatical obfuscations in the last entry. Yeah, that's it. Deliberate obfuscations. ;-)
The Blob is hanging out at 13N, 42.5W, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Maximum winds are estimated at 35 mph, and it's moving at a pretty rapid 16mph in a general WNW direction.
Convection is not very strong, despite relatively small wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 28 -29 deg C. It looks like the convection is being inhibited by a lot of Saharan Dust to the north (and possibly within the storm itself) and a lot of dry air to the west. This will continue for a while so this little blob may have a few problems really getting its act together over the next few days (one, two, three... awww ;-)).
Track. Hmm. Yes, it's on a track ;-). Currently it's moving WNW, and the forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, and up towards the North Carolina/Bermuda part of the Atlantic. I think that over the next day or so, it will head a little more to the west than anticipated at the moment which means that track will shift to the south and west. We'll see what happens.
I had a couple of emails last week about 'long range' forecasts. I believe US media showed a rather large storm that would be off the east coast of Florida 'in ten days'... meaning on August 8... and heading to the New England area. I just wanted to mention these now because you might come across such long-term forecasts (10 - 15 days) in the future. These still fall in the research realm as far as I'm aware, and not in the 'official forecast' realm. They are a nice little 'heads up' for forecasters but still to be taken with a pinch or five of salt, and certainly not enough to base your holiday plans on! :-) I first heard about these long range forecasts two years ago. Scientists are still working on understanding what causes a storm to develop and as that understanding improves, computer models are used to try and forecast storm generation. It would be great to know that there will be a storm in two weeks time but at the moment the results can be a bit hit-or-miss. It's all still nascent work (I love that word... no, no, not 'work'(!)... 'nascent'!). One of the things I'll be looking out for this season is how many of these long range forecasts match reality - not necessarily in terms of where the storm is, but that a storm develops in the first place.
More tomorrow, when according to the forecasts we'll have Tropical Storm Colin out there.
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
The Blob is hanging out at 13N, 42.5W, with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1006mb. Maximum winds are estimated at 35 mph, and it's moving at a pretty rapid 16mph in a general WNW direction.
Convection is not very strong, despite relatively small wind shear and sea surface temperatures of 28 -29 deg C. It looks like the convection is being inhibited by a lot of Saharan Dust to the north (and possibly within the storm itself) and a lot of dry air to the west. This will continue for a while so this little blob may have a few problems really getting its act together over the next few days (one, two, three... awww ;-)).
Track. Hmm. Yes, it's on a track ;-). Currently it's moving WNW, and the forecast takes it north of the Caribbean, and up towards the North Carolina/Bermuda part of the Atlantic. I think that over the next day or so, it will head a little more to the west than anticipated at the moment which means that track will shift to the south and west. We'll see what happens.
I had a couple of emails last week about 'long range' forecasts. I believe US media showed a rather large storm that would be off the east coast of Florida 'in ten days'... meaning on August 8... and heading to the New England area. I just wanted to mention these now because you might come across such long-term forecasts (10 - 15 days) in the future. These still fall in the research realm as far as I'm aware, and not in the 'official forecast' realm. They are a nice little 'heads up' for forecasters but still to be taken with a pinch or five of salt, and certainly not enough to base your holiday plans on! :-) I first heard about these long range forecasts two years ago. Scientists are still working on understanding what causes a storm to develop and as that understanding improves, computer models are used to try and forecast storm generation. It would be great to know that there will be a storm in two weeks time but at the moment the results can be a bit hit-or-miss. It's all still nascent work (I love that word... no, no, not 'work'(!)... 'nascent'!). One of the things I'll be looking out for this season is how many of these long range forecasts match reality - not necessarily in terms of where the storm is, but that a storm develops in the first place.
More tomorrow, when according to the forecasts we'll have Tropical Storm Colin out there.
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, August 01, 2010
Atlantic Blob: August 1, Update A
There's a blob that's been trying to get a handle on reality for the past couple of days. Sounds a bit like me! ;-)
Although it has had some convection, there wasn't much circulation until the last few hours. But things are changing slowly and it is now beginning to pick up some spin (vorticity), mostly in the lower-to-middle troposphere. It's not yet a Tropical Depression (not officially anyway), let alone a storm, but certainly worth watching. It's somewhere around 9N, 38W, moving in a westward direction.
It's past my bedtime and it's a work day tomorrow and this is just a blob at the moment, so that's it for now. (Why can't we have three day weekends... i just about get the hang of them by sunday evening! ;-) ).
More tomorrow...
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Although it has had some convection, there wasn't much circulation until the last few hours. But things are changing slowly and it is now beginning to pick up some spin (vorticity), mostly in the lower-to-middle troposphere. It's not yet a Tropical Depression (not officially anyway), let alone a storm, but certainly worth watching. It's somewhere around 9N, 38W, moving in a westward direction.
It's past my bedtime and it's a work day tomorrow and this is just a blob at the moment, so that's it for now. (Why can't we have three day weekends... i just about get the hang of them by sunday evening! ;-) ).
More tomorrow...
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Bonnie the blobette: July 24, Update A
Bonnie wasn't much to be concerned about once she got into the Gulf because of the factors I mentioned yesterday. Earlier today convection picked up a bit, but not enough to write about. Er... apart from that last sentence. ;-)
Her center is still over the Gulf, at about 28.5N, 87.6W, central pressure around 1011mb. Although officially winds are 30mph, I think it's less than that. She's moving WNW at 14mph. All tropical storm watches & warnings were cancelled earlier today.
This is my last update on Bonnie. I'll write next when there's a blob that looks like it would enjoy being called Colin (next name).
That's all for now! Have fun my friends.
J.
------------
Disclaimer: Read the blog for proper disclaimer - I'm too busy having a lazy Saturday. ;-)
------------
Her center is still over the Gulf, at about 28.5N, 87.6W, central pressure around 1011mb. Although officially winds are 30mph, I think it's less than that. She's moving WNW at 14mph. All tropical storm watches & warnings were cancelled earlier today.
This is my last update on Bonnie. I'll write next when there's a blob that looks like it would enjoy being called Colin (next name).
That's all for now! Have fun my friends.
J.
------------
Disclaimer: Read the blog for proper disclaimer - I'm too busy having a lazy Saturday. ;-)
------------
Friday, July 23, 2010
Tropical Depression Bonnie: July 23, Update B
Crossing Florida just took the steam out of this wee Bonnie lass ;-).
She's back to being a Tropical Depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and central pressure of 1009mb. There are pockets of heavy rainfall, but most of the really stong convection (thunderstorms etc) vanished once she was over land and away from the Florida Current. Wind shear has been more-or-less consistent from the south-southeast all day, so the convective activity remained north-northwest of the center.
She sped across the state in about 5.5 hours and is now leaving the west coast via Naples. Her current position is near 26.2N, 81.9W and she's still moving WNW at a rapid 18 mph. She has consistently remained on the northern edge of the cone with almost every advisory, which is why she's farther north than the forecast from a couple of days ago (hence avoiding the Keys). If this continues, whatever is left of her will make landfall in Alabama or possibly Florida again - along the Panhandle (just what you need Pensacola, isn't it?).
I don't anticipate much development over the Gulf, although the surface waters are a warm 29-30 deg C. There are a number of factors that I think will act against any further development. First, she is moving very quickly, so the time over warm water is reduced. Second, she won't be anywhere near the Loop Current <science alert... see below>, and will be mostly over the West Florida Shelf, which is a broad and shallow shelf and the warm water is not very deep. And thirdly, it looks like wind shear will increase even further. The only thing to really keep an eye on is the vorticity (circulation), which is still quite strong in the lowest part of the troposphere.
