[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 'Olga': December 13, Update A

Since last we met, Olga intensified a bit, and then deteriorated to a
Tropical Depression. There was a lot of rainfall, but that has dissipated
and although there is still a center of circulation she doesn't look very
good. The center is north of Jamaica and heading generally westward. If
you are diving in the Keys this weekend, umm... it may be a little on the
rough side. I won't be sending another update on this storm unless there's
re-intensification.

I got some info from the NOAA/NWS (Thank You!) on December tropical storms
in the last 10 years that I thought was interesting.

Tropical Storm Zeta
30 Dec 2005 - 6 Jan 2006
Max Sust Winds: 61 mph (Jan 1 2006)

Hurricane Epsilon
29 Nov - 8 Dec 2005
Max Sust Winds: 83 mph (Dec 5 2005)

Tropical Storm Otto
29 Nov - 3 dec 2004
Max Sust Winds: 50 mph (Nov 29-30 2004)

Tropical Storm Peter
7 - 11 Dec 2003
Max Sust Winds: 67 mph (Dec 9 2003)

Tropical Storm Odette
4 - 7 Dec 2003
Max Sust Winds: 61 mph (Dec 5 2003)

Hurricane Olga
24 Nov - 4 Dec 2001
Max Sust Winds: 89 mph (Nov 27 2001)

Hurricane Nicole
24 Nov - 1 Dec 1998 (became extratropical on Dec 2)
Max Sust Winds: 83 mph (Dec 1 1998)

That's it for now folks. I'll wrap up this season, again, until the next
storm ;) Have a good holiday etc. (see Nov 30th entry). And if you live in
the northeast - there's a big nor'easter heading your way this weekend so
wrap up warm!!

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Olga: December 11, Update A

STS Olga made landfall in the Dominican Republic this afternoon, and is
now inland. This should knock some steam out of her (all puns fully
intended). :)

As I thought yesterday, she has been moving in a little more northerly
direction than was predicted when I sent the last entry out. The track now
takes her north of Jamiaca instead of south. I still think this is a
little too far south, and am expecting a continuation of her current
west-northwest movement, bringing her closer to Cuba - which may not be a
problem because she may not be in good shape after crossing Hispaniola.

She's still a weak system (sustained winds of 45mph), and I agree with the
NHC - clearly not much room for intensification. She is, primarily, a rain
event not a wind event.

The VIs are almost clear of precipitation from this system, but PR is
still getting rain, as is the Domincan Republic and Haiti - so the
possibility of mudslides is there.

I did blog about Tropical vs. Subtropical vs. Extratropical storms a few
months ago (on June 1). I've cut and paste below what I wrote then - and
please feel free to send me more questions on this or any other aspect of
these storms. I should point out that a long time ago (around 2002), when
meteorologists were er... meteorologists :), subtropical storms were not
named storms and were, therefore, more clearly recognized as different
systems.

-----------
>From June 1 entry:

What is the difference between an extratropical storm, a tropical storm,
and a subtropical storm?

An Extratropical Storm: These usually form in the extratropics (quelle
suprise!) and have cold air at their core. A cold air mass meets a warm
air mass, and as the warm air rises (because it is lighter than the cold
air), it releases potential energy that results in these systems. Because
warm air rises, a low pressure is formed which is why these are also
called low pressure systems.They are usually associated with fronts which
are depicted on weather maps as lines of blue triangles (for a cold front)
or red semi-circles (for a warm front). Because it's the collision of air
masses, these systems can occur over land or water, and occur frequently
in the winter in the US as snowstorms/blizzards or Nor'easters.

A Tropical Storm: These usually form in the tropics (aren't we good at
naming things?) and have warm air at their core. The energy source for
these differ from extratropical storms. These storms form over water only
and the energy source is latent heat. Warm water evaporates into the air.
As the rising warm moisture-laden air in the center reaches colder
altitudes in the atmosphere, the water vapor condenses to form clouds and
latent heat is released. The heaviest rains and winds are in a band close
to the center. No fronts are associated with these storms (although
'waves' in the atmosphere are) - which makes it difficult to determine too
far ahead of time when a storm will develop. A tropical storm is when the
winds are greater than 34 knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less
than that, it is a tropical depression.

A Subtropical Storm: These usually contain some characteristics of both
extratropical and tropical systems. For example, imagine an extratropical
storm moving over warmer water. Now the storm begins to get some energy
from latent heat as well, and the cold air in the center (near the
surface) is replaced by warm air, so the storm core can change from cold
to warm. The heaviest rains and winds are not near the center. Like a
tropical system, a subtropical storm is when the winds are greater than 34
knots (39 miles per hour). If the winds are less than that, it is a
subtropical depression. Subtropical Storm Andrea was formed from an
extratropical low pressure system/front that moved eastward off the coast
of the US over warmer waters.

It's only since 2002 that subtropical storms were given names from the
hurricane name list - which would partly account for why we have had more
named storms in the past few years.
----------

That's all for now folks. Have a lovely day!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Olga: December 10, Update A

How's a person supposed to Hibernate when there are Subtropical Storms
about? And didn't anyone tell Mother Nature that statistically, "Hurricane
Season" (June 1- Nov 30, when 97% of storms occur) is over?

Yes, Subtropical Storm Olga is out there, with a center of circulation in
the vicinity of the Virgin Islands. She's heading in a west-southwestward
direction at a fairly nice 15 mph, and has been slowly getting better
organized during the day, so this evening she officially became a STS.

She is experiencing some wind shear, which is why the major portion of
convective activity is to the north and east of the center, but the Virgin
Islands are close to the center, and on the southern edge of some heavy
convection, so I expect they are getting a bit of rain.

She is a weak but broad Subtropical Storm (no reflection on anyone called
Olga!!) with sustained winds of 40 mph (TS: 39-73mph) extending out about
200 miles from the center, and although she is over warm water (27 deg C),
she is interacting with the mountains of Puerto Rico, and will also be
interacting with the Dominican Republic/Haiti soon. That, combined with
the wind shear should prevent her from intensifying too much.

Although the official track takes her over Hispaniola and into the
Caribbean, I think there's a chance that she might stay a little north of
that track and might end up heading towards Cuba instead if she survives
that long - we will see. Regardless, PR is getting rain, and Hispaniola
can expect it tomorrow.

I'll send out another update when I can (sometime tomorrow).

Night night,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Final 2007 entry - I hope!

Hello my friends, It's that time of the year... Welcome to the END of the Hurricane Season! (and welcome to all those who signed up in November!! - I bet you are wondering why now? :))

To summarize the 2007 season:  We had a total of 14 named storms and 6 hurricanes, because they have just upgraded Karen (anyone remember her?) in the post-season analysis to a hurricane (for less than 12 hours whilst she was over the Atlantic). That makes this an average year as far as the number of hurricanes, and slightly above average in terms of the total named storms, but still a way below average year if you take into consideration the combined duration and intensity of all the storms.

