Thursday, July 03, 2008

[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 2: July 3 Update A

Before we start talking tropical weather, let's get the important things
out of the way: welcome to all the new people who have signed up since
my last update (which was about a month ago). If you have any questions
please don't hesitate to send me an email and if you are lucky, I might
even know the answer ;)

Now on to the trivial stuff: I know a few of you have been watching the
'Blob' (a highly technical term I sometimes use) that came off the coast
of Africa about 3-4 days ago. It looked really beautiful for something
that was just developing. Well finally, after days of watching it not do
much other than look pretty, last night it was officially designated
Tropical Depression (TD) 2 by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

TD 2 is at about 12.6N, 22.7W, traveling W-NW at 9mph. Central pressure
as of early this morning was 1008 mb, and wind speeds were at about
35mph (55km/hr). I expect this will probably become a Tropical Storm
(TS) within 24 hours - most likely today (that would be TS Bertha) - TS
winds range from 39-73 mph.

However, even though this system is still way out there, there are some
signs that for the next few days it may not develop too rapidly. It is
in a region of moderate wind shear and although it is currently over
water temperatures of 27-28 deg C the depth of that warm water is really
shallow so it will be churning up colder water not warm water. It is
heading to cooler surface waters of 26-27 deg C, but that's still warm
enough to at least maintain a storm if all other conditions were favorable.

I'll talk about the path it will take in the next update later today.

I hope everyone is prepared for hurricane season - wine, beer,
non-perishable food, water, a good book, some ice cream, pina coladas,
sunscreen, bug spray, swim suit .. oh wait, no, sorry that's the
checklist for a picnic on the beach....

These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.

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