<Science alert> The Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico becomes the Florida Current, which in turn becomes the Gulf Stream - kinda like a long windy road that changes name at major intersections. And before it becomes the Loop Current in the Gulf, it is the Yucatan Current in the Caribbean. Crossing any part of this long ocean current system is dicey for storms because the warm water is veerrry deep. A storm churns up water, but when it crosses these areas it churns up more warm water instead of cold water, so it has more 'fuel' and lo-and-behold, convection increases. We saw this in action today when convective activity really picked up as it crossed from the Bahamas to the south east coast of Florida. <End of science alert>.
Notes from the trenches:
- Marathon (in the Keys) - this afternoon they had lovely blue skies and 5mph winds - from Gene S.
- Miami was wet, but not as bad as the stuff Puerto Rico had - from Chris M. (who is having a rather soggy moving day, but they are leaving Florida so getting hit by a weak Tropical Storm seems a fitting farewell).
And sent in from Richard S.:
My Bonnie lies over FLO-RI-DA,
My Bonnie lies over MEEE.
My Bonnie lies over FLO-RI-DA,
So send Bonnie back out to Sea!!
Done. :-)
To wrap up the blob in the western Gulf of Mexico story: it produced a lot more rain and thunder than Bonnie, but it's over land, so no blob.
That's all for today.
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
She's back to being a Tropical Depression with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and central pressure of 1009mb. There are pockets of heavy rainfall, but most of the really stong convection (thunderstorms etc) vanished once she was over land and away from the Florida Current. Wind shear has been more-or-less consistent from the south-southeast all day, so the convective activity remained north-northwest of the center.
She sped across the state in about 5.5 hours and is now leaving the west coast via Naples. Her current position is near 26.2N, 81.9W and she's still moving WNW at a rapid 18 mph. She has consistently remained on the northern edge of the cone with almost every advisory, which is why she's farther north than the forecast from a couple of days ago (hence avoiding the Keys). If this continues, whatever is left of her will make landfall in Alabama or possibly Florida again - along the Panhandle (just what you need Pensacola, isn't it?).
I don't anticipate much development over the Gulf, although the surface waters are a warm 29-30 deg C. There are a number of factors that I think will act against any further development. First, she is moving very quickly, so the time over warm water is reduced. Second, she won't be anywhere near the Loop Current <science alert... see below>, and will be mostly over the West Florida Shelf, which is a broad and shallow shelf and the warm water is not very deep. And thirdly, it looks like wind shear will increase even further. The only thing to really keep an eye on is the vorticity (circulation), which is still quite strong in the lowest part of the troposphere.
<Science alert> The Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico becomes the Florida Current, which in turn becomes the Gulf Stream - kinda like a long windy road that changes name at major intersections. And before it becomes the Loop Current in the Gulf, it is the Yucatan Current in the Caribbean. Crossing any part of this long ocean current system is dicey for storms because the warm water is veerrry deep. A storm churns up water, but when it crosses these areas it churns up more warm water instead of cold water, so it has more 'fuel' and lo-and-behold, convection increases. We saw this in action today when convective activity really picked up as it crossed from the Bahamas to the south east coast of Florida. <End of science alert>.
Notes from the trenches:
- Marathon (in the Keys) - this afternoon they had lovely blue skies and 5mph winds - from Gene S.
- Miami was wet, but not as bad as the stuff Puerto Rico had - from Chris M. (who is having a rather soggy moving day, but they are leaving Florida so getting hit by a weak Tropical Storm seems a fitting farewell).
And sent in from Richard S.:
My Bonnie lies over FLO-RI-DA,
My Bonnie lies over MEEE.
My Bonnie lies over FLO-RI-DA,
So send Bonnie back out to Sea!!
Done. :-)
To wrap up the blob in the western Gulf of Mexico story: it produced a lot more rain and thunder than Bonnie, but it's over land, so no blob.
That's all for today.
Toodle pip!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 23, Update A
Quick lunchtime (my lunchtime) update via phone!
TS Bonnie has, indeed, been following a path that's been on the northern side of the cone, and is shortly going to arrive on the south east coast of Florida. She's obviously in a rush to get there and visit the NHC (in Miami) in person because she's moving at a very fast 18mph! The convection picked up as she began interacting with the Florida Current, but because of strong wind shear from the south, most of the rain & thunder is on the northern side if the center of circulation. Free car wash for anyone in SE Florida! ;-)
Because of the shear, she's a weak system with max winds still at about 40mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and central pressure of 1008mb.
I know there's a lot of concern about her getting into the Gulf, but at this point it doesn't look too bad. If she'd gone over the Keys, I'd be a bit more concerned. If I recall correctly, Florida and the Gulf in general has had equally severe, if not worse, weather since the oil spill started. Of course, now I've said this I'm reminded of Tropical Storm Fay, which actually intensified as she crossed southern Florida a couple of years ago. The thing to watch out for over the next few hours is how much the convection decreases as it moves across the state.
More later. Lunch done. Back to this real work lark. Don't forget your raincoats if you live in Florida, anywhere south of Orlando! And let me know what the weather is (and if you don't want me to post your comments, let me know that too!).
Later gators! (and er... now what was that other one...?) ;-)
J.
-------------------------
Disclaimer: Same as on my website, but can't cut & paste on phone. Will do it later. Pay attention to your local emergency managers, the NHC, and NWS. I just do this for a hobby! ;-)
-------------------------
TS Bonnie has, indeed, been following a path that's been on the northern side of the cone, and is shortly going to arrive on the south east coast of Florida. She's obviously in a rush to get there and visit the NHC (in Miami) in person because she's moving at a very fast 18mph! The convection picked up as she began interacting with the Florida Current, but because of strong wind shear from the south, most of the rain & thunder is on the northern side if the center of circulation. Free car wash for anyone in SE Florida! ;-)
Because of the shear, she's a weak system with max winds still at about 40mph (TS range: 39-73 mph) and central pressure of 1008mb.
I know there's a lot of concern about her getting into the Gulf, but at this point it doesn't look too bad. If she'd gone over the Keys, I'd be a bit more concerned. If I recall correctly, Florida and the Gulf in general has had equally severe, if not worse, weather since the oil spill started. Of course, now I've said this I'm reminded of Tropical Storm Fay, which actually intensified as she crossed southern Florida a couple of years ago. The thing to watch out for over the next few hours is how much the convection decreases as it moves across the state.
More later. Lunch done. Back to this real work lark. Don't forget your raincoats if you live in Florida, anywhere south of Orlando! And let me know what the weather is (and if you don't want me to post your comments, let me know that too!).
Later gators! (and er... now what was that other one...?) ;-)
J.
-------------------------
Disclaimer: Same as on my website, but can't cut & paste on phone. Will do it later. Pay attention to your local emergency managers, the NHC, and NWS. I just do this for a hobby! ;-)
-------------------------
Thursday, July 22, 2010
Tropical Storm Bonnie: July 22, Update B
The NHC just upgraded TD3 to Tropical Storm Bonnie, based on further information from a reconnaissance aircraft. Maximum wind speeds are now 40 mph (TS range: 39-73 mph), making her only just a Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 1005mb. She's still moving in a NW direction at 14mph, and their revised center location is 22.9N, 75.4W.
The only other change I see is that convection is picking up slightly again, which backs the increase in wind speed.
Next update from me tomorrow. Really. I mean it this time. ;-)
Good night from this side of the pond!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
The only other change I see is that convection is picking up slightly again, which backs the increase in wind speed.