Once again, a certain well known company (to protect the innocent, let's call it Company A) lived up to it's nick-name (inaccuwea..cough cough). To recap: Before the 2006 season, their report said: "In terms of the number of storms, the 2006 hurricane season will again be more active than normal, but less active than last summer's historic storm season." 2006 had below normal activity. Before the 2007 season, their report said: "the Gulf and Florida face a renewed threat, and we will see more powerful storms across the board. We will not get anywhere near the amount of storms that we did in 2005, but it is the intensity of the storms we do get that will be of major concern.” With the exception of two cat 5s that remained in the Caribbean, all the other storms were far weaker than usual. In all fairness to Company A, they weren't the only ones making such grand claims. Unfortunately, this highlights the importance we put on early season forecasts, when we don't really understand the physical system at play. It is what the public wants to know, but it also causes life-threatening problems when those claims do not materialize because the public begins to ignore them, and then when something awful is going to happen they ignore that as well (as we saw with Katrina)  the-boy-who-cried-wolf-syndrome. Forecasting for the entire season is not a very scientific thing - so please treat any forecasts you hear for the entire season with a pinch of salt (unless it's my forecast of course ;) ), and don't get complacent - it's always good to be prepared!

On to other "news". In case you missed it, Herbert Saffir, the co-creator of the Saffir-Simpson that we fondly use to categorize hurricanes, passed away last week (Nov. 21). He was 90 years of age. The scale is based on how much damage is caused at certain wind speeds, which is why each category is not evenly distributed in terms of the wind speed brackets.

Finally, I would like to do my annual count of how many people are exposed to my emails/blog entries - can you send me a note if you forward these missives to anyone (spouse, sibling, cat, dog, the fish in the neighbour's pond), how many you forward to, and what state (or country) they live in? That would be greatly appreciated!

Thanks to all who have helped in bringing this to you - the computing wizards at CMS/USF, and to C. in Texas for maintaining the blog, and to my friends, family and colleagues for doing their best to keep me sane and retain a sense of humour ;)

Have a wonderful holiday season, New Year, etc etc...
That's all for now folks :)

J.
------------------------------
Disclaimer... blah blah blah.... (see the website blog archives if you want to read it).
------------------------------

[Jyo_hurricane] Extratropical Storm Noel: November 4, Update A

We can say bye bye to Noel until Christmas-time now. He pretty much
disintegrated as he approached Nova Scotia. This is my last entry on Noel.

Also, the blob that was off Nicaragua yesterday is now bringing squally
weather to Nicaragua and Honduras - it remained a blob. So no more on
that either.

Once again, that's all until the end of the season or until something
else pops up - whatever is first.

Don't forget, the clocks turned back an hour last night... so I hope you
all caught that extra hour of sleep :)

Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Extratropical Storm Noel: November 3, Update A

I didn't send anything out yesterday because there was no change from
the forecast track or intensity from the day before. He is now an
extra-tropical storm, and handsome looking one at that - complete with
an eye. Oddly, the NHC decided to stop issuing advisories on this system
yesterday afternoon, even though the outer edges of this system are
being felt along the eastern sea-board. I don't recall them ever
stopping this early, even for an extratropical storm... maybe I've
entered the Twilight Zone (appropriately enough given the proximity to
Halloween - insert spooky music)... anyway, I will continue...

He is currently centered at about 36N, 71W, more or less due west of
Maryland, and is heading in a general north-eastward direction. There is
a chance that the center will clip the outer edges of Nova Scotia. He is
currently over the Gulf Stream and in a relatively weak wind shear
environment. The circulation is really strong at all but the upper
levels of the atmosphere.

Most of the moisture associated with this system is now to the north and
west of the eye, so for those of you in New York, Boston and north, the
clouds and possible rain you are experiencing today are part of the
outer bands of Noel. It doesn't look too bad from the satellite images
though. Just leave the sun glasses at home :)

What the NHC is doing though, to keep themselves busy, is keeping an eye
on a low pressure system off the coast of Nicaragua in the Caribbean. It
has some convection and a little bit of low-level circulation but that's
about it. It's just a "blob" (technical term for those who have recently
joined this list :) ) at the moment.

That's all for today. I think. Have fun whatever you are doing :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Hurricane Noel: November 1, Update B

Good evening my friends,

Yup, you know who became a hurricane earlier this evening and is a
small-to-mid sized cat 1 at the moment with winds of 80 mph (cat 1: 74-95
mph). He has cleared the Bahamas, is zooming north-northeastward at 20
mph, and is currently at 27.3N, 76.1W.

The center of circulation is now firmly embedded within the area of
convection, but you can still see that there is some shear because the
clouds are larger in the north-east quadrant. He is also 'merging' with a
front that is moving eastward off the US eastern states into the Atlantic,
because, really, he doesn't have enough clouds of his own. :)

I agree with the NHC - he will become a strong extratropical storm
(hurricane) tomorrow. At the moment his forecast path takes him to the
Nova Scotia area on Saturday. I think there's a strong possibility that he
will curve out into the Atlantic before getting to that point - unless he
speeds up.

Toodle-pip for now,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: November 1, Update A

Goodness me... I don't know what the Bahamas did to deserve this storm,
but they've been under heavy rainfall and thunderstorms for the past
three days. However, the end is in sight (although the sun may not yet
be in sight for them). Noel has picked up speed (14mph forward motion)
and has changed direction from northward to
north-northeastward/north-eastward, as expected, and is moving away from
Cuba and Florida. His center is currently in the Bahamas (north of
Nassau). All Tropical Storm watches and warnings have been lifted for
Florida.

There is still a lot of convection with this system, and the winds are
now at 65mph. He might intensify a bit more because he's still over warm
waters (>28 deg C), but there is some moderate wind shear. After he's
crossed the island chain the temperatures are a little cooler (~27 deg
C), but still warm enough to sustain the storm. Although the center of
circulation is no longer as removed from the convective activity as it
was yesterday it is still on the south-western side of that activity -
so most of that convection is still to the north and east.

Unfortunately, the death toll from Hispaniola is not good - at least 90
people, with dozens still missing. They may be retiring the name "Noel"
after this year. We'll see what shape the Bahamas are in once they
emerge from behind the clouds. Hopefully not as bad.

More later...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update C

Noel is no longer stationary (hurray hurray) and is moving northward away
from Cuba, ahead of the expected north-eastward turn into the Bahamas.
This is the time to watch, because he is moving away from land, is over
warm water (>28 deg C) and is temporarily in an area of slightly lower
wind shear so if he is going to grow, I agree with the NHC, it will be
within the next day. The 'center of circulation' is still on the western
edge of the convection, although not as much as removed from it as it has
been in the past few days.

The convection associated with this system is very impressive, and his
wind speed is up to 60 mph making him a moderate-to-strong storm.

That's all for today folks. I'll be back. Tomorrow. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update B

Just a quick note for now, and maybe another update later this evening.

Noel is stuck just off the northern coast of Cuba - stationary storms
are not something I'm not fond of because it introduces an added level
of uncertainty in both the intensity and track forecast. He is
stationary because he is bumping up against that high that I've
mentioned over the past few days. However, I think he will be making a
move towards the north-east soon - either that or the NHC is correct in
thinking that his center might be trying to "re-form" in the center of
the convective activity over the Bahamas (north-east of his current
location). This is a complicated atmospheric situation - it is fun
trying to figure it out :)

Although there is wind shear, and he is interacting with land, his
center is stationary over warm water. His wind speed is now about 50
mph, and southeast Florida is under a Tropical Storm watch (not
warning). There is *a lot* of moisture associated with this storm -
again, all over the Bahamas at the moment (all north-east of the center
of circulation).

