[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Bertha: July 8 Update B

I was disappointed with the NHS forecast earlier today. At 11am they
downgraded Bertha to a cat 2 (winds of 96-110mph) when she was clearly
far less than that by 9.30am this morning with no eye, not very good
convection etc. So for the past six hours she was officially and wrongly
classified as a cat 2, which troubles me. However, the latest 5pm
advisory has her as a cat 1 (winds of 74-95mph), which I agree with.
The NHS acknowledges that their intensity forecasts have been way off.

She is now at 22.7 N, 54.8W and heading NW at 12mph. Maximum winds are
85mph and they forecast continued weakening in the next few hours but
keep her as a cat 1 for the next two days. To me, she looks like she has
intensified slightly since this morning (which is why I agree with their
cat 1 assessment) and she is now back over warmer waters of 27-28 deg C
and is entering a region of lower wind shear. Dry air is still being
entrained into the storm, but she is trying to regain some of her steam
(all puns always intended :) ).

It still looks like she will pass east of Bermuda, but you Bermudians
should still keep an eye out in case something happens that wasn't
forecast - although really, how often does that occur, hey?... umm...
never mind.

I hear that the surf will be wonderful over there soon...(and suddenly
all flights to Bermuda are fully booked). By the way, I had no idea how
many people were surfers on this list. Let me know if you would like me
to introduce you to each other. :)

If there are any major changes I'll send out another update later,
otherwise until tomorrow amigos...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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