TS Bertha:
She's slowly degrading and no longer has an eye. Located at 45.7N, 41.8W,
she is racing NE at 24 mph. Winds are 70 mph, so she is still a strong TS
(winds: 39-74mph). Given the colder waters it is unlikely she will get
stronger from this point out.
TS Cristobal:
Formally TD 3, he was named this morning when he had some better
convection. Although there is still some good circulation with this
system, the convection has been decreasing all day and he looks quite
ragged at the moment - he barely looks like a TS actually. He is centered
(according to the NHC) at 33.4N, 77.5W and is moving NE at 6mph. Winds are
45mph, so he is a fairly weak TS. The track takes him close to Cape
Hatteras in less than 24 hours. I think they will send in another plane in
the morning to see what's going on.
The Blob:
There is still some circulation in the lower atmosphere, but it is not
very well organized. It is now just southwest of Jamaica. The convection
is still strong in parts, although that has decreased this evening as
well. The convection is around 80W now, and spread from 15N-23N, so it
extends into Cuba. The high pressure has not eroded northward today, so
this may pass through the Yucutan Channel or clip the Yucatan peninsula,
but at the moment it will stay south of the US. This blob is moving W-NW
at ~15mph. It's not yet a Tropical Depression.
More tomorrow.
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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