I sent out a website a few storms ago that allows you to look at the
water level 'live'. Go to tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov. Scroll down on the
left side until you see 'State Maps'. Click on that, then click on
Florida, then click on Virginia Key (for example) and you can see the
real-time water level, pressure decrease etc. associated with this
storm. This is a small fraction of the sort of information that a
real-time ocean observing system can provide :)

Have a fun evening!
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 31, Update A

I was going to send out another update yesterday but there wasn't much to
add from the morning update - during the day he continued to move westward
over Cuba and it knocked some wind out of him (all puns intended :) ).

His current wind speed max is about 40 mph (TS: 39 - 73 mph), so he's
barely a TS. Actually, other than some very heavy convection over the
Bahamas, I'm not sure he would be a TS. I'm glad that the NHC know where
his center of circulation is, because from the satellite images it is
difficult to identify and from a wind-based analysis it looks like the
lower level atmospheric circulation is slightly south of Cuba, the
mid-levels are over northern Cuba, and there isn't any to speak of at the
upper levels.

He is still in a region of moderate-to-strong wind shear, so the rainfall
activity is still to the north and east of the circulation.

He is now moving in a north-northwestward direction, suggesting that he is
beginning to make that turn and is moving clockwise around that little
high pressure (from the '6' to towards the '9' if it was a clock face). He
is still over Cuba, but if the center is where the NHC says it is, he is
about to emerge off northern Cuba. Inhibiting development is the wind
shear, but he will be over warmer waters again - over 28 deg C. If he is
making 'the turn', later today he should be moving northward.

The windy weather we have been having over Florida over the past couple of
days was not because we were feeling the storm, but because of the
complicated low pressure front and stubborn high pressure system in a
relatively small area creating a big gradient in pressure - the stronger
the gradient, the stronger the wind flows. But in the next day or two, the
breezy winds will most likely be from the storm, and those of you down in
south-east Florida may experience them - currently TS winds are being felt
175 miles from the center. If he makes the northward turn, then his center
and heavy convection will stay away from south Florida. That's what to
look for today. But even if his center comes close to Florida, the
precipitation (which is what this storm is all about more than the wind)
will be to the east, and mostly offshore.

I'll send out another update today when/if things change. I guess no-one
told Noel he's here on the wrong holiday. Have a Happy Halloween.
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Correction: Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

Oops...Correction:

> The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
> thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the
northern
> Bahamas.

I meant to say a curve to the north and then north-east (taking it away
from the US). It's still morning here - I typed that with my eyes
half-shut ;)

Also, I might as well add that I read the latest NHC report since the last
note I sent, and the center of Noel's circulation is over Cuba still
moving westward.

J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 30, Update A

TS Noel is still out there, with winds of about 60mph. He is moving
westward at about 12 mph and has a central pressure of 999mb.

Unfortunately, instead of heading north-north-westward or even
north-westward, he has been moving westward over the last few hours, which
means that the heavy convection that was over the Dominican Republic did
reach Haiti. He is moving westward along the southern edge of that high
pressure I mentioned yesterday. Remember, in the northern hemisphere,
movement is clockwise around a high pressure system.

The farther west he moves, the closer he comes to Florida when he makes
his north-westward turn, however, if he continues westward then he will
cross Cuba, which may be too much for him. The pressure maps show a weak
high extending into the Gulf (across Cuba), but I should hopefully get a
much better idea of what is going on later this morning when I can see the
latest data. The computer model tracks are all over the place - the only
thing they agree on in a curve to the north-west somewhere in the northern
Bahamas. I am not 100% convinced of this yet.

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. The water temperatures are
still over 28 deg C - this is above the 26.5 deg needed to sustain a
storm.

Now for the good news (yes, there is some):

He is moving along the northern edge of Cuba. So a part of him is
interacting with land. Continuing west will take him over Cuba. He is
still in a region of moderate wind sheer, so the convection is mostly on
the north and east side of the circulation center.

The upper atmospheric levels of circulation are slightly removed from the
lower and mid levels, which should help inhibit development.

I'll send out another update later today. Let me know if you have any
questions.

Toodles,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 29, Update B

TS Noel is now relaxing and drinking pina coladas in the Bahamas (or
maybe that's what I wish I was doing ;) ). It's been a busy morning -
he crossed Hispaniola, had his center of circulation relocated by the
NHC to the north, and has fallen apart quite a bit because of a
combination of the mountainous terrain and higher wind shear. The
convection has decreased, and at the moment it doesn't look likely that
he will reintensify very much. His track is generally north-westward.

The circulation is still very broad and disorganized, and they are
planning on sending a plane in later today to see if they can find the
center. All the models will have to be re-initialized with the new
center location, so if you are looking at their tracks at the moment,
they will all change in a few hours.

There is a low front that is hanging out over Florida at the moment (for
those in Florida: look up, see clouds?, that's it). This is separated
from the Tropical Storm by a small high pressure system, which has been
weakening since yesterday. So at some point, if the storm hasn't already
moved northeastward out into the Atlantic, the low front should help it
on it's merry way.

Maybe one more later...
Ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Noel: October 29, Update A

Good morning,

TS Noel has deteriorated even further since yesterday and now has winds
of about 45mph (TS: 39-73 mph), so he is a fairly weak system. It looks
like most of Haiti is going to get away with only a little rain as most
of the really heavy precipitation is continuing over the Dominican
Republic. Of the two sides of Hispaniola this is probably a good thing
because of the greater potential for mudslides in Haiti.

The center of Noel is about to pass over Haiti - the convection is still
to the east of where the NHC thinks the center of circulation is.
Actually, looking at the satellite images it is difficult to pinpoint an
exact center. He is moving north-northwestward at about 6mph, and will
be crossing into the Atlantic/Bahamas in the next 24 hours. I agree with
the official forecasts that have him staying in the Atlantic, east of
Florida.

More later... have a lovely day. :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Noel: October 28, Update B

Tropical Storm Noel (pronounced 'Nol' or 'Knoll' according to the National
Hurricane Center - NHC) is still a disorganized mass of heavy convection,
bringing a lot of rain to the Dominican Republic at the moment, and Haiti
soon.

Because he is not well defined, it is difficult to see where the exact
center of circulation is - circulation is over a very broad area,
encompassing portions of Hispaniola. Complicating this is that the
convection is still to the east of the circulation. He has room to move
north-northwestward for a while, and for now I agree with those tracks
that take him close to Haiti and eastern Cuba, and then to the
Atlantic/Bahamas.

The lack of organization, possibly passing over Hispaniola, and moderate
wind shear should keep him at bay, although water temperatures are over 28
deg C. Current winds are at 60 mph (TS: 39-73 mph).

