[Jyo_hurricane] TS Bertha: July 4 Update A

As expected, there has been little change in the intensity of TS Bertha -
she now has winds of 50mph (TS winds: 39-74 mph). So a low-to-mid-sized
TS.

The good news is that the wind shear has been kicking in since yesterday
and making the storm a little lop-sided with the north-west quadrant
devoid of convection. She is also moving in an area of drier air, and
maybe some of that is getting pulled into the storm (entrained is the
technical jargon). She is moving over colder waters of 25 to 26 deg C,
which is cooler than the temperatures needed to maintain a storm (26.5 deg
C). All these factors will keep her intensity steady or may even decrease
it in the next day or two.

The track is a little more westward than expected because the high
pressure has expanded a little westward - so that is something to keep an
eye on. But her heading is still the same as yesterday: W-NW and she's
moving faster now at a rather quick 18mph. I hope things will be clearer
tomorrow.

She's at 15.5N, 31.6W. It is difficult to see her center because she is
not a very well organized storm, so I will go with the official center -
which the NHS has been shifting a few times over the past day as they got
more information.

I'm only sending out one note today because it's a holiday and not much
has happened really... to the storm anyway... I, on the other hand, had an
adventure with a snake (in my car!!!), and saw an 8ft alligator stalk and
eat a turtle! Why am I living in Florida again??

Hope you all have a great July 4!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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