to keep this one short and send out a longer note later in the day.
TS Bertha:
She's located at 36.6N, 60.7W and has slowed down to 3mph, heading in a
sort of E-SE direction. The wind shear is kicking in as you can tell if
you look at her satellite images which are elongated. I know that this
has been the longest lasting tropical storm in July since 1916. I
haven't been watching the media, so I don't know what spin they may or
may not be putting on this statement. But it really doesn't mean too
much other than her surrounding environmental conditions were right for
her to develop and stay strong - not much wind shear for example. The
water temperatures are about average for this time of year, not
unusually warm. Water temperatures on her west side are about 25 deg C
and on her east about 27 deg C. The cooler west side waters are because
she has been hovering in that vicinity for a few days now.
The research cruise is still out there - somewhere around 31N, 63-64W.
I'm sure they are all having a wonderful time, enjoying the light
breeze... :)
The Blob:
This is at about 12.5N, 56.5 W and is the one that didn't have much
circulation over the past few days but I said I'd keep an eye on it ...
well it looks like there's some circulation in the area of convection in
the lower levels of the atmosphere as of this morning. The convective
activity really picked up with this last night, but that's partly
because it moved over warmer waters over 28 deg C. There is not much
wind shear at the lower-levels of the atmosphere, but there is at the
higher levels. The large scale pressure field from yesterday shows that
the High Pressure over the Atlantic covers most of the northern
Caribbean (including Jamaica) which means the track of this system (if
it develops) will be to the south - however, that may change. I will get
the overnight pressure maps this afternoon and send out an update. It is
impacting the southern windward islands already, and given the pressure
fields, it won't impact the VIs so you guys are groovy. They plan to
send a plane into the system this afternoon to check it out so I'll
report back after that.
The Blobette (another technical term :) ):
There's an area of convection just off the coast of Tampa/St. Petersburg
(where I am). And yes, my skills in observation do show some dark clouds
overhead when I look out of my window. Wow... I must be a scientist!! ;)
There is a little circulation but is extends across the entire FL
peninsula (E-W) and given the proximity to land it is not too likely to
develop. But having said such rash statements before, I will be keeping
an eye on it... as can anyone who lives in Florida by looking outside.
The troubling part is not so much on the west side of Florida, but the
east side where the really warm Gulf Stream is - that's also an area to
watch out for by everyone one the eastern sea-board. To develop or not,
in either case it looks like some lovely stormy weather here.
Yippeee.... :)
More on all of the above later,
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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