Until tomorrow...
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 16: October 28, Update A

Well, just about one more month to go until the official end to the
season, and it's not *quite* over yet. I was quite enjoying the lovely
high wind-shear hiatus but a pesky little tropical depression has been
developing for the past few days, and is now officially TD 16 in the
north-eastern Caribbean - just south of Hispaniola.

There is some very good convective activity associated with this system,
but it is not very well organized and is still in a relatively high wind
shear environment (the convection is east/northeast of the circulation).
There is some circulation at the lower levels of the atmosphere south of
Hispaniola, but upper level circulation is a little removed and is
centered between Hispaniola and Cuba.

There's a chance that this will become a Tropical Storm. At the moment it
is a fairly week system (other than the areas where there are
thunderstorms and heavy rainfall), and I agree with the general
west-northwest movement over the next day or so. The storm is too weak and
it is too soon to say much more about the future track, other than the
intensity will depend on that track.

More soon(ish). Have a good weekend :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Tropical Remains of the Day: October 1, Update A

TD Karen has been downgraded to a low with no more NHC advisories. TS
Melissa is a TD but is so weak that the NHC has also stopped advisories.
There is still some circulation with both systems, so I will check up on
them once in a while, but this is my last entry on both.

The wind shear was really strong - too much for them to cope with. I'm
sure you've been on the edge of your seats wondering what I wanted to say
about wind shear... so here you go...

Maybe you have heard that in an El Nino year we have fewer Atlantic storms
because the wind shear is strong, and conversely, in a La Nina year we
have more storms because the wind shear is weak? An El Nino year is when
the waters in the central/eastern Pacific are warmer than usual, with
associated changes in the overlying atmosphere. A La Nina is when the
waters are colder than usual. The temperature change usually peaks in the
winter months.

I do not agree that there is such a strong connection between El Nino/La
Nina and the hurricane season - there is *some* connection, but not as
much as some folks would like everyone to believe.

Last year the much-vaunted justification for an "unexpectedly" quiet
season was because of a surpise El Nino that resulted in a strong wind
shear, which supressed the storms. That (in my humble opinion) is
incorrect (and hence not unexpected). The 2006 season was weak for a
number of other reasons.

This year, we heard that the season would be strong partly because of a La
Nina that would result in weaker wind shear. I agree with one part of
this. We are, indeed, in a La Nina. You can check the temperatures in the
Pacific at any time by going to http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/jsdisplay/.
If
you click on the figure with the colorful panels, the map will get big
enough to see the details. At the moment, temperatures are -2.5 deg C
below the average in the Pacific - most definitely a La Nina.

So the slight flaw in the wind shear argument is that we are in a La Nina
and the wind shear is pretty strong.

Clearly, there are still a "couple of things" we need to work out about
hurricanes and our present-day climate in general. But for now, it's time
for a glass of wine. Priorities you know. ;)

If you have any questions, about this or some other aspect of hurricanes,
please don't hesitate to ask.

So, until there's something else out there... or it's the last day of the
season - whatever comes first, ciao,
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Karen & TS Melissa: September 29, Update A

TD Karen:

After so many days of being in a strong wind shear environment (over 30 kt
shear), Karen is looking really poorly and just got downgraded to a
Tropical Depression. I would completely agree with that. Her track was a
bit loopy yesterday (but then again, whose isn't? ;) ), but she is now
heading northwestward. I'll still be watching her because there is some
circulation, but won't send anything out unless there's a change
(instensification or otherwise).

TS Melissa:

Formerly TD 14 in the eastern Atlantic, TS Melissa is a weak system and is
heading west-northwestward. She is also in a relatively high wind shear
environment, which is not helping her cause. The forecast track takes her
out to the Atlantic. Like Karen, I won't send anything out on her unless
there is a change, or unless she looks like she is heading towards land.

I was going to give you all something to ponder over concerning the strong
wind shear, but it's the weekend and you probably have lots of other fun
things to do. So I'll save that for a rainy day - but don't forget that
these storms are having difficulty developing because of the strong wind
shear. I'll be mentioning it again soon.

Have fun! :)
J.

Blogs archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, the remains of Lorenzo, and TD 14: September 28, Update A

I'll start with the easiest first.

TD 14:
This is a new Tropical Depression, way out in the eastern Atlantic,
close to the Cape Verde Islands. It has some circulation and
convection. It is heading in a northwestward direction into the
Atlantic at the moment. Unless someone tells me they know someone on the
Cape Verde Islands, I won't send anything else on this until I becomes a
named storm. So... er... more on this later today then.

TD Lorenzo, formally known as TS Lorenzo, and briefly known as Hurricane
Lorenzo:
He was moving so slowly that he did have a chance to intensify some more
before making landfall. He was upgraded to a hurricane yesterday
evening, and stayed as such for about 5-6 hours, but rapidly lost steam
(puns always intended :) ) after making landfall at around 1 am this
morning in Mexico. He's now inland and a depression so this is my last
entry on him.

TS Karen:
She's still out in the Atlantic and that very strong westerly wind shear
is successfully keeping her disorganized, so all the convection is to
the east of the circulation. Until a few hours ago there wasn't too much
deep convection to speak of, but since the last NHC advisory the deep
convection has picked up again. This might be a mid-afternoon
strengthening. The NHC forecast has her downgraded to a depression at
the next advisory, but with this convective activity, they might hold
back from that. Either way, she's a weak system at the moment.

They did move her long-term track a little closer to the islands, as
expected. Her movement has been a little doolalee (sp?) today, because
the high pressure that has been steering her in a west-northwestward
direction until now has changed a bit. It stayed strong to the north and
east, but also started building up to the west, so she has had this
little pocket in which she is moving around in a circular manner - she
started at 15.1N, 49.2W a few hours ago, and is now at 15.9N, 49.2W but
looks like she might head back southward a bit - it is difficult to tell
when she will finish this circular sort of motion. There's a chance she
will get out of this and instead of resuming her west-northwestward
track, she will move a bit more north-northwestward (away from land) -
it is tricky to see at the moment, so I might send out another note
later today once she has finished dancing in circles.

That's all for now folks!
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen & TS Lorenzo: September 27, Update A

TS Karen:
She's undergoing some *very* strong wind shear from the west (at least
50 knots in some places) so if you look at a satellite image you can see
a beautiful rotation and center of circulation, but all the convection
is to her east. I don't remember seeing such strong wind shear for any
storm so far this season. She remains a TS, and it looks like that shear
will continue for a day or so. The high pressure has not weakened much
since yesterday, so I expect her to maintain a west-northwest path for
the next few days. This will keep her in the Atlantic, but maybe a bit
closer to the VIs (in 4-5 days) than the current cone suggests. She's
still moving at around 12 mph, and has winds of about 65 mph.

TS Lorenzo:
TD 13 was named earlier this afternoon after a plane went into the
system and found 60 mph winds (TS: 39-73mph; 34-63kt). He is moving at a
mere 3mph in a south-westward direction and is over waters of 29-31 deg
C. He is also very close to land (Mexico) so it is unlikely he will
develop much more than this - but because he is moving so slowly, the
center won't make landfall until early tomorrow morning. He is mostly a
rain event. Probably another system which will be a named tropical
storm for less than 24 hours.

I suppose if we are to have above average years, then these are the
sorts of storms to have!

