Hurricane Bertha: July 9 Update B

Bertha is getting Bigger. Again. Deja vu anyone?

In the 11am advisory, about 2 hours ago the NHS kept Bertha as a cat 1
storm (which I agree with) with about 75mph winds (which I disagree with
- I think they were stronger, even back then) and a central pressure of
987mb.

Intensity: She is intensifying again and an eye has formed. She may even
become a cat 2 by the end of today because she is back to being
Beautiful Bertha. There's a chance for a cat 3 too, but that sort of
very rapid intensification is currently difficult to predict. She is
over 27-28 deg waters in a low wind shear environment (other than to her
north-east) and is not only growing in intensity, but also in size
despite the dry air surrounding her.

Track: She is now officially heading in a W-NW direction at 12 mph and
is located at around 24.5N, 58W so she is ~700 miles SE of Bermuda. It
is a little tricky to judge, but they may have shifted the track a
little to the west - the next advisory at 5pm will be a bit clearer I
think. We really are looking for her to resume that NW motion, and then
N-NW so she stays east of Bermuda.

Both the track and intensity forecasts are now a little dodgy after the
next day or two - the models are not quite as tightly confined as they
have been so far. I am not too surprised by this.

For those following what's going on there from my previous entry - the
research cruise has now been pushed back to Sunday morning. Currently
the forecast is for Bertha will be in the vicinity Sat/Sun...

I'll send out another update later, after the 5pm advisory.
J.

P.S. For those of you looking at the blog on the website, thanks for
complaining about the format of the text (AA) ;). Coincidently, my
wonderful web-guru and pal, CH, decided he needed to take action as well
because otherwise I'd never get anywhere. So I am hoping this entry will
look much nicer than all the rest. I've also added some
hurricane-related links to the site now. And one day, I may even be bold
enough to add an image! (I can hear your collective gasps of amazement
you know) - but let's not rush into this fancy-schmancy technology too
quickly hey? :)

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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