[Jyo_hurricane] TS Bertha: July 5 update A

Bertha is now at 16.6N, 37.3 W and, like many women this weekend, she is
clearly in a rush to get to the Independence Day sales before they end
because she is moving at a very rapid 21 mph in a westward direction...
and that, my friends, is the slightly troubling aspect of this storm - the
westward direction. The high pressure system is holding firm and does
extend across the Atlantic now, so there is a chance that she could clip
the northeastern Caribbean. The point where she will make that
north-west/north/north-east curve out into the Atlantic is not very clear
at the moment.

The good news is that there has not been a change in intensity since
yesterday - winds are just below 50mph and central pressure is 1000mb. She
is still moving over cool water temperatures of 25-26 deg C but if she
maintains her fast movement she will be entering waters of 26-27 deg C in
about 20 hours.

In the atmosphere, there is dry air to her north, west, and south, which
is also preventing her from blossoming. However, the wind shear is not as
strong now and won't be for at least another day.

The path she takes in the next few days will determine her intensity.

I'll send out another update later, so stay tuned... unless you are at the
shops ;).
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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