Toodles for today,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Karen, TD 13, and the Florida Blob: September 26, Update A

This is like a box of chocolates - there's an assortment of things out
there.

Tropical Storm Karen:
As expected, she has strengthened and is now close to hurricane strength
with winds of 70mph (Cat 1: 74-95mph, 64-82kt). The deep convection has
just decreased, but that's just a temporary blip and not a long term
decrease, so we might see Hurricane Karen by the end of today. She is
over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is in a region of reasonably
strong wind shear so that might help to keep the intensity down for a
while. As for the track, the pressure maps show the high that has been
steering her westwards is a little weaker. I can see the low that is
supposed to erode the high, but the question is will it happen before
she gets close to the Caribbean. Some models say yes, others say maybe
not. For now, I would say she'll stay on a west-northwest path for the
next 24 hours, which is more westward than the official center of cone
forecast. There is still room and time for her to stay in the Atlantic,
but I would still be prepared on the islands (don't put your rain gear
away yet :) ). She's plodding along at 13 mph, and will take another 5-6
days still to get to the Caribbean vicinity.

Tropical Depression 13:
The blobette that was hanging out over the western Gulf did a little
wonder woman swirl (which is going to be really embarrassing for it
later if it gets the manly name, TS Lorenzo) and re-emerged a bit
farther south (still in the western Gulf) as a tropical depression -
close to a tropical storm. The high pressure that it was stuck against
intensified southwards, so this system is still more-or-less stuck and
is drifting southwards at a grand 2 mph - the only reason we know this
is because a Hurricane Hunter plane was in the system this morning to
check if it was a storm, and will go in again this afternoon to check if
it is a TS. It is a very weak system, so it's tricky finding the center
of circulation from the satellite imagery. The models all have it going
south-southwest. It looks like there was a couple of millimeters of
Mexico that didn't get rain from earlier storms this year, so this
system might head in that direction. It's over warm waters and the
longer it stays there, the greater the chances for intensification.
Circulation for this system is in the lower to mid-levels of the
troposphere.

South Florida Blob:
The blobette that did not have much circulation to speak off over
southern Florida yesterday is now over the Straits of Florida region,
and has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the troposphere.
There is more circulation in this system than there is in TD 13. There
is also a nice amount of convection associated with this system but the
center of circulation (southwestern Florida & Straits) is to the west of
the area of convection (southeastern Florida/Straits/Bahamas). It's
worth keeping an eye on this blob, particularly because there is
circulation, and because it is over the deep warm waters of the Loop
Current-Florida Current-Gulf Stream system.

Just as an aside, the official names for the Straits on either side of
Cuba are the "Straits of Florida" and the "Yucatan Straits". I have to
point this out because it drives one of my colleagues bananas when he
hears things like the "Florida Straits". Of course, if you want to see
him go bananas, now you know what to do. :)

There are other things out there, but nothing worth really writing about
at the moment.

Stay tuned... (or not) :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Karen and the Blobettes: September 25, Update A

Does that title sound like a band name? :)

Welcome to the 11th named storm of the season - this is now officially
an 'average' season with 11 named storms, and so far a below-average
season as far as hurricanes go (average number of hurricanes = 6, so
they need to make up another 3 to reach that goal).

As you all know by now, the BIG BLOB from yesterday got upgraded from an
invest to a tropical depression to a tropical storm *really* quickly. No
surprise there (unless you weren't reading my blog, in which case...
Surprise!!!). She has circulation in the lower and mid-levels of the
troposphere and heavy convection covering many hundreds of miles.

She is in the central Atlantic, at about 11N, 39W heading in a
west-northwestward direction at 15 mph. The forecast track still keeps
this storm away from land, and curves it northward into the Atlantic. If
I were on the islands though, I would still be prepared for some stormy
weather in a few days (as well as today). The high pressure over the
Atlantic extends into the Caribbean, which suggests a more westward
track for the next 24 hours, in agreement with the NHC track for that
time. At the moment I don't know if the low that the models are
predicting will erode this high (beginning tomorrow) and cause the
system to move northward, but she is at least 4-5 days away from the
Caribbean and my time machine is in the shop at the moment so I can't
see what will happen that far ahead. We'll have a much better idea of
things this time tomorrow as that high is supposed to begin eroding and
the forecast track shows a more northwestward movement instead of
west-northwest.

She's a weak TS with winds of about 40mph (35kt) - barely a TS (34-63
kt, 39-73mph). Although this is the same wind speed as "Jerry" (cough
cough... sorry, something got stuck in my throat), this storm has far
more heavy convection and, unlike Jerry, she will get stronger. She is
over waters of 28 deg C and about to enter waters of 29 deg C (parts of
her are already over these slightly warmer waters). On the north side of
the storm there is some westerly wind shear (westerly meaning winds from
the west). The forecast says that she will barely be a cat 1 hurricane
in 5 days because of anticipated wind shear and upper atmospheric
conditions that prevent her from growing. Doesn't that sound nice?

The Blobettes:

There's a struggling blobette still partying in the Lesser Antilles and
heading towards the VIs. It has some low-level circulation, and some
deep convection. Enjoy the much-needed rain!

There's another struggling blobette just hanging out in the western Gulf
of Mexico with the fish. This one hasn't moved much because it is stuck
against a high pressure system to the north and west, so it is difficult
to see where it will move when it does get going but Texas might be
getting some rain again soon. There is some low-level circulation and
some associated convection - the rainfall in LA is associated with this.

There's a mass of convection off southern Florida and in the Bahamas. No
circulation to speak of, just squally weather.

TS Jerry. I know I said that yesterday was my last entry on this system,
but the NHC are just writing things I can't resist commenting on. Their
final entry was last night (after mine) and they upgraded the system
from a Tropical Depression to a TS again! It makes no sense. It was
11pm so maybe they were tired. This is what they wrote:

"CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE
LAST ADVISORY. AS JERRY ACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT
DATA...HENCE THE APPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM."

Umm... I don't see how "no longer a tropical cyclone" can be upgraded to
a "tropical storm"? Answers on a postcard please.

Right, that *really* is my final entry on Jerry (until the next one ;) ).

And enough picking on the NHC (for now). I agree to disagree on this
particular storm. Generally, I think they do a good (and difficult) job.

I'll be back.
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD Jerry and BIG BLOB (and little blob): September 24, Update B

BIG BLOB (Technical Term):
I will start with the blob that is, perhaps, the most worrisome to me at
the moment. Although the NHC have not yet given it an official
designation, I am writing about it so that those in the Caribbean (and
beyond) can keep an eye on it. It is at ~ 11N, 33W on the southern edge of
a high in the Atlantic, and following the edge of the high that path takes
it into the Caribbean and then turning northward into the Atlantic. The
good news (as you know, I'm ever the optimist) is that it is unlikely that
this high will stay the same shape over the next few days: the computer
models are even more land-friendly, and just curve it out into the
Atlantic before it gets to the Caribbean islands. It is currently on a
west-northwestward path.

