Hurricane Bertha: July 12 Update A

After working hard all week, Bertha is enjoying a relaxing weekend -
just like me :).

She is very slowly drifting northwards at 2mph. Her central pressure is
983mb and she has winds speeds of 80 mph, which still keeps her as a cat
1storm (74-95mph). Even though she is supposed to be over water
temperatures of 27-28 deg C, because she has been almost stationary I'm
sure the water temperatures beneath are a bit cooler by now. In some
images you can see the path she took as she crossed the Atlantic because
the sea surface temperatures in her wake are cooler than the surrounding
waters. So, with what we assume are cooler waters below, it is unlikely
that she will intensify much until she starts moving again and at that
point we'd have to assess what the atmosphere is like as well to figure
out if she will re-intensify at all.

She is now almost at 30N, 62.5W. Wind shear is still low, and the
convection is not very symmetrically distributed. Her cloud tops are
fairly warm in large parts of the storm. The northern edge has the most
convective activity (and cooler cloud tops) at the moment - that is
where she is interacting with the warmer water ahead of her. For a reminder
explanation of cloud tops look at the July 9, update C in the archives.

I hear the Bermuda research cruise departure has been postponed to
Monday morning... right around the time when Bertha will be closest to
the island if she continues as forecast. What are the waves now... 10ft?
That should be oodles of fun.

I won't send out another update today unless there's some change.
Bye for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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