Next update from me tomorrow. Really. I mean it this time. ;-)
Good night from this side of the pond!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tropical Depression 3 & Gulf of Mexico Blob: July 22, Update A
Tropical Depression 3:
Woo hoo... we have the third Tropical Depression of the season! :-)
Our rainy little western Atlantic blobette got upgraded to a Tropical Depression today (one, two, three... aww! ;-)). A Tropical Depression is when the system has 'closed' circulation but winds are less than 39 mph. For this TD, maximum winds are currently 35mph and central pressure is 1006mb. A plane was out there this afternoon and found it wasn't strong enough (yet) to be a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph). I'd agree with this because from the satellite images it looks like it's still struggling. Convection, although looking good earlier today, has decreased over the last few hours.
It's visiting the Bahamas (how nice). The NHC have the center of circulation at 22.7N, 75.4W moving NW at 14mph. I agree with the NW movement, but I might have had one too many glasses of wine because that doesn't look quite like the location of the center to me. From satellite images, I think the center is somewhere around 22.8N, 74.9W. This suggests that the forecast track may be to the right (northern edge) of the current cone, which means it's currently heading towards the east coast of Florida. BUT, the forecast from the NHC is that the pressure patterns that are steering this will change (based on models), and it will begin heading WNW tomorrow, bringing it to the southern tip of Florida, the Keys and then into the Gulf eventually - but only as a very weak Tropical Storm. Bear in mind is that this is a weak system, and it's typically harder to forecast the track of weak systems because it's difficult to find the center.
Wind shear died down a bit today, which is what gave this system a chance, but it looks like it might pick up again. Sea surface water temperatures are around 28-29 deg C, but temperatures warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend very deep because the water depth is pretty shallow. I think that if this system is going to pick up any strength it will be when it's close to or over the Florida Current system, but that's a day or two away and it depends on atmospheric conditions at the time.
The other factor that may be contributing towards inhibiting it is Saharan Dust. It's difficult to see in the satellite images because of the all the clouds (go figure!), but there is a lot of dust blowing off Africa at the moment, and extending across the Atlantic. I got this from Gene S. today:
"I have been in Marathon Fla (in my boat) for more than a week due to 25 mph wind out of the east. We have been having one heck of a dust storm since last Friday. visibility has been way down ..and air temp is hot and humid as the dickens. We can smell the dust. Last Sat it was so bad in Stuart, Fla that African dust made the front page of the news paper."
---------
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This rather large beasty is over the Bay of Campeche, near Mexico. Convection with this system has been very strong - poor Mexico is getting lashings of rain with a dollop of thunder and lightning! Water temperatures are over 29-30 deg C here and wind shear is weak. The circulation is as strong in the lower half of the troposphere as that in the TD, so I would have thought this was also a TD by now. It is close to Mexico, so there's a chance it will make landfall without getting to that status.
---------
That's all for today folks. Oh, my cat would like to add: 'mggggreee333eeezz'. I think it means 'stop writing and give me some food before I fall asleep'. ;-)
Until tomorrow amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Woo hoo... we have the third Tropical Depression of the season! :-)
Our rainy little western Atlantic blobette got upgraded to a Tropical Depression today (one, two, three... aww! ;-)). A Tropical Depression is when the system has 'closed' circulation but winds are less than 39 mph. For this TD, maximum winds are currently 35mph and central pressure is 1006mb. A plane was out there this afternoon and found it wasn't strong enough (yet) to be a Tropical Storm (TS wind range: 39-73 mph). I'd agree with this because from the satellite images it looks like it's still struggling. Convection, although looking good earlier today, has decreased over the last few hours.
It's visiting the Bahamas (how nice). The NHC have the center of circulation at 22.7N, 75.4W moving NW at 14mph. I agree with the NW movement, but I might have had one too many glasses of wine because that doesn't look quite like the location of the center to me. From satellite images, I think the center is somewhere around 22.8N, 74.9W. This suggests that the forecast track may be to the right (northern edge) of the current cone, which means it's currently heading towards the east coast of Florida. BUT, the forecast from the NHC is that the pressure patterns that are steering this will change (based on models), and it will begin heading WNW tomorrow, bringing it to the southern tip of Florida, the Keys and then into the Gulf eventually - but only as a very weak Tropical Storm. Bear in mind is that this is a weak system, and it's typically harder to forecast the track of weak systems because it's difficult to find the center.
Wind shear died down a bit today, which is what gave this system a chance, but it looks like it might pick up again. Sea surface water temperatures are around 28-29 deg C, but temperatures warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend very deep because the water depth is pretty shallow. I think that if this system is going to pick up any strength it will be when it's close to or over the Florida Current system, but that's a day or two away and it depends on atmospheric conditions at the time.
The other factor that may be contributing towards inhibiting it is Saharan Dust. It's difficult to see in the satellite images because of the all the clouds (go figure!), but there is a lot of dust blowing off Africa at the moment, and extending across the Atlantic. I got this from Gene S. today:
"I have been in Marathon Fla (in my boat) for more than a week due to 25 mph wind out of the east. We have been having one heck of a dust storm since last Friday. visibility has been way down ..and air temp is hot and humid as the dickens. We can smell the dust. Last Sat it was so bad in Stuart, Fla that African dust made the front page of the news paper."
---------
Gulf of Mexico Blob:
This rather large beasty is over the Bay of Campeche, near Mexico. Convection with this system has been very strong - poor Mexico is getting lashings of rain with a dollop of thunder and lightning! Water temperatures are over 29-30 deg C here and wind shear is weak. The circulation is as strong in the lower half of the troposphere as that in the TD, so I would have thought this was also a TD by now. It is close to Mexico, so there's a chance it will make landfall without getting to that status.
---------
That's all for today folks. Oh, my cat would like to add: 'mggggreee333eeezz'. I think it means 'stop writing and give me some food before I fall asleep'. ;-)
Until tomorrow amigos!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Western Atlantic Blobette: July 21, Update A
This blobette is having a bit of an identity crisis today and isn't looking quite so bonnie anymore. ;-) (puns always intended). As I thought, the wind shear and proximity to the islands of PR & Hispaniola took their toll and the NHC said the same thing this afternoon when they downgraded the percentage of formation from 70% to 60%.
The blobette still has some lower level circulation centered just north of Haiti and near the southern end of the Bahamas. But because of that wind shear, the convection is to the east and south - stretching from the Dominican Republic to the Windward Islands and including the Virgin Islands. I got this from Tom J. in St. Thomas yesterday afternoon: "we have had plenty of rain and very heavy at times...like today. had to pump down the pool level twice today. expecting more flooding rain tonight and hope the following mosquitos are gentle...there will be millions after a rain like this. this system has vollyed north and south over us since Saturday...will it ever leave?? Still pouring with plenty of lightning and thunder...4pm and it looks like 8pm at night.....weird." I think they finally saw the sun today. For about 5 minutes anyway.
Although this system is all over the place, it still has some pretty good low level circulation which means there's a small chance it could re-develop if it moves away from the bigger islands of Hispaniola and Cuba - but I'm not yet convinced that will happen. Also, although water temperatures are in the 29-30 deg C range, the wind shear is still looking strong. I (along with many others) will be keeping an eye on it, just in case it does something sneaky. For now, it's still a blobette that's trying really hard to be a grown-up storm (or at least a Tropical Depression!).
Until tomorrow!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
The blobette still has some lower level circulation centered just north of Haiti and near the southern end of the Bahamas. But because of that wind shear, the convection is to the east and south - stretching from the Dominican Republic to the Windward Islands and including the Virgin Islands. I got this from Tom J. in St. Thomas yesterday afternoon: "we have had plenty of rain and very heavy at times...like today. had to pump down the pool level twice today. expecting more flooding rain tonight and hope the following mosquitos are gentle...there will be millions after a rain like this. this system has vollyed north and south over us since Saturday...will it ever leave?? Still pouring with plenty of lightning and thunder...4pm and it looks like 8pm at night.....weird." I think they finally saw the sun today. For about 5 minutes anyway.
