Hurricane Bertha, the Blob and Blobette: July 18 Update B

Have you ever had one of those nightmares that just keeps on going and
going and going...? I'm just asking for no particular reason. You know.
Nothing to do with Bertha at all. Certainly nothing at all whatsoever to
do with her becoming a hurricane AGAIN.

Hurricane Bertha:
Yes, she intensified a bit (just a bit though) since the last message. I
know, I said it was unlikely she would intensify too much because she
was passing over colder waters. Silly me. A part of her (to the south)
is still interacting with warmer waters of 26-27 deg C. This morning she
had winds of 65 mph and now her winds are near 75 mph (cat 1 hurricane
range: 74-95 mph), central pressure 989 mb. So she is barely a
hurricane, and the only reason I agree with her upgrade is because she
has a big, somewhat cloudy, eye and looks like a hurricane. There is not
a lot of strong convection in this system and she's been in a low wind
shear environment. It looks like she's heading into higher wind shear,
which combined with the cooler temperatures should bring her back to TS.
However, she is now at 37.6N, 50.6W, moving NE (or NNE) at 22mph. Once
she's completely over cold waters she will become an extratropical
system as opposed to a tropical system, so she may still be quite windy
for a few more days.

For those who asked, the research vessel that's out there in the
Atlantic is 168 ft in length, 33 ft wide. Not too bad. Not too great
either. Well, at least they had an adventure ("always look on the bright
side of life, de-du, de-du, de-du de-du de-du" - Monty Python :) ).

The Blob:
The hurricane plane went to investigate this mass of clouds in the
Caribbean this afternoon and came back with reports of no closed
circulation. Now that I have all my usual data back, I can see that
there is some circulation but it is confined to the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This system still has the most convective activity - still
really severe thunderstorms - centered somewhere around 16N, 70-72W.
That mass is definitely heading in a NW direction - I still think it
will be north of the computer model tracks. Water temps are 27-29 deg C.

The Blobette:
This mass of clouds is still hanging mostly off the GA/SC/NC coast. The
convection has decreased a bit this afternoon. It still doesn't look
like too much rain is going to fall on GA and the Carolinas - most will
stay off-shore. It also has low-level circulation, centered somewhere
around 31N 80W, but nothing in the middle or higher levels of the
troposphere (which is the lowest level of our Atmosphere and extends
about 15-16km above the earth's surface in the tropics). Water
temperatures here are about 28-30 deg C.

---
I *just* got an email from the ship: "it's died right off in the last
few hours and is beautiful now. and yes we have the right tea." Ummm...
just to explain that last comment... being British and knowing they had
a rough few days, I suggested they should "have a cup of tea". What else
would I suggest? Thank goodness they have the right sort on board!
(P.G. Tips - there's no other ... hey, I should be get money from the
company for advertising I think. Or at least a few boxes of P.G. Tips tea.).

On that note I think I'll sign off. Have a good evening. Enjoy a cup of
tea ;)
I'll be back tomorrow.
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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