TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 21 Update B

Quick evening update:

TS Cristobal:
He's steadily degraded this afternoon/evening and hardly has any rain
-just a mass of windy cloudy sort of weather. Like a lovely British summer
day ;) He is moving ENE at 16mph, and although his winds at the 11pm
advisory were still 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph) I am not sure if he will
survive another day as a TS. I think they must have moved his official
center at some point during the day, because it is now within the area of
cloudiness. Unless something "interesting" happens, I expect I will be
stopping updates on him tomorrow.

TS Dolly:
She did not intensify much today as I thought she would. So it seems as
though the shallow warm waters took their toll because all other factors
seemed to be favorable. Of course, those who are paying attention know
that there is something else at play in the intensity forecasts that we
don't have a good understanding of. I will say that the NHC and models
called this correctly as not intensifying to a hurricane until tomorrow.
We'll see what happens then.

The intensity of her convection has steadily decreased during the day, but
the areal extent of her cloudiness has spread and now encompasses a large
area of the Gulf. Some of the outer clouds are already over land
(Texas/Mexico, and even other parts around the Gulf). So I will be very
interested to see if she does intensify tomorrow as forecast.

Her forecast track is pretty good - somewhere around the Texas/Mexico
border. At the moment, I would still say Mexico for landfall, but that's
just me (and a few models). She is moving west at 17 mph, as we expected,
although it looks like she's about to resume her W-NW motion. Max. winds
are 50 mph, central pressure 999mb and she's around 23.1N, 92.8W.
Circulation is still good in the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere.

Another lovely day in Paradise comes to a close.
Night night.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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