Although this system is all over the place, it still has some pretty good low level circulation which means there's a small chance it could re-develop if it moves away from the bigger islands of Hispaniola and Cuba - but I'm not yet convinced that will happen. Also, although water temperatures are in the 29-30 deg C range, the wind shear is still looking strong. I (along with many others) will be keeping an eye on it, just in case it does something sneaky. For now, it's still a blobette that's trying really hard to be a grown-up storm (or at least a Tropical Depression!).
Until tomorrow!
Toodles,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Western Atlantic Blobette: July 20, Update A
Another bonnie attempt at forming Tropical Storm Bonnie is in the works right now. (I spent entire *seconds* thinking of that sentence - does it show? ;-))
This blobette is just north of Puerto Rico (PR) and appeared on my radar over the weekend. It brought some wellie-wearing weather to the Virgin Islands on Sunday - "our man on the ground", Tom J., in St. Thomas said they had horizontal rain on Sunday and it looks like they are still getting squally weather - third day in a row! Hope you have extra rain gear!
Waay back then it didn't really have much circulation, but that was a whole two days ago. It's really picked up since then and, in addition to the convection (heavy rain and thunderstorms) it now has some pretty good circulation (vorticity) in the lowest levels of the troposphere.
It's a bit too soon to say, but I'm not sure if this will become a big storm. It is certainly over waters warm enough to sustain a storm (surface temperatures are 28-30 deg C) and waters of 26.5 deg C+ can be found in the upper 50-75 m of the ocean. But it is close to the PR and Hispaniola islands and there is some pretty decent wind shear to the northern edge of this blobette, both factors which will slow down development. As usual, how much this develops very much depends on the track. If it stays over water then there's every chance of it getting stronger.
About the track. The NHC says it's moving WNW at 10mph and will do so for the next day or so. I'd agree with that. The good news is that it will be closer to Hispaniola, which will inhibit development. The bad news is that I expect Haiti will get a lot of rain, which usually results in landslides and they don't need that.
This is one to keep an eye on - there's a small chance it may end up in the eastern Gulf. Next update when something interesting happens (to the blobette... not to me!). ;-)
Ciao,
J.
------------------------------------------
To New Readers: I'm sorry. Are you sure you don't want to watch reality tv instead? There's probably a really good one out there about watching grass grow or something. No? Well, I hope you've been suitably warned. If you have any questions about my fancy-schmancy scientific terminology (oo-aaah :-) ) or anything else about storms or whatever else I mention, please let me know. I like reading your questions ... and sometimes I've even been known to answer them! ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
This blobette is just north of Puerto Rico (PR) and appeared on my radar over the weekend. It brought some wellie-wearing weather to the Virgin Islands on Sunday - "our man on the ground", Tom J., in St. Thomas said they had horizontal rain on Sunday and it looks like they are still getting squally weather - third day in a row! Hope you have extra rain gear!
Waay back then it didn't really have much circulation, but that was a whole two days ago. It's really picked up since then and, in addition to the convection (heavy rain and thunderstorms) it now has some pretty good circulation (vorticity) in the lowest levels of the troposphere.
It's a bit too soon to say, but I'm not sure if this will become a big storm. It is certainly over waters warm enough to sustain a storm (surface temperatures are 28-30 deg C) and waters of 26.5 deg C+ can be found in the upper 50-75 m of the ocean. But it is close to the PR and Hispaniola islands and there is some pretty decent wind shear to the northern edge of this blobette, both factors which will slow down development. As usual, how much this develops very much depends on the track. If it stays over water then there's every chance of it getting stronger.
About the track. The NHC says it's moving WNW at 10mph and will do so for the next day or so. I'd agree with that. The good news is that it will be closer to Hispaniola, which will inhibit development. The bad news is that I expect Haiti will get a lot of rain, which usually results in landslides and they don't need that.
This is one to keep an eye on - there's a small chance it may end up in the eastern Gulf. Next update when something interesting happens (to the blobette... not to me!). ;-)
Ciao,
J.
------------------------------------------
To New Readers: I'm sorry. Are you sure you don't want to watch reality tv instead? There's probably a really good one out there about watching grass grow or something. No? Well, I hope you've been suitably warned. If you have any questions about my fancy-schmancy scientific terminology (oo-aaah :-) ) or anything else about storms or whatever else I mention, please let me know. I like reading your questions ... and sometimes I've even been known to answer them! ;-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and was going to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Caribbean Blobette: July 4, Update A
Happy 4th of July! As a special treat for you a blobette has been developing in the Caribbean. Isn't that nice? ;-) ('Blobette': my "technical term" for a collection of clouds and thunderstorms that may develop into a (she-name) tropical storm.)
I mention it because it's in the same area that the blob-that-became-Alex really began to kick up a fuss and there is some decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (lowest level of our atmosphere, more details here: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/06/caribbean-blob-june-25-update.html). At this location the water temperature is over 29 deg C, with a very deep layer of warm water (greater than 26.5 deg C) in the upper 100-125m of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical storms need water warmer than 26.5 deg C to develop, so ocean conditions are certainly ripe for further development. There is a little bit of wind shear in the atmosphere, which I think is the only thing keeping this as a blobette for now. It's moving WNW at about 15mph, towards the Yucatan Peninsula region.
I'll be keeping an eye on this one. The next name is Bonnie. Another update only if this blobette develops further.
An appropriate quote for today is by Abraham Lincoln:
"we, your forefathers, were brought forth upon a most excellent adventure conceived by our new friends, Bill... and Ted. These two great gentlemen are dedicated to a proposition which was true in my time, just as it's true today. Be excellent to each other. And... PARTY ON, DUDES!"
(from the classic documentary, 'Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure' ;-) ).
Have fun!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I mention it because it's in the same area that the blob-that-became-Alex really began to kick up a fuss and there is some decent circulation in the lower half of the troposphere (lowest level of our atmosphere, more details here: http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/2010/06/caribbean-blob-june-25-update.html). At this location the water temperature is over 29 deg C, with a very deep layer of warm water (greater than 26.5 deg C) in the upper 100-125m of the Caribbean Sea. Tropical storms need water warmer than 26.5 deg C to develop, so ocean conditions are certainly ripe for further development. There is a little bit of wind shear in the atmosphere, which I think is the only thing keeping this as a blobette for now. It's moving WNW at about 15mph, towards the Yucatan Peninsula region.
I'll be keeping an eye on this one. The next name is Bonnie. Another update only if this blobette develops further.
An appropriate quote for today is by Abraham Lincoln:
"we, your forefathers, were brought forth upon a most excellent adventure conceived by our new friends, Bill... and Ted. These two great gentlemen are dedicated to a proposition which was true in my time, just as it's true today. Be excellent to each other. And... PARTY ON, DUDES!"
(from the classic documentary, 'Bill & Ted's Excellent Adventure' ;-) ).
Have fun!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Thursday, July 01, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex: July 1, Update A
Great googliemooglies! That'll teach me to go galavanting around during hurricane seasaon and neglect the storm. Alex sneakily went up to a cat 2 just before landfall, with a beautiful eye and everything. Boys. Huh. They never behave! ;-) (you know I'll say the opposite later in the season, don't you?)
Alex is now back down to being a Tropical Storm, but I agree with the NHC that he was a cat 2 with a central pressure of 947mb at landfall in Mexico around 9pm CDT yesterday evening. According to the NHC, his winds were 105 mph, making him a pretty decent strength cat 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph).
He is currently over central Mexico, somewhere around 22.4N, 102W, moving WSW at around 13mph. The minimum pressure is now at least 990mb, and rising, and winds are barely Tropical Storm force at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Despite the low wind speed he has quite a bit of convection, and for a storm that's so far inland he still has A Lot of circulation in the atmosphere (which is interesting in a "hmm... that's interesting" sort of way).
