Hurricane Bertha: July 11 Update B

It looks like she's made that little bit of a northward turn and is
"zipping along" in a N-NW. Now when I say "zipping along" I mean moving
forward at a fast pace relative to a snail... she's got a grand forward
speed of 4mph. She is encountering that high pressure and the poor
little thing is struggling really hard to move northward. Umm... but
this doesn't necessarily mean that she will avoid Bermuda altogether.

She's intensified slightly since this morning and now has winds of 90
mph (compared to the 85 mph earlier), but this still makes her a strong
cat 1 (wind range 74-95 mph). They finally sent in a plane to
investigate the storm this afternoon and have much better observations
on what is going on. Her central pressure is 976mb. The NHC do not
forecast a strengthening in the next few hours - although they have said
there is a possibility. I think it is very likely that she will become
stronger! She is already looking better, with stronger convection
occurring all around the eye (although the eye could do with some
polishing up yet). She is over water temperatures of 27-28 deg C,
although the depth of those warm waters is quite shallow. She is also in
a low-wind environment - all these indicate some further intensification
to me.

The other thing I do not agree with the NHC about at the moment is me
is that she will weaken in 36 hours as she moves over cooler temperature
...of what, 27-28 deg C?? - unless she picks up forward speed very
rapidly, or makes a sharp right turn and moves quickly I don't see the
'cooler temperature' waters they are referring to. As for picking up
speed, the models have her pretty much just loitering about
(mischievously of course - can one loiter any other way?) for a day or
two as she tries to get past this high. Scenario one from yesterday -
getting swept along that low pressure system - is not going to happen.

Meanwhile, back on Bermuda ... our intrepid reporter told me they loaded
the research vessel in preparation for departure in a couple of days and
now he's off to play a round of golf. Dum-de-dum... another normal day
in Bermuda (other than the tropical storm watch and closing of the south
beaches).

Have a wonderful weekend (this hopefully applies to people in Bermuda as
well). Unless something exciting happens tonight, I'll send something
out tomorrow.
Bye for now,
J.

P.S. I know a lot of new people have been 'dropping by' and reading this
so if you have any questions (or I am being incomprehensible :) ), then
do let me know.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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