TS Bertha, TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 20 Update A

I thought I'd take it easy today as there was not much going on....

TS Bertha:
She became extratropical this morning and is currently at about 55N, 32W,
heading NE at 36 mph directly towards Iceland. There's not much rain in
this system, just some clouds and blustery winds of ~70 mph... so it will
be just another normal day in Iceland ina day or two. The NHC's last
advisory on this was at 11am this morning, but to show they are working,
she's been replaced (see below). This is my last entry on Beautiful,
Bemusing, Big, Boundless Bertha. I can barely remember when she first
began! The End.

TS Cristobal:
He is currently about 35N, 76W and in a few hours will be moving away from
the US. His heading is NE at 8mph, and he has winds of about 45 mph (TS:
39-74 mph). His convection has been weak for most of the last 24 hours,
but it has picked up this afternoon - most of the strongest activity
remains off-shore though (off the NC coast). For the most part, I think it
was a windy day in the Carolinas - maybe a few thunderstorms here and
there, but nothing too major. He is over water temperatures of 29 deg C,
and as he moves away from the coast there is a chance for some
intensification.

TS Dolly:
Formally known as 'The Blob', this storm went straight past the Tropical
Depression designation to a named Tropical Storm. We know she's had a lot
of convection, heavy and large thunderstorms etc since the beginning. But
this morning a plane found some closed circulation in the system and a
buoy reported sustained tropical force winds over a period of 4 hours. Her
circulation is not quite as strong as it was when she was named, but the
convection is still really severe, so she will remain a TS. Her winds are
around 45 mph, but I think that may increase a bit before landfall in the
Yucutan overnight. She is over very warm waters of 29-32 deg C, the warm
waters are deep, and she is in a low wind shear environment. Her
intensification will depend on how quickly she gets to the Yucutan
Peninsula and how long she stays over land - which will inhibit
intensification. There are strong thunderstorms over Cuba and the Caymans
at the moment.

The forecast track takes her over the northern Yucutan, then out into the
Gulf and towards the Mexico/Texas border on wednesday afternoon. The
waters are also warm over the Gulf so she may intensify further and the
models all currently predict her becoming a hurricane. She's currently
somewhere around 19N, 85W, but the center is difficult to see because she
is not very well organized. It almost looks like the center is a little
north of the official one (closer to 20N, 85W), but they got their
information by flying through the system so I will go with that. The
pressure maps I am looking at show that there is a high pressure that is
currently siting over the Gulf, extending down into Mexico. Unless that
changes tomorrow, there's a chance that she will clip the Yucutan
peninsula and then take a more W-NW path than the NW one currently
forecast, taking her into Mexico. In which case, she may not have time to
intensify to hurricane strength after crossing the Yucutan.

I'm sure there will be more fun and games tomorrow...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
------------------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
-------------------------------------------