Next time I decide to be away from a computer for a few days, I'll make sure Mother Nature knows so she can form another storm. This is my last entry on Alex... unless he makes the crossing into the Pacific! (highly unlikely, but he IS a bit stubborn).
Until next time, ciao for now! :-)
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Alex is now back down to being a Tropical Storm, but I agree with the NHC that he was a cat 2 with a central pressure of 947mb at landfall in Mexico around 9pm CDT yesterday evening. According to the NHC, his winds were 105 mph, making him a pretty decent strength cat 2 (cat 2 range: 96-110mph).
He is currently over central Mexico, somewhere around 22.4N, 102W, moving WSW at around 13mph. The minimum pressure is now at least 990mb, and rising, and winds are barely Tropical Storm force at 40mph (TS range: 39-73mph). Despite the low wind speed he has quite a bit of convection, and for a storm that's so far inland he still has A Lot of circulation in the atmosphere (which is interesting in a "hmm... that's interesting" sort of way).
Next time I decide to be away from a computer for a few days, I'll make sure Mother Nature knows so she can form another storm. This is my last entry on Alex... unless he makes the crossing into the Pacific! (highly unlikely, but he IS a bit stubborn).
Until next time, ciao for now! :-)
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Hurricane Alex: June 30, Update A
As expected, he's a cat 1 hurricane, with winds of about 85-90 mph (cat 1: 74-95mph), central pressure 962mb, located somewhere around 24.5N, 96.2W. He's approaching the Mexican coastline (with outer bands over southern Texas) and will make landfall overnight. I don't think he'll become a cat 2, as it looks like he is beginning to weaken as he interacts with land - the convective activity is decreasing in the outer bands. He is tracking north of the current official forecast (and barely within the cone), which takes him closer to Texas, but I think it's still going to be a Mexico landfall. Hopefully the impact will be minimal!
I know, I said today's entry would be long and boring. Surprise! It's short and boring instead. ;-) That's because I fell asleep on the job! But he's moving along more-or-less as forecast since yesterday, so nothing to add really.
Until tomorrow amigos,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I know, I said today's entry would be long and boring. Surprise! It's short and boring instead. ;-) That's because I fell asleep on the job! But he's moving along more-or-less as forecast since yesterday, so nothing to add really.
Until tomorrow amigos,
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex: June 29, Update A
Just a quick note... Tropical Storm Alex is currently centered somewhere around 21.7N, 91.9W with winds near 70mph, making him a strong Tropical Storm. Central pressure is 984mb, moving NNW at 8mph. He'll become a hurricane soon (cat 1: 74-95mph). He slowed down yesterday, which always makes things (track and intensity forecasting) tricky - I'll go into why at a later date. It still looks like a Mexico landfall, with a small chance of southern Texas. I was wrong about the southern track, alas, but correct about the slower increase in intensity. The circulation is pretty good throughout the troposphere, which means that he will intensify further. Bother.
His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.
I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)
Toodle pip,
J.
p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
His circulation is now strong again throughout the troposphere (it weakened a little yesterday), and there is low wind shear. Because he took a more northerly track, he is over warm and slightly deeper warm water. All conditions point to intensification.
I don't have time to look at all the data or write more today. Tomorrow I'll have oodles of time though, so be prepared for a long and boring entry! ;-)
Toodle pip,
J.
p.s. congratulations to C.H. (who helps me maintain the web blog) and his wife on the birth of his daughter yesterday! :-)
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, June 27, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex: June 27, Update A
I made the mistake of watching some US tv news about tropical storms. Oh dear. "Tropical Storm Alex MAY be weakening over land"? OF COURSE it's weakening! Sigh. Why do they have to be so unecessarily alarmist? Doesn't everyone have enough to worry about? (rhetorical questions, no need to reply! :-)). Time for a calming cup of tea!
TS Alex made landfall yesterday in Belize, between 7 and 8pm (CDT) with winds near 65mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). A fairly strong Tropical Storm. He is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula in a WNW direction at 10mph, and will re-emerge into the south-western Gulf later today. Currently he is centered at around 18.4N, 89.9W over Mexico, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph... which means that he may not actually be Tropical Storm anymore as the demarkation is 39mph. I expect he will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression in the next update, as also previously forecast by the NHC. Despite the low wind speed, he still has very good circulation (vorticity) in the entire troposphere which is a little troublesome.
Now, the question is what will happen when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track takes him WNW towards Mexico. I agree with a Mexico landfall, but maybe not so far north as the current center of cone of uncertainty suggests. There's a chance he'll stay south (also within the cone). But that's a few days away, so things could change.
And the intensity in the Gulf? Here we have a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. How fun! :-) Atmospheric conditions are primed for strengthening of a storm (weak wind shear, strong circulation/vorticity). The forecast makes him a Tropical Storm again overnight tonight (1AM Monday), and a Hurricane tomorrow night (by 1AM Tuesday), with the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 by Thursday - a fairly rapid intensification. However, ocean conditions are not really primed for a big storm... although the surface water temperature is warm at 30 deg C, the warm water is very shallow - waters warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend much below 25 - 50m (because it is going over the shallow Bay of Campeche shelf - like the West Florida Shelf). My assessment is that it will intensify back to a Tropical Storm and there is a possibility that it will become a hurricane, but maybe not as rapidly as the current forecast suggests. I think it unlikely that he will be a Cat 3 before he makes landfall.
I'll try and check in later, once he's over water. I don't have much time and won't be in front of a computer for most of Monday/Tuesday (because life gets in the way at the most inconvenient moments! ;-)). Luckily Alex is pretty well behaved, and unless you are in Mexico or southern Texas, no need to overly worry about this one.
Must run! Ciao for now,
J.
p.s. Oil & Storms:
There are a number places out there with information about oil spill and tropical storms that you should check out if you haven't already (e.g. NOAA's fact sheet:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf). Thanks to all who sent in websites - you guys are great! :-) I'll continue to answer questions because I was asked for my wonderfully humble, scientific and humourous opinion (after people had read what's out there). (Yes, I'm still *quite* modest). ;-)
Also, thanks to J.D. (and someone else, whose email I've misplaced - sorry!) for sending me 'information' on the "Worst Case Scenario": http://xkcd.com/748/ ;-). I'm sure the movie will be out next summer!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
TS Alex made landfall yesterday in Belize, between 7 and 8pm (CDT) with winds near 65mph (TS range: 39-73 mph). A fairly strong Tropical Storm. He is now moving across the Yucatan Peninsula in a WNW direction at 10mph, and will re-emerge into the south-western Gulf later today. Currently he is centered at around 18.4N, 89.9W over Mexico, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 40mph... which means that he may not actually be Tropical Storm anymore as the demarkation is 39mph. I expect he will be downgraded to a Tropical Depression in the next update, as also previously forecast by the NHC. Despite the low wind speed, he still has very good circulation (vorticity) in the entire troposphere which is a little troublesome.
Now, the question is what will happen when he emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The track takes him WNW towards Mexico. I agree with a Mexico landfall, but maybe not so far north as the current center of cone of uncertainty suggests. There's a chance he'll stay south (also within the cone). But that's a few days away, so things could change.
