TS Dolly: July 20 Update B - Special Note

O.k... I can't keep quiet anymore. There is something a bit dodgy about
this system. Either this should not be a named Tropical Storm (and not
because "Dolly" was the name of a cute and fluffy cloned sheep) or the NHC
have the center incorrectly idenitified and continue to do so.

The latest (11pm) advisory has the center at 19.6N, 85.6W ... which is
south of any convective activity. So either the center is completely
offset from the convection, in which case this system is so disorganized
it should not be a storm, or the center should be ~1 degree north of its
current official location and it will barely clip the Yucatan or may just
pass through the Strait - which will make a difference in it's future
track and intensity. The official center looked too far south to me all
day today relative to the convection (e.g. previous entry) and continues
to do so. If there is a center where the official one is, then I am not
convinced this is, or has been so far, a proper TS. For most of the
lifetime (to date) of this 'Blob' the circulation has not been the same as
the region of convection.

The NHC are hedging their bets already I think:

"DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW" ... "SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY."

and

"THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION."

This suggests to me that they already know/suspect it is north of their
official location... and for now at least, it is not technically a TS.

Sure there is some strong convection - but there has been for days and
days with this system. That is not reason enough for naming a system.

My problem with mis-defining systems is that this then becomes a
'statistic', so instead of having 3 named storms, we now have 4. We saw
this last year as well. I'll get into the whole storms and 'active' season
and climate discussion some other time though.

We'll see what happens by the morning - where exactly it passes over the
Yucatan Peninsula will tell us more. Dodgy Dolly. Hmm...looks like the
alliterations are not over yet!

Now that's off my mind I can go to sleep. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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