I mentioned this blob in previous messages as the one in the far eastern
Atlantic. It is now in the central Atlantic with the deep convection
covering about 600 miles in the E-W direction and about 500 miles in the
N-S direction. There is good circulation with this system in the lower and
middle troposphere (the lower layer of the atmosphere, which extends to
about 12-13 km height), and circulation is slowly developing at higher
altitudes.

TD Jerry:
The NHC finally downgraded Tropical Storm Jerry to a Tropical Depression
at the 11am advisory this morning. So it was officially a tropical storm
for 24 hours. This is my last note on this "storm". Hurray hurray. Time to
celebrate! :)

Blobettes (oooh... a new "technical" term ;) ):
There's a much smaller blob (blobette) currently partying in the windward
islands (where else would blobettes party? :)). It is bringing some heavy
convection and only has circulation in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Not much more to say about this for now.

There is also an itsy bitsy blobette in the Gulf, but at the moment it
doesn't look like this will develop much. There is some convection
spreading northward over land (look up if you live anywhere in Louisiana
or Mississippi).

That's all for today folks (I feel like I should be chewing on a carrot
when I write that :) ).
J.

Blog archived at: http://www.jyotikastorms.blogspot.com/
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Jerry & other important blobs: September 24, Update A

Subtropical Storm Jerry aquired 'tropical characteristics' by the 11pm
advisory last night to become Tropical Storm Jerry. It was at a latitude
of about 37N, and over water temperatures of less than 26 deg C. As you
know, I disagree on naming this one in the first place so I won't even
begin to quibble over this designation. The deep convection continues to
remain minimal, and it did not reach persistent winds greater than 35 kt
(40 mph) all day yesterday (and even now), which is just 1 kt (1mph) above
the boundary between a T. Depression and a T. Storm. We had more deep
convective activity in the eastern Gulf and from Florida to Louisiana
yesterday than there was in this storm combined for the entire day.

Speaking of FL to LA - for a change, everyone but TX got rain yesterday.
:) It was a really impressive spread of activity with no real formation -
I quite enjoyed watching it on the satellite imagery. Looks like more
stuff (technical term) is heading for Louisiana today as well.

The other blobs.

1. There is some circulation at the lower level of the atmosphere just
east of the windward islands, at around 12N, 57W. It has some convection
with it, and is moving westward. It isn't very big so just something to
keep an eye on, especially once it enters the Caribbean.

2. The biggest blob (sounds like a sequel to "The Blob" - which, by the
way, is being remade yet again for release next year for the 50th
anniversary) is still out in the eastern/central Atlantic at ~10N, 30W.
This continues to have some impressive circulation for a system that is
still developing, as well as a large area of convection. At the moment it
looks like it will stay out in the Atlantic though.

More later I'm sure...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National
Weather Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run
away, run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Storm Jerry: September 23, Update A

I know some of you are expecting this already... Sunday Rant!

Great as they are, I *completely* disagree with the NHC on the naming of
this storm. I wish I had saved the GOES IR satellite image from earlier
this morning to show you how much this storm has fallen apart between the
5am and 11am advisories. I have saved the 11am image, but need a
comparison image to make the point. I had a quick look around on the web
but can't find an archive of those images. I can't believe they have named
yet another storm this year which does not warrant it. Grrr arrrgh
(cartoon steam coming out of my ears). That takes the total "named storms"
up to 10, of which I think at least 3 (or is it 4 now?) shouldn't have
been named.

The NHC justification in the 11am discussion: "AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS
INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND
SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE
HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL
STORM JERRY."

First, 0807 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) was at ~4am Eastern Daylight
Time (EDT) this morning. Their 5am EDT advisory had moved it from a low up
to a subtropical depression, which I agree with. But I guess they didn't
look at the latest images for their 11am advisory. It is amazing what you
can see if you look at the latest information - what a novel idea, hey?
Maybe this would explain why I saw landfall for TD10 about 4 hours before
the offical agreement.

My second comment is that they upgraded this storm because they calculated
winds of 35 kt. Satellite wind speed categorization is not 100% accurate,
which is partly why there is a post-season analysis. Subtropical/tropical
storm winds are 34kt-63kt. Their estimate of wind speed is ~1 knot (!!!)
difference from the TS category - this is within the margin of error.

My final comment is a little more political (because as you all know,
science and politics are the same thing these days). It is good to know
that when the QuickScat satellite goes away, there will be fewer named
storms. Maybe insurance rates will come down then. Maybe I'll finally see
a cow jump over the moon. In case you don't remember, QuickScat was the
excuse at the "center of the storm" earlier this year when Bill Proenza
(head of the NHC for about 5 minutes) was fired. To sum up that fiasco: he
said that information from QuickScat is needed but the NHC staff didn't
agree and said that QuickScat winds aren't as important and their analysis
would not be compromised if this data was not available.

There is even less deep convection in this system at this time than when I
wrote my earlier report.

When the NHC does their post-season analysis, I wonder if they ever
'down-grade' a storm. I know storms have been upgraded. Did I already say
this earlier this year? I've been thinking it for a while.

Grr...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] Subtropical Depression 11 & other blobs: September 23, Update A

Subtropical Depression 11:

There's been a persistent area of circulation way out in the subtropical
Atlantic (36N, 46W) for a few days (nowhere near land, and on a road to
nowhere). Yesterday the convection began to increase so in the early hours
of this morning (5am) it was officially designated Subtropical Depression
11. Although the forecast calls for continued strengthening to a named
"tropical" storm (beginning with the next advisory), at the moment I don't
see that happening. It is over cold water temperatures of 24-25 deg C,
which is below the 26.5C value for storm maintenance. Also, in the last
few hours it looks like the deep convective activity has fallen apart. The
center of circulation is broad and is encased in dry air. This system is
headng in a general north-northeastward direction, so no-one need be
concerned with this (unless you happen to be on a boat out in the middle
of the Atlantic).

Other Blobs:

1. There is a large area of convective activity and general cloudiness
stretching from Central America to the northern Gulf of Mexico and a bit
of circulation near the Yucatan, close to sea level. The circulation was
stronger yesterday but weakend when crossing the Yucatan Peninsula. The
only reason I mention it is because it is emerging into the Gulf (west of
the Loop Current) and I'll be keeping an eye on it.

2. There is an area of circulation about 450 miles east of the windward
islands. It is quite far south, at 10N, 55W. It has some convection east
of the center of circulation. If this doesn't move slightly northward or
develop soon, it may not develop at all before it gets too close to the S.
American landmass.

3. The one I'll really be watching closely is the blob that is out in the
eastern Atlantic, now west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. It is
still quite far away at ~9N, 27W, but there is some good circulation and
heavy convection already associated with this system.

I guess you'll be hearing from me later. That should make it a happy
Sunday for you. :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and
the National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TD 10: September 22, Update A

Tropical Depression? what tropical depression? According to the NHC, TD 10
made official landfall near Fort Walton Beach (FL) about four hours after
I sent out the previous note. The only revelation I have to report since
yesterday is that what I thought was the Panama City area actually turns
out to be the Fort Walton Beach area. Oops. Sorry panhandle residents -
hey, at least I can locate the US on a map. ;)

So landfall was where I said it looked like it was happening, just four
hours before official landfall (I was clearly caught in a time loop
thingy...now if only I could figure out how to "see" the lottery numbers).