And the intensity in the Gulf? Here we have a battle between the ocean and atmosphere. How fun! :-) Atmospheric conditions are primed for strengthening of a storm (weak wind shear, strong circulation/vorticity). The forecast makes him a Tropical Storm again overnight tonight (1AM Monday), and a Hurricane tomorrow night (by 1AM Tuesday), with the possibility of a Cat 2 or 3 by Thursday - a fairly rapid intensification. However, ocean conditions are not really primed for a big storm... although the surface water temperature is warm at 30 deg C, the warm water is very shallow - waters warmer than 26.5 deg C don't extend much below 25 - 50m (because it is going over the shallow Bay of Campeche shelf - like the West Florida Shelf). My assessment is that it will intensify back to a Tropical Storm and there is a possibility that it will become a hurricane, but maybe not as rapidly as the current forecast suggests. I think it unlikely that he will be a Cat 3 before he makes landfall.
I'll try and check in later, once he's over water. I don't have much time and won't be in front of a computer for most of Monday/Tuesday (because life gets in the way at the most inconvenient moments! ;-)). Luckily Alex is pretty well behaved, and unless you are in Mexico or southern Texas, no need to overly worry about this one.
Must run! Ciao for now,
J.
p.s. Oil & Storms:
There are a number places out there with information about oil spill and tropical storms that you should check out if you haven't already (e.g. NOAA's fact sheet:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanes_oil_factsheet.pdf). Thanks to all who sent in websites - you guys are great! :-) I'll continue to answer questions because I was asked for my wonderfully humble, scientific and humourous opinion (after people had read what's out there). (Yes, I'm still *quite* modest). ;-)
Also, thanks to J.D. (and someone else, whose email I've misplaced - sorry!) for sending me 'information' on the "Worst Case Scenario": http://xkcd.com/748/ ;-). I'm sure the movie will be out next summer!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Saturday, June 26, 2010
TD1: June 26, Update A
Formerly known as the Caribbean Blob, this is now officially a weak Tropical Depression which means it has closed circulation and winds of under 39 mph. It is moving WNW at 9mph, with 1004mb central pressure. It's just north of Honduras, centered at 16.7N, 84.4W, and is, indeed, heading for the Yucatan Peninsula where it will make landfall tonight. The NHC think it will reach Tropical Storm strength before then, and retain that intensity as it crosses the landmass and into the Gulf. I have no doubt it will reach Tropical Storm strength (Alex), but I don't think it will survive the crossing so easily. It may even become a weak hurricane before getting to the Yucatan because it is over warm water (26.5 deg C in the upper 80-100m), but on the other hand, it is interacting with the central American landmass to the south, which may inhibit that development.
That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Toodle pip!
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
That's all I have time for on this for now! I'll check in once it's got to the Yucatan Peninsula.
Toodle pip!
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Friday, June 25, 2010
Caribbean Blob: June 25 Update A
I'm a tad busy the next few days, so this is not a good time for a blob to even think about developing! Huh. I'll have a word with Mother Nature and see if I can suspend activity for a week or two. ;-)
I (and others) have been watching this blob over the last few days as it slowly moved across the Caribbean, dumping a bit of rain on assorted islands. It is currently centered somewhere around 16N, 80W, between the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua and Jamaica.
There has been a lot of convection with this system for many days. This is to be expected. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are over 30 deg C (although the eastern Caribbean has dropped by a whopping 1 deg C over the last few days because the blob has cooled things down a little). In addition to warm surface waters, it is now over some very deep warm water -the deepest there is actually. Temperatures are above 26.5 deg C in the upper 125-150m of the water column. If this had been a better developed system, this is the location it would have bloomed into a cat 5! But fortunately for us all, the poor little thing is still struggling to develop ... and in the meantime, it continues to rain and remove some of the heat from the ocean. Yay!
Since the day before yesterday, the lowest levels of the troposphere** (woo hoo...science alert - see below :-)) have begun to show some signs of improved circulation. It's still quite disorganized though. There is some wind shear. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) have been saying since yesterday that the shear will decrease by tomorrow so the system has a high chance of developing. This is possible, but I'm not 100% convinced the shear drop will be enough.
**Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The next layer up is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of it because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and sip pina coladas ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarkation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause.
I'll keep an eye on this blob and write when I can! I'll definitely send another note out on this, once I've looked at possible tracks. My *guess* at the moment is that it'll head W-NW... hopefully to the Yucatan and not into the Gulf!
-----------------
On another somewhat related note, I've been asked a number of storm/oil questions and just haven't had time to write about them (anyone got a spare day or two lying around that I could borrow? ;-)). I had grand plans to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe I'll just address a question here and there.
Question: "If there is a storm in the Gulf, will it rain oil on us?"
Answer: I would say no. The rain is from WATER being evaporated from the ocean. Heat energy is used to separate the water molecules (technically called the latent heat of vaporization), which allows the water to go from being a liquid to being a gas (water vapor). The oil molecules will not react the same way ... if I'm wrong and some expert out there knows definitively that they will be part of that process, please let me know and I'll pass along a correction. (And if I'm right, please let me know because then my head can get bigger ;-) ).
The water vapor is carried up into the atmosphere, where the temperature drops (because it gets colder the higher up you get) and the water molecules recombine (condense) to form clouds and then liquid water again (rain). When they recombine, the heat energy that was used to separate them is released into the atmosphere - this is a source of energy into the storm system.
However, if you live in an area where you get sea spray from storms and there is oil in the water, then you will most likely get oil droplets as well, because that is carried 'mechanically' by the wind and doesn't involve breaking up of molecules or other such sneaky things!
----------------------
Gosh... what a lot of science for a Friday! That should carry you through the weekend. ;-)
More sooner or later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
I (and others) have been watching this blob over the last few days as it slowly moved across the Caribbean, dumping a bit of rain on assorted islands. It is currently centered somewhere around 16N, 80W, between the tip of Honduras/Nicaragua and Jamaica.
There has been a lot of convection with this system for many days. This is to be expected. The sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are over 30 deg C (although the eastern Caribbean has dropped by a whopping 1 deg C over the last few days because the blob has cooled things down a little). In addition to warm surface waters, it is now over some very deep warm water -the deepest there is actually. Temperatures are above 26.5 deg C in the upper 125-150m of the water column. If this had been a better developed system, this is the location it would have bloomed into a cat 5! But fortunately for us all, the poor little thing is still struggling to develop ... and in the meantime, it continues to rain and remove some of the heat from the ocean. Yay!
Since the day before yesterday, the lowest levels of the troposphere** (woo hoo...science alert - see below :-)) have begun to show some signs of improved circulation. It's still quite disorganized though. There is some wind shear. The NHC (National Hurricane Center) have been saying since yesterday that the shear will decrease by tomorrow so the system has a high chance of developing. This is possible, but I'm not 100% convinced the shear drop will be enough.
**Troposphere: this is the name of the lowest level of our atmosphere. It extends up to about 8km height in the polar regions, and 15-16 km in parts of the tropics. In the troposphere, the higher up you go, the colder the temperature gets (e.g. tops of mountains). The next layer up is called the 'Stratosphere'... you might have heard of it because, in the polar regions, that's where the Ozone Hole likes to hang out (and sip pina coladas ;-)). In the stratosphere, the higher up you go, the warmer the temperature gets! Isn't that interesting? The demarkation between the troposphere and stratosphere is called the tropopause.
I'll keep an eye on this blob and write when I can! I'll definitely send another note out on this, once I've looked at possible tracks. My *guess* at the moment is that it'll head W-NW... hopefully to the Yucatan and not into the Gulf!
-----------------
On another somewhat related note, I've been asked a number of storm/oil questions and just haven't had time to write about them (anyone got a spare day or two lying around that I could borrow? ;-)). I had grand plans to do that in a couple of weeks, but maybe I'll just address a question here and there.
Question: "If there is a storm in the Gulf, will it rain oil on us?"
