She's behaving as predicted - can you believe it? Our rebellious little
storm is growing up. Aww. Or perhaps it could be that the track was
easier to forecast in the last couple of days? Hmm.... She's at 34.2N,
58.4W and has done her little SE wiggle and is now moving E-SE at 9mph,
which will shortly become Eastward and then NE as she continues to move
clockwise around the high (and counterclockwise around a Low to her
north). She's still a decent sized system with good circulation and
winds of 60mph (TS: 39-73mph) and central pressure of 997mb. Part of the
reason for her strength is that eastern side is still over warm water -
she's cooled the waters she passed over to her west. So for now she's
over water temperatures of 26-27 deg C, but will eventually clip
temperatures of 28-29 deg C which will keep her convective activity
going - at least on the eastern side of the system.
The NHC has put out a note to say if she survives as a tropical storm
into the weekend, she will be amongst the top 10 longest-lived storms
for which they have an accurate history. This doesn't mean much other
than an interesting little factoid. Bertha's got a lot of interesting
little factoids that I've already mentioned, such as becoming a
hurricane on July 7 this year, the same date that a previous Bertha in
1996 became a hurricane.
The Blob:
This is the mass of convection that was hanging out over the southern
windward islands yesterday - it's moved into the southern Caribbean. It
still has good circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere and
there is some strong convective activity, but it is skimming the
northern end of the S. America landmass. At the moment there is a high
pressure system that covers the northern Caribbean, so this system will
continue moving pretty much in a westward direction (clockwise around
that high) and not come too far north. As you know, those fields may
change so I'll be keeping an eye on it. It's currently somewhere in the
12.3-13N, 65W area.
The Blobette:
This was the mass of convection that was loitering (suspiciously :) )
over Florida yesterday. It started in the Gulf of Mexico, but the actual
center of circulation was over central Florida. Well, there is still
decent circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere, centered along
the NE Florida coast (and heading northeastward), but there is not too
much convection associated with this system at the moment - the rain
fell out over Florida yesterday. It is picking up some stuff from the
Gulf Stream but nothing major, and it still is very much interacting
with land. I'll keep an eye on this too.
The "other Blob":
This is also marked on the NHC site as an area of potential development
but it is close to central America so it may not amount to much on this
side of that land-mass. However if it moves quickly, it may be yet
another storm in the Pacific (they are on their 6th named storm so far).
It has some lovely convection - big thunderstorms - and low-level
atmospheric circulation.
That's about all for now. For those who have asked, I would not worry
about any of the above. I am not sure I like the new NHC front page
which marks these areas in 'danger' colours before they even become a
tropical depression. The good thing about all of this is that the
greater the convective activity (sans organization) we see, the more
heat is being transferred from the tropical ocean to the atmosphere and
then over land or northwards - and really, the purpose of Tropical
Storms are to move heat from the tropics to the extra-tropics. A
necessary element for our climate.
Toodles for now,
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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