It is/was still a rain event, so I expect there are a lot of soggy leaves
out there.

This is my last entry on TD 10.

On to other things. For those of you who like to look at the satellite
images on a daily basis because it is "fun", there are a number of things
the NHC are keeping an eye on. Some of them don't look like developing to
me, and none of them are formally TDs yet. At least two that I will be
watching include:
1. a broad area of convection (a lot of convection) in the northwestern
Caribbean, which has some circulation. It's sort of moving over the
Yucatan peninsula at the moment.
2. way way out in the eastern Atlantic, south of the Cape Verde Islands is
an area of circulation and convection. It is very broad, but roughly in
the vicinity of 8N, 22W.

I have to go now and concentrate on those winning lottery numbers. Have a
good weekend. ;)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression 10: September 21, Update A

TD 10 was formally designated earlier today, but it is still a very
poorly defined system. The upper level low is to the south of the
"center of circulation" - I put that in quotes because it is not easy to
see where that is. From the satellite images, it looks like the center
is already making landfall in the region around or just east of Panama
City in Florida, but as I said it is tricky finding the center. Not that
it matters where the center is because most of the rainfall activity is
away from it, as you can see from any satellite images. This is not a
wind event but a rain-storm event.

Luckily it didn't get too close to the Loop Current at all, so it
remained a minor system. :)

Not much more to say at the moment. It will bring rain along the
northern Gulf coast. Winds at 2pm EST were about 35 mph and it was
moving at 11mph in a northwestward direction.

If there's any change or I have some amazing revelation that I
absolutely have to share with you all, I'll send another note out later.

Otherwise, tomorrow. :)
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Florida Blob: September 20, Update A

If this system is going to get "interesting" it will most probably happen
later today or tomorrow. For now it is not yet a Tropical Depression and
is a weak system. The NHC will be sending in a plane later today to
investigate the system.

The center of circulation in the upper atmosphere has not moved much and
is still lurking (suspiciously of course - how else can you lurk? ;) )
just off the southwest Florida coast. However, the lower and mid-level
atmospheric circulations are better aligned and are mostly over the water
just off the west coast of Florida. The circulation is still quite large
at the lower levels (so not very organized) compared to the higher level.

The western edge of this system is close to interacting with the deep warm
waters of the Loop Current, which is the Gulf part of the Florida
Current-Gulf Stream system. As the westward (or southwestward) movement
continues, from an ocean point of view the conditions are "happy happy"
for storm development. In the atmosphere things are also looking good for
development - there is low wind shear. But the system is still quite
dispersed and hasn't fully got its act together.

You can see for yourself what the conditions are like over the surface of
the ocean off the west Florida coast because buoys out there are returning
data via satellite. Some of these buoys are part of the University of
South Florida's Coastal Ocean Monitoring and Prediction System (COMPS).

1. Go to http://comps.marine.usf.edu/

2. On the map, click on #22 or #20 (buoys) and you'll see a table with
information on wind speed, pressure etc.

3. Scroll towards the bottom of the page

4. Click on the 'plots' tab under the 24 hour or 5 day meteorological data
and you can see how the pressure has been slowly dropping over the last
day or so.

These buoys form part of a larger effort to develop a Coastal Ocean
Observing System (COOS) for the US. Not all areas of the US coast have
such observations available in "real-time" and it takes time, money, and
trained folks to install and maintain something like this. A COOS includes
buoys, coastal stations, radars, moving observing platforms, satellite
data and models, all working towards providing more information about the
coastal oceans to address topics like storm surge and hurricane research
or harmful algal blooms (like Red Tide), or to assist in search and rescue
operations (for example - there are many other uses).

I'll send out another missive if things change today.
Have a lovely day :)
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] The Florida Blob and the Remains of Ingrid: September 29, Update A

I know some of you are thinking that I've fallen asleep on the job with
such a lot of convection just off the Florida coast and over parts of
Florida. I was debating whether or not to send something out yesterday
evening, but there have been a few questions about it since then, so I
thought I'd let you know what is going on and why there hasn't been an
official classification to this system.

This mass of activity we have over Florida at the moment originated as
part of a front that came down from the north. The circulation
(associated with a low - so counterclockwise circulation) was initially
confined to the upper regions of the troposphere (the lowest layer of
the atmosphere) at about 10-12km above the ground. But since yesterday
afternoon and evening, the circulation has been extending downward, and
there is now circulation at sea level as well. At sea level it is not
as well defined as it is in the upper levels. The upper level
circulation is centered over southwest Florida, the lower level
circulation is a bit farther east. The convection that is off the east
coast is a result of the deep warm waters of the Florida Current/Gulf
Stream system. This system has not moved much in the past 24 hours and
because it is slow to develop and is over land, it is not yet strong
enough to be a Tropical Depression. As you have probably heard on the
weather news, we can expect rain over part of Florida. I prefer rainy
and cloudy weather. My kind of day ... and it was /is fascinating to
watch this develop yesterday and today - right over Florida. Very cool. :)

The other thing that has not moved much in the past 24+ hours is the
remains of Ingrid, which is still loitering off the north-eastern edge
of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic, and is producing as much
convection as she possibly can in the unfavorable environment she is in.
There is still some low level circulation, but the really strong wind
shear environment over the past few days knocked a lot out of the
system. The NHC stopped issuing advisories on this a couple of days ago.
I didn't say anything because there was (is) still some circulation. It
is unlikely that this will re-develop, so this is most likely my last
entry on this system.

More later,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Depression Ingrid: September 15, Update A

The strong wind shear really took it's toll on TS Ingrid, now a Tropical
Depression. So although she still has some decent circulation, there is
not much convection. But to mis-quote Monty Python: 'She's not dead yet'.
:)

She is still moving over waters warmer than 28 deg C, but is also still in
the region of high wind shear and will remain in that for another couple
of days.

The low that was digging into the high pressure that allowed her some
north-westward movement weakend yesterday and the high pressure
re-developed, which is why she is back to moving a little more westward
today, at 12 mph. But the high is still not very robust, and there is room
today/tonight for a bit more northwestward movement before she bumps up
against the southern edge of the high again. However, there is not much
point in talking about the track because there's not much of a storm at
the moment.

There is a good chance that she will survive the wind shear and
re-intensify in a couple of days. I will send out another note when there
is a change in this storm (either she's gone, or she improved).

Have a lovely weekend,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Ingrid: September 14, Update A

TD 8 became Tropical Storm Ingrid in the Atlantic last night, but this
poor little storm is struggling to stay alive.

Track: The high pressure in the Atlantic that was responsible for
keeping Dean and Felix so far south continued to erode yesterday and
there is now a lower pressure gap in the Atlantic which this storm could
pass through - so I am now more convinced that she might stay in the
Atlantic compared to two days ago. For now, she will continue on the
general west-northwest to northwest path.

Intensity: With such a weak system it was not easy to see the center of
circulation in the satellite images this morning, so I was waiting to
see what the hurricane plane would return. They are out there at the
moment, and have located the center at 15.2N, 50W. She is heading into
a region of even stronger wind shear from the west, and she is
surrounded by dry air, both of which will inhibit intensification.
However, she is also simultaneously reaching warmer water temperatures
of 28 deg C at the surface, but also a bit warmer with depth which will
help to sustain her.