Answer: I would say no. The rain is from WATER being evaporated from the ocean. Heat energy is used to separate the water molecules (technically called the latent heat of vaporization), which allows the water to go from being a liquid to being a gas (water vapor). The oil molecules will not react the same way ... if I'm wrong and some expert out there knows definitively that they will be part of that process, please let me know and I'll pass along a correction. (And if I'm right, please let me know because then my head can get bigger ;-) ).
The water vapor is carried up into the atmosphere, where the temperature drops (because it gets colder the higher up you get) and the water molecules recombine (condense) to form clouds and then liquid water again (rain). When they recombine, the heat energy that was used to separate them is released into the atmosphere - this is a source of energy into the storm system.
However, if you live in an area where you get sea spray from storms and there is oil in the water, then you will most likely get oil droplets as well, because that is carried 'mechanically' by the wind and doesn't involve breaking up of molecules or other such sneaky things!
----------------------
Gosh... what a lot of science for a Friday! That should carry you through the weekend. ;-)
More sooner or later!
J.
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Tuesday, June 15, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 15 Update A
If the season has to be busy, can it please be full of blobs like this? :-) It created a small ruckus and is now just happily twirling away, minding it's own business.
It doesn't have much convection, just some low level circulation. It's centered at about 13N, 45W, heading WNW at 10-15 mph. The water underneath is still warm water (28-29 deg C), but the wind shear continues to pick up and there is still dry air around. I had an email about African Dust today - there is, indeed, a Sarahan Air Layer blowing off Africa, but it's not really in the vicinity of this little blob. To look at African Dust, click here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time (from U. Wisconsin - CIMSS).
I'll keep an eye on it, but I suspect this will be my last entry on this blob. Hurray!! One down... er... 20 something to go? (ha ha ha... no, surely not!)
Until the next time...
(Go England! ;-) )
Toodle pip!
J.
p.s. if you have any questions, let me know!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
It doesn't have much convection, just some low level circulation. It's centered at about 13N, 45W, heading WNW at 10-15 mph. The water underneath is still warm water (28-29 deg C), but the wind shear continues to pick up and there is still dry air around. I had an email about African Dust today - there is, indeed, a Sarahan Air Layer blowing off Africa, but it's not really in the vicinity of this little blob. To look at African Dust, click here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/salmain.php?&prod=splitEW&time (from U. Wisconsin - CIMSS).
I'll keep an eye on it, but I suspect this will be my last entry on this blob. Hurray!! One down... er... 20 something to go? (ha ha ha... no, surely not!)
Until the next time...
(Go England! ;-) )
Toodle pip!
J.
p.s. if you have any questions, let me know!
Blog archives at http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Monday, June 14, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 14 Update A
"Bit of a busy day today, I'm afraid. Distressingly little time for sloth or idleness." (Oscar Wilde) :-)
So, fortunately for me, there's not much to say about this Atlantic blob ... other than it looks a little worse for wear today than it did yesterday. Even though it's over warm waters (in the 28-29 deg C range), the circulation and convection has definitely decreased this evening. This might be because the wind shear started to pick up (a fraction) and there continues to be dry air all around. From satellite images, it looks like it is heading in a north-westward direction and the center is somewhere near 11N, 42W.
However, it is still trying to develop (pesky little blob!) and I will continue to keep an eye on it. I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a nice day! (as they say in America ;-) ).
Ciao for now,
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So, fortunately for me, there's not much to say about this Atlantic blob ... other than it looks a little worse for wear today than it did yesterday. Even though it's over warm waters (in the 28-29 deg C range), the circulation and convection has definitely decreased this evening. This might be because the wind shear started to pick up (a fraction) and there continues to be dry air all around. From satellite images, it looks like it is heading in a north-westward direction and the center is somewhere near 11N, 42W.
However, it is still trying to develop (pesky little blob!) and I will continue to keep an eye on it. I'll be back with an update tomorrow.
Have a nice day! (as they say in America ;-) ).
Ciao for now,
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Atlantic Blob: June 13 Update A
"Here we go, here we go, here we go"... a classic football (soccer) chant in honour of the World Cup (topical AND tropical - aren't you impressed? ;-)).
So, the first real blob (technical term for a blob of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather ;-)) of the season is out there. Not a terribly big surprise as we are a couple of weeks into the Hurricane Season. I've heard and read a number of comparisons to the start of the 2005 season, which also had rather warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in May and June. The first Tropical Storm of that year, Arlene, ended on June 13... so Mother Nature is already having an easy year by comparison (if you ignore the oil spill, volcanic eruptions, assorted earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and unusually cold winter).
This blob is a sprawling mass of clouds and convection (rainfall), covering about 1000 miles from north to south, and also from east to west. The center, I'm estimating, is somewhere around 7-8N, 36-37W, which puts it quite far south. Although the sea surface temperature is a balmy 30-plus deg C (temperatures of 26.5 deg C and higher are needed to maintain a tropical storm) and wind shear is light, there is dry air to the west and north which will help to keep it in check for a bit. However there is a decent amount of circulation with this system, hinting that it may develop further.
The good news is that I've been watching this blob all day because apparently I have nothing better to do on my weekends. I suppose I could watch the football (yawn - oops, did I say that out loud? ;-)). Anyway, both the circulation and thunderstorm activity have diminished a little since this morning. Not enough to ignore it (yet), but it gives us all an extra day or two to remember what a hurricane looks like so we can recognize one when we see it. The other thing to note about this blob is that it is quite far south (south of 10N), and therefore there's a good possibility that it will stay on a southern track... too soon to say.
I know a lot of people are concerned about the impact of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, given that little oil spill fiasco. I'll try and write an entry on oil and storms soon(ish). But something else that also happened earlier this year was the devastating earthquake in Haiti. I believe they are still a long way from recovering from that, and unfortunately it's on an island that gets hit by a storm almost every year. My fingers are crossed (thus making it difficult for me to type of course ;-)) for any big storms to stay well away from those areas (staying out in the Atlantic is fine with me)!
I'll check in with y'all tomorrow.
Toodle pip! ;-)
J.
P.S. Thanks to everyone who have sent me notes for the last few entries... I've had a busy few weeks and am a little behind on replying, but will get around to them soon!
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
So, the first real blob (technical term for a blob of clouds and rainfall and thundery sort of weather ;-)) of the season is out there. Not a terribly big surprise as we are a couple of weeks into the Hurricane Season. I've heard and read a number of comparisons to the start of the 2005 season, which also had rather warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear in May and June. The first Tropical Storm of that year, Arlene, ended on June 13... so Mother Nature is already having an easy year by comparison (if you ignore the oil spill, volcanic eruptions, assorted earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, and unusually cold winter).
This blob is a sprawling mass of clouds and convection (rainfall), covering about 1000 miles from north to south, and also from east to west. The center, I'm estimating, is somewhere around 7-8N, 36-37W, which puts it quite far south. Although the sea surface temperature is a balmy 30-plus deg C (temperatures of 26.5 deg C and higher are needed to maintain a tropical storm) and wind shear is light, there is dry air to the west and north which will help to keep it in check for a bit. However there is a decent amount of circulation with this system, hinting that it may develop further.
The good news is that I've been watching this blob all day because apparently I have nothing better to do on my weekends. I suppose I could watch the football (yawn - oops, did I say that out loud? ;-)). Anyway, both the circulation and thunderstorm activity have diminished a little since this morning. Not enough to ignore it (yet), but it gives us all an extra day or two to remember what a hurricane looks like so we can recognize one when we see it. The other thing to note about this blob is that it is quite far south (south of 10N), and therefore there's a good possibility that it will stay on a southern track... too soon to say.
