[Jyo_hurricane] TS Bertha: July 6 update A

As expected, there has been little change in TS Bertha: winds of ~50mph,
central pressure of 1000mb, still moving in a general westward direction
at 21 mph. Thankfully Boring Bertha and let's hope she stays that way (by
the way, I may not be politically correct but that is not a commentary on
any person called Bertha!). :)

Her current location is around 18N, 46W - she is not very well defined so
it is difficult to identify her center of circulation. I think she's a
little north of where the NHC would place her, and it looks like she will
continue westward for another day but the NHC/models predict a
northwestward motion sooner than that (which would be good).

There is still dry air to the north, south and west of her and she is now
entering a region of moderate-to-strong wind shear for something her size
- so the atmospheric conditions are not conducive to much growth. On the
other hand, the ocean conditions are becoming favorable - she is over
water temperatures of 26 deg C, and heading towards temps of 27 deg C. I
think there will be a little strengthening, but not too much. The NHC
forecasts that she will reach hurricane strength by Tuesday morning. Given
her current trajectory, I am not convinced about this yet. Unless the
atmospheric conditions change I think she may remain a TS for the next few
days.

If anything changes I'll send out another update today, otherwise tomorrow
it is. Enjoy your sunday and I'm sure you are all looking forward to going
back to work tomorrow after this lovely long weekend... :)

A bientot,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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