The NHC currently have her going from a TS to a Tropical Depression by
Sunday morning and remaining a TD after that. She is looking a little
weaker now than she did this morning, but it is too soon to say if
that's a diurnal thing to a longer-term decline. Her currently max. wind
speed it 45 mph - a weak system.

If there's any change I'll send out another note later, otherwise tomorrow.

But before you all run away, I have some interesting news. Some clever
and funny guys from the NWS have figured out exactly why Humberto became
a Hurricane so soon before landfall. I'm very impressed. This is their
finding:

"The Spurs Rule for Land-Falling Hurricanes in Texas:
Since The Admiral (David Robinson) put on a Spurs uniform, a hurricane
will strike Texas only in the years when the San Antonio Spurs win the
NBA Championship. Chart:

http://ocglw1.marine.usf.edu/~jyotika/spurs_hurricane_chart.jpg"

Ciao,
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto & TD#8: September 13, Update A

TS Humberto:

Sneaky storm Humberto did reach hurricane strength about 1.5-2 hours
before making landfall as a Category 1 storm with max. winds of 85 mph.
If only all hurricanes could be like that. He made landfall at about 2am
and has now been downgraded back to a TS. So I was wrong yesterday when
I thought the land and wind shear would be enough to keep him as a
mid-sized Tropical Storm. The NHC did expect an intensification, but I
think no-one expected that much of an intensification. What this shows
is that us scientist-types still don't know why some storms intensify...
hmmm... the words 'job security' come to mind.

He made landfall in northern TX, close to the TX/LA border and is
heading in-land. He still has a lot of moisture so all those in his path
can expect rain, rain and er... rain. Maybe floods. And did I mention rain?

O.k. enough sillyness. This is my last entry on Humberto.

TD#8:

Although this system has some decent circulation, there is just not a
lot of convection - and it has decreased in the last few hours. The
system is surrounded by dry air which is being entrained. The NHC said
that looking back at the satellite winds from Quickscat, it looks like
TD 8 might have reached Tropical Storm strength for a few hours, but
it's back down to a TD and as they didn't see it at the time (they did
have a busy 24 hours with Humberto) it didn't get named (Ingrid would be
the next one). What would we do without those satellite winds?

The official track has also been shifted a little more to the left, i.e.
the cone at 5 days covers a little more of the Caribbean than it did
yesterday - which I would have agreed with yesterday. But the pressure
map from overnight shows me that the high has weakened a bit, and
there's more room for the storm to move in a northwestward direction
instead of as westward as it looked yesterday. So maybe the track will
be shifted back to the right later today. I'm curious to see what the
next pressure map contains later today.

I'll send out another update when this system is not so depressed :)

Toodles,
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] TS Humberto and TD#8: September 12, Update C

TS Humberto:

A tenacious system, he's still in the Gulf and hasn't made landfall. The
track moved a little closer to the TX/LA border, which is more in
alignment with where I think he will make landfall. He is now officially
moving north-northeast at ~7mph. The north-northeast motion means he is
heading from the '9' on my earlier Dali clock image to the '10' or '11' on
the clock face. So he's beginning to make that curve. The center is
passing close to Galveston at the moment, but because of the orientation
of the TX coastline (also along a north-east axis), he hasn't yet made
landfall.

His wind speeds are 50mph, so he's still a weak-to-mid TS. Although the
water temps are warm, with the land interaction and the wind shear I don't
think he will intensify much more than this before landfall.

TD#8:

I think the computer models initially incorrectly predicted the long-term
track of this storm. It is going more westward than the current center of
the cone of uncertainty shows, and I still think it is going to move into
the Caribbean instead of staying in the Atlantic. I don't remember what
the exact model tracks were earlier today, but I think some of them have
now shifted to a more westward track, and a larger number of them bring it
into the Caribbean. We might see this track shift reflected in the next
NHC advisory (or the one after that).

This storm is one that I will watch closely. It is too soon to tell where
it will go, and the intensity depends on the track (it is still, after
all, only a Tropical Depression). I have my thoughts on this, but I am not
going to comment further on until I've seen the pressure fields tomorrow.

Until tomorrow...
J.
-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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[Jyo_hurricane] Tropical Storm Humberto & Tropical Depression #8: September 12, Update B

TS Humberto:

The storm that is in the Gulf off the northern Texas coast just got
upgraded to Tropical Storm Humberto (not wanting to be a storm with no
name, he zipped through the Tropical Depression phase in ~three hours -
after I sent out the last update). He is interacting with land, and
landfall will be overnight in northern Texas or near the TX/LA border -
it's not very easy to pinpoint the center of circulation. He is moving
northwards and will continue in that general direction because he is on
the western edge of a high pressure system (which will be mentioned
again in the TD#8 discussion).

He's about 70 miles south-southwest of Galveston and is moving north at
6mph. He is over very warm water with sea surface temperatures greater
than 30 deg C. Max. winds are near 45 mph (39kt; TS: 39-73mph, 34-63kt)
so he is a weak system but he does have a lot of moisture, so this will
be mostly a rain event for TX,LA, and possibly states farther inland.
He's in some moderate wind shear, and is also interacting with land, so
there is not much opportunity for him to get much bigger.

A plane will be in the system shortly, so I will send out another update
after the NHC has issued it's 5pm (eastern time) advisory.

And because this is mid-September there's another system swirling away
out there in the Atlantic.

Tropical Depression 8:

This system is also moving along the edge of that high pressure system I
mentioned above. I used this analogy last year, but as I can barely
remember what I said last week, who will remember this from then? :)
Imagine the high pressure in the Atlantic as a clock face - a Dali clock
which is all distorted but still has a 12, 3, 6, and 9. These storms all
move in a clockwise direction around this distorted clock. The trick is
that the clock face (high pressure) never stays still and the edges are
constantly moving as well, so forecasting a storm track is really all
about how the pressure patterns change.

At the moment TD#8 is on the southern side at around 6 and heading
westward(ish), and TS Humberto is at around 9 and heading northward.

TD#8 will continue in a general westward (clockwise) direction around
this high until it can turn north-westward or until it hits land. H.
Dean and H. Felix both hit land before turning because the high extended
quite far south-westward. It is not as robust now, however at the moment
it looks like the general westward direction will continue for the next
few days. The models all have it staying in the Atlantic but to me it
looks like it will enter the Caribbean in about ~4 to 5 days. I'll know
more tomorrow when I get the latest pressure maps.

It is about to enter a region of low wind shear and the temperatures are
at about 27 degs C (enough to sustain a system). The center of
circulation is east of the convection, which is also helping to keep
this system down (in intensity).

More later....
J.

-------------------------------
DISCLAIMER:
These remarks are just what I think/see regarding tropical storms - not
the opinion of any organization I represent. If you are making an
evacuation decision, please heed your local emergency management and the
National Hurricane Center's official forecast and the National Weather
Service announcements. This is not an official forecast. If I "run away,
run away" (Monty Python), I'll let you know.
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