I know a lot of people are concerned about the impact of a storm in the Gulf of Mexico, given that little oil spill fiasco. I'll try and write an entry on oil and storms soon(ish). But something else that also happened earlier this year was the devastating earthquake in Haiti. I believe they are still a long way from recovering from that, and unfortunately it's on an island that gets hit by a storm almost every year. My fingers are crossed (thus making it difficult for me to type of course ;-)) for any big storms to stay well away from those areas (staying out in the Atlantic is fine with me)!
I'll check in with y'all tomorrow.
Toodle pip! ;-)
J.
P.S. Thanks to everyone who have sent me notes for the last few entries... I've had a busy few weeks and am a little behind on replying, but will get around to them soon!
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
Tuesday, June 01, 2010
June 1: Start of the 2010 Hurricane Season
Hello my friends!
Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)
Well, here we are at the Official Start of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season... in which there will be a hundred and six tropical storms, seventy hurricanes, and fifty-four major hurricanes. ;-)
Having spoken with some of you and with some people who don't read this blog (I, too, was surprised such people exist!! ;-) ) it seems there's a fair bit of anxiety about this season already... and we're only on DAY 1! The predictions are, indeed, for an active season:
Klotzbach/Gray (Colorado State University, prediction date April 7): 15 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major
NOAA (prediction date May 27): 14-23 storms, 8-14 hurricanes, 3-7 major
But 2003 was an active season with 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major (major hurricanes are cat 3 or higher), with most of the real activity staying in the Atlantic. On the other hand, 1992 was a very quiet year with only 7 storms, 4 hurricanes, 1 major... quiet for anyone not in the path of Hurricane Andrew that is. It only takes one, regardless of how busy the seasonal forecast indicates. But of course be prepared as usual. In case you don't know what you need, here's my checklist: ice cream, wine, sunscreen lotion, more ice cream, water, a good book, wine, video camera and batteries for cool footage you can sell to tv later... ;-).
If you've been reading this for years, you can ignore the next bit if you like. But if you are reading my wonderful writing for the first time ... a brief background on these updates:
1. These updates are about fun, forecasting, and education... and tropical storms (and whatever else pops into my head that more-or-less fits those three words). It is just what I think.
2. I have a British sense of humoUr... you have been warned.
3. This is my hobby - sometimes you'll get one update a day, sometimes four. If you are really lucky, you won't get any. If you wish to pay me to write, let me know and I'll send out updates as frequently as you like.
4. I have a British sense of humoUr... I hope you like Monty Python, Eddie Izzard, Douglas Adams etc
5. If you have any questions (preferably about tropical storms), please do not hesitate to ask. I will be happy to make up the answers for you. ;-) I can cut and paste from previous entries as well as the next person, so if I say something or use some "scientific jargon" (ooh ahh), please please ask me about it.
6. I have a British sense of humoUr... I often write tongue-in-cheek, which sometimes hurts my cheek but what can you do? Gentle sarcasm, irony, and puns are all acceptable forms of communication. Unfortunately they don't always translate in writing so please don't be offended - like Planet Earth, I'm "Mostly Harmless" (Douglas Adams). Have a piece of chocolate or a drink instead.
7. I'm sure every cloud in the Atlantic is exciting to some, but I'll just be writing about those that I think have a chance of developing.
8. If you are reading this on the web blog and would like to sign up to get email updates instead go here...
http://seas.marine.usf.edu/mailman/listinfo/jyo_hurricane.
9. If you are reading this via email, are sick of me cluttering up your in-boxes, and would prefer to get it via the web go here... http://jyotikastorms.blogspot.com (and send me an email telling me to
remove you).
10. I am not always right. But then neither is anyone else. Forecasting is complicated. Sometimes the crystal ball gets smudges and you are all out of Windex to clean it and the store is closed. So PLEASE pay attention to the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service and your Emergency Managers - especially when a storm is looming because they have the most up-to-date information!!
11. I have a British sense of humoUr and spell things in a British way (sometimes) ... so I moved to Britain last year and no longer live in sunny Florida. I'll do my best to write entries when there's a storm out there, but occasionally that "big ball of wibbly-wobbly timey-wimey stuff" (Dr. Who) gets in the way.
The first three storm names will be Alex, Bonnie, and Colin. I'll be back in touch when Alex shows up.
That's it for now folks. :-)
J.
J.
-------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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Monday, May 31, 2010
Tropical Storm Agatha: May 31, 2010 - a potential Pacific Interloper!
Beep beep beep, the sirens have gone off: we have a Pacific interloper in the Caribbean! I don't think this one counts for Atlantic storms (yet), but I'll mention it anyway.
A system looks like it might be re-developing just off the coast of Belize, in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Agatha was the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, lasted for about 12 hours, hit Guatamala yesterday(ish) and resulted in numerous deaths (from heavy rains etc).
The Guatamalans have had a busy week as far as natural disasters. The Pacaya Volcano erupted on May 27 covering the capital, Guatamala City, with something like 8cm of ash, resulting in some loss of life, and shutting down airspace. Also, whilst I'm rambling about rumblings, less than a day later the Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador also erupted, spewing out rocks and ash and stuff (that's technical jargon for er... stuff). Both have calmed down a bit now (I think). Back to tropical storms (these other pesky natural disasters just keep getting in the way!).
So, Tropical Storm Agatha - although there is some circulation, she doesn't look too healthy because the whole system is still interacting with the central American landmass. But there is considerable convection developing over the portion of the system that is over the rather warm (30 deg C and higher) Caribbean waters.
Storms that cross from one basin to another are called... (drum-roll please)... "crossover storms" (are you surprised? ;-)). There have been about 8 or 9 that have sneaked into the Atlantic from the Eastern Pacific, and 12 or so from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific (the most recent in 2008). Those numbers aren't definite because many of them were before we had good observations. If a storm retains it's structure as it crosses, it keeps its name. But if it falls apart during the crossing and then re-develops in the other basin, it gets re-named to the next storm in the new basin.
I won't mention Agatha again unless she decides she wants to completely cross-over and become Alex (first name for the Atlantic system). :-)
I'll send out a proper 'welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season' message tomorrow. It might be entertaining. It might not. ;-)
Hasta Manana!
J.
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and planning to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
A system looks like it might be re-developing just off the coast of Belize, in the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Agatha was the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, lasted for about 12 hours, hit Guatamala yesterday(ish) and resulted in numerous deaths (from heavy rains etc).
The Guatamalans have had a busy week as far as natural disasters. The Pacaya Volcano erupted on May 27 covering the capital, Guatamala City, with something like 8cm of ash, resulting in some loss of life, and shutting down airspace. Also, whilst I'm rambling about rumblings, less than a day later the Tungurahua Volcano in Ecuador also erupted, spewing out rocks and ash and stuff (that's technical jargon for er... stuff). Both have calmed down a bit now (I think). Back to tropical storms (these other pesky natural disasters just keep getting in the way!).
So, Tropical Storm Agatha - although there is some circulation, she doesn't look too healthy because the whole system is still interacting with the central American landmass. But there is considerable convection developing over the portion of the system that is over the rather warm (30 deg C and higher) Caribbean waters.
Storms that cross from one basin to another are called... (drum-roll please)... "crossover storms" (are you surprised? ;-)). There have been about 8 or 9 that have sneaked into the Atlantic from the Eastern Pacific, and 12 or so from the Atlantic to the Eastern Pacific (the most recent in 2008). Those numbers aren't definite because many of them were before we had good observations. If a storm retains it's structure as it crosses, it keeps its name. But if it falls apart during the crossing and then re-develops in the other basin, it gets re-named to the next storm in the new basin.
I won't mention Agatha again unless she decides she wants to completely cross-over and become Alex (first name for the Atlantic system). :-)
I'll send out a proper 'welcome to the Atlantic Hurricane Season' message tomorrow. It might be entertaining. It might not. ;-)
Hasta Manana!
J.
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I was there and planning to "run away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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