Tropical Storm Bertha: July 13 Update A

The cooler waters underneath Bertha that I mentioned yesterday are taking
their toll on the storm and she now has winds of 65mph, making her a
Tropical Storm again (wind range: 39-73mph). Also as previously mentioned,
the greatest convective activity is in the northern section of the storm
where the waters are still over 27 deg C. However, she has not really
moved in the last 24 hours - she was at ~30N, 62.5W then and now the NHC
says she's at 30.2N, 63W. So I expect that those waters are becoming
cooler too. The NHC says she is moving NW at 2mph, but looking at the
satellite images it looks like she's still just more-or-less hanging out
in the same spot - I suppose, to use an American phrase, one could say
she's "chillin' out" ... in more ways than one :).

The eye is not as clearly defined which makes it a little difficult to
pin-point the exact center. A plane is going in this afternoon to
investigate the system so we will get a better idea of where her center of
circulation is later in the day.

Despite the lack of an eye she still has a really good circulation. There
is finally some wind shear ahead of her, and although the waters around
Bermuda are over 28 deg C, the warm water is pretty shallow. Therefore,
her intensity should not change too much. The slower she moves, the less
likelihood of her intensifying any time soon because she is already
impacting the water temperatures beneath her.

For those following the cruise soap-opera ("The Young and the Certainly
Restless" or maybe it should be "As the Water Turns"): The research cruise
departure has been postponed again and will leave on Tuesday morning. This
is better than a Monday morning departure, but, well... it does look like
she will be a tad closer to the island than the forecasts were saying
yesterday and if she doesn't start moving northward (or even just moving
actually) then Tuesday may cutting it a bit fine. The current marine
forecast for Tuesday morning, if Bertha is correctly forecast to be at
~33.5N, 63.5W:

SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 240 NM NE...210 NM SE...120 NM SW...AND 210
NM NW QUADRANTS. HIGHEST SEAS 22 FT.

Bermuda is at ~32.3, 64.8W so it will be in the SW quadrant of the storm.

Let's see if she decides to do something later.
Later gators,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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