TS Bertha and the Blobs and Blobettes: July 17 Update B

TS Bertha:
She's still a good looking tropical storm in terms of wind (60mph) and
circulation, but the heavy rains are in the northeast quadrant which is
what I expected to see given that the eastern side is over warmer sea
surface temperatures of over 28 deg C. She is now at about 34 N, 57.2W
and is heading eastward at a faster 12mph. Tomorrow she will turn
towards the NE and away from this side of the Pond. One of these days
there won't be a TS Bertha - the end is nigh (...in a few days). I
promise.

For those who are following the research cruise, I finally heard again
from them earlier today (after silence yesterday): "We're getting some
pretty big swells at the moment and some people are looking quite
'ordinary'. " I asked for a clarification on 'ordinary'... I'm not 100%
convinced it's the "nicest" research cruise people have been on.

The Blobette:
This was the low that was over Florida yesterday. As I said yesterday,
the time to really start watching this was when it crossed to the
eastern side of the Florida peninsula and was over the Gulf Stream.
Well, it's there now. The circulation has improved in the lower
atmosphere and although there has not been too much rainfall with this
yet, the convection has increased steadily during the day. It is
currently about 75 miles east of Jacksonville, centered somewhere around
31N, 81W. It looks like it will head in a N-NE direction for now -
pretty much along the axis of the Gulf Stream. It is interacting with
land, which will prevent it from developing too much, but it may bring
some cloudy weather and a spot of lovely rain to Georgia and the
Carolinas. The rain over Florida today is connected to this as well. It
is not yet labeled a Tropical Depression though - so very light winds.

The Blob:
This is the bunch of clouds and really heavy rainfall that's moving
along the northern coast of South America. No change in the lower level
circulation in the atmosphere, and still no circulation aloft. It's
somewhere around 13N, 67W. It's heading westward at about 20-25 mph. The
only change really is that the high pressure that was keeping it to the
south is slowly eroding northwards, so it may head a little north
towards the Yucatan instead of the Nicaragua/Honduras portions of
Central America. That's still days away.

That's all for today folks.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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