TS Cristobal and TS Dolly: July 22 Update A

TS Cristobal:
He's still hanging on, partly because he's over sea surface temperatures
of 26-27 deg C. He is in a higher wind shear environment now, but there
is not too much rainfall activity. Just some clouds and a lot of wind.
Winds are at 65 mph, so still a fairly strong tropical storm (39-73mph)
and his 'center' is located somewhere around 41N, 66W. Circulation is in
the lower troposphere (lowest section of our atmosphere) only. He is
heading NE at 25 mph and will soon be over cooler waters and in a high
wind shear. I'm not sure he will last for too long - and that is in
agreement with the NHC.

TS Dolly:
Her winds are near 70 mph, so she is still a TS but a strong one -
almost at hurricane strength. They say an eye is developing, but it
looks about as developed as the satellite images were showing yesterday,
however their data is from a plane that flew threw this morning and also
found a central pressure of 991mb. She's at 24N, 94.5W and is moving NW
at 12 mph. Water temperatures beneath her are 29 deg C, and the upper
~70 m has 26 degC or warmer. The forecast calls for a NW or WNW track
with some slowing down before she makes landfall tomorrow. I would agree
with that. I also agree with the track - landfall somewhere in the
Texas/Mexico area (although at the moment Mexico looks more likely to me
because the high pressure is still covering most of the northern Gulf
and Texas - but we'll see if the next set of information shows any
change in the pressure field). There is some strong convection, although
it has decreased a little in the last couple of hours. The areal extent
of this storm is pretty big - the outer bands are bringing clouds and
rain to Mississippi. Circulation has improved and is now over the entire
troposphere.

Gotta go... more later,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
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DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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