aaaghhh... I NEED that data (cookie monster-esque person comes out of
her shell).
Deep breath. O.k., I'm back.
So, despite not having a full suite of information at my fingertips, I
am still going to send out a report now, and most definitely one or more
later today because everyone should keep an eye on the Blob and Blobette
I've been talking about for the past couple of days. But first...
... TS Bertha:
She's currently at 36.5N, 52W and speeding along at 18mph in a NE
direction and away from land. She intensified a little bit, which is not
surprising given that she was passing over warmer waters so he current
winds are at 65mph (TS range: 39-73mph). But it's unlikely she will
intensify much more because she's now passing over cooler sea surface
temps of 25-26 deg C. Generally, if all other things were favorable,
water temperatures of 26.5 deg C are needed to really keep a system
going. Consequently the convective activity is slowly decreasing and is
fairly weak at this point. She still has good circulation.
The research cruise are currently experiencing 'nice calm seas' of 8-10
ft... compared to the 'slightly choppy' 16-20ft seas they had yesterday
(by the way guys, how big is your boat??). They changed their science
plan a bit to take advantage of Big Bustling Bertha and have gone
looking for interesting upper water column impacts. I suppose they may
as well get something out of this, other than a weight loss program I mean.
The Blobette:
This is currently centered just off the GA coast. Circulation has
improved and looks to be somewhere around 31.5N, 80.7W, convection has
improved - but only over the eastern side where it's interacting with
the Gulf Stream and water temperatures of 28-30 deg C. The proximity to
land will inhibit too much growth, but the path it looks like it will
take at the moment is still along the east coast - GA, SC and NC,
basically right along the axes of the Gulf Stream. Those who've been
reading this for a couple of days will not be surprised by any of this.
I am not sure if it will create too many storms overland - most of the
convection is offshore and has been for the past day. The NHC issued a
special tropical disturbance statement on this system this morning and
will send in a plane tomorrow to investigate if necessary. It's not yet
officially a TD.
The Blob:
The mass of cloudiness and really strong convection that was skirting
the northern edge of S. America has moved a little more northwards -
because as I said yesterday, the high pressure that was keeping it to
the south is eroding northwards. It is difficult to find the center of
circulation, and without my full set of tools I can't say much about
that yet. The main area of convection is now around 15N, 70W. There are
some very strong thunderstorms in this area. The water temperatures
beneath are currently 27-28 deg C, but the warm waters in the Caribbean
are deep under the surface (26 deg C down to around 100m). Although the
computer model tracks are all keeping this to the south of Jamaica and
into the Yucatan (which I would have agreed with yesterday), given the
pressure fields I see today, if this develops into something, I think it
may actually pass north of Jamaica and interact with Cuba. The waters in
that entire northern Caribbean region are the warmest anywhere from the
eastern Atlantic to the Gulf, so this going to be an interesting 'Blob'
to watch. At it's current speed, it should pass the Jamaica region
around Sunday - but if you are heading there on Monday your flight may
be delayed... Again, a special tropical disturbance statement was issued
by the NHC at 11.25am, and they are sending in a plane to investigate
this afternoon. It is not yet officially a TD either.
More later ... when I'll have more data hopefully... need more data...
need more data... and a working, reliable crystal ball wouldn't hurt
either... :)
J.
Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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