to be Tropical Storm Bertha (39-73mph) in the next NHS advisory, or at
the very most a cat 1 hurricane (74-95mph). In the last ~6 hours, she
has steadily collapsed from being a strong cat 3 storm (111-130mph) with
winds of 120 mph and central pressure of 955mb to a system that does not
have an eye, has poor convective activity and is entraining dry air. She
is still over waters of 26-27 deg C, but has entered a region of higher
wind shear.
She is also going to pass well east of Bermuda - which is what I thought
and it is also in agreement with the computer models. The current center
of the cone will be shifted eastward again. At the last advisory she was
moving to the NW at 10mph - I think she's now moving N-NW.
Once again, the official intensity forecasts are 'a bit off' - they had
her maintaining cat 3 status throughout the day today, dropping to a cat
2 tomorrow. Given her collapse and surrounding atmospheric
environmental conditions I don't see her re-intensifying to a cat 3, and
I expect the NHS to downgrade her quite rapidly in the next couple of
hours. This storm has really demonstrated the amount of work that still
needs to be done in order to get a handle on the intensification of a
tropical storm.
I will send out another update later today. Have a